Impact of West Nile Virus on American Crows in the Northeastern United States,and Its Relevance to Existing Monitoring Programs

We assessed the changes in abundance of American crows in the northeastern U.S. following the arrival of West Nile virus (WNV), with two aims. First, we determined the impact and spatial extent of the initial epizootic that began in New York City. Second, we examined whether two existing surveillance programs monitoring for WNV (data from 2000 New York State dead bird testing, and 2000 mosquito testing) accurately predicted the observed impact of the disease on crow populations as measured using data from the North American Christmas Bird Count. The rationale for this second aim was that the two WNV surveys were new and with unknown biases and sensitivity, while the Christmas Bird Count has existed for decades, providing monitoring before the arrival of WNV in North America and a long time series of data useful in gauging sensitivity. As a result, the Christmas Bird Count represents a good benchmark against which to compare the two new surveillance programs. Consistency among these three sources of information was low, suggesting that while dead bird and mosquito surveys can currently indicate the later stages of severe outbreaks, the ability to consistently detect early stages of outbreaks is questionable.     

The statistical analysis of truncated data: application to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak

An outbreak of anthrax occurred in the city of Sverdlovsk in Russia in the spring of 1979. The outbreak was due to the inhalation of spores that were accidentally released from a military microbiology facility. In response to the outbreak a public health intervention was mounted that included distribution of antibiotics and vaccine. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply statistical methodology to analyse the Sverdlovsk outbreak, and in particular to estimate the incubation period of inhalational anthrax and the number of deaths that may have been prevented by the public health intervention. The data available for analysis from this common source epidemic are the incubation periods of reported deaths. The statistical problem is that incubation periods are truncated because some individuals may have had their deaths prevented by the public health interventions and thus are not included in the data. However, it is not known how many persons received the intervention or how efficacious was the intervention. A likelihood function is formulated that accounts for the effects of truncation. The likelihood is decomposed into a binomial likelihood with unknown sample size and a conditional likelihood for the incubation periods. The methods are extended to allow for a phase-in of the intervention over time. Assuming a lognormal model for the incubation period distribution, the median and mean incubation periods were estimated to be 11.0 and 14.2 days respectively. These estimates are longer than have been previously reported in the literature. The death toll from the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak could have been about 14% larger had there not been a public health intervention; however, the confidence intervals are wide (95% CI 0-61%). The sensitivity of the results to model assumptions and the parametric model for the incubation period distribution are investigated. The results are useful for determining how long antibiotic therapy should be continued in suspected anthrax cases and also for estimating the ultimate number of deaths in a new outbreak in the absence of any public health interventions.     

The pathogenicity of strains of Salmonella paratyphi B and Salmonella java

AIMS: To relate the diseases caused by strains of Salmonella paratyphi B and S. java to pathogenic mechanisms expressed by these bacteria for the purpose of organism discrimination. METHODS AND RESULTS: Epidemiological data relating to cases of disease caused by strains of S. paratyphi B and S. java, isolated over a 10-year period, were analysed with respect to patients' symptoms, particularly those involving enteric fever. Strains of S. paratyphi B and S. java were also examined for a range of known pathogenic mechanisms. Infection with S. paratyphi B involved pyrexia in 12.5% of patients compared with 2.2% of patients infected with S. java. These organisms could not be differentiated based on the pathogenic properties examined. CONCLUSIONS: Strains of S. paratyphi B appear not to be a major cause of enteric fever but primarily a cause of gastroenteritis, in common with S. java. Both organisms express similar pathogenic mechanisms, and strains of S. java are probably d-tartrate utilizing variants of S. paratyphi B. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Strains of S. paratyphi B are very closely related organisms, primarily causing gastroenteritis. From this study it would appear that strains of S. paratyphi B are not a major cause of enteric fever.     

Possible relationship of PFGE patterns of Moraxella catarrhalis between hospital- and community-acquired respiratory infections in a community hospital

We describe a prospective study of molecular analysis of Moraxella catarrhalis isolated from a community hospital. Our study was designed to investigate the possible relationship of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns of M. catarrhalis between hospital- and community-acquired respiratory infections. A nosocomial outbreak of M. catarrhalis was observed between September 2000 and September 2001. During the study period, 40 strains of M. catarrhalis were isolated from a total of 32 patients with respiratory infections (26 strains from 18 inpatients, and 14 strains from 14 outpatients). We compared the PFGE patterns in 40 strains of M. catarrhalis isolated from the respiratory tract of the study patients. The genomic types of M. catarrhalis were classified into three PFGE patterns (A, B, and C). Interestingly, the nosocomial outbreak of M. catarrhalis included two patterns (A and B). Of the three patterns, two patterns (A and B) were found in both inpatients and outpatients. More interestingly, two subtypes of pattern B (B1 and B4) were simultaneously found in both inpatients and outpatients. Our results indicated that PFGE with SmaI chromosomal digestion is a suitable technique to establish the inter-strain genetic relatedness of M. catarrhalis, and suggested that the outbreak of M. catarrhalis occasionally included miscellaneous PFGE patterns. The results also showed that PFGE patterns of M. catarrhalis isolates were similar between hospital- and community-acquired respiratory infections. Analysis of the subtypes suggested that there might be some association between hospital- and community-acquired respiratory infections caused by M. catarrhalis.     

An approach for post‐market monitoring of potential environmental effects of Bt‐maize expressing Cry1Ab on natural enemies

Post‐market monitoring (PMM) consistent with Swiss and European Union legislation should ensure the detection and prevention of adverse effects on the environment possibly deriving from commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops. Insect‐resistant GM crops (such as Bt‐maize) raise particular questions regarding disturbances of biological control functions provided by beneficial insects such as predators and parasitoids (so‐called natural enemies). Consensus among regulators, scientists and the agricultural biotech industry on appropriate PMM plans allowing the detection and possibly prevention of such adverse effects is still lacking. The aims of this study were to identify the necessity for PMM of Bt‐maize expressing Cry1Ab on natural enemies and to develop an appropriate PMM plan. The approach chosen consisted in determining what type of monitoring is most appropriate to address potential effects of Bt‐maize on natural enemies during commercial cultivation. This included identifying whether there remain substantial scientific uncertainties that would support case‐specific monitoring. Existing pre‐market risk assessment data indicate that Bt‐maize (Cry1Ab) comprises a negligible risk for disturbances in biological control functions of natural enemies. As a consequence, a faunistic monitoring of specific groups of natural enemies is not considered an appropriate approach to detect failures in biological control functions. Alternatively, an approach is proposed that consists in indirectly analysing biological control functions by surveying outbreaks of maize herbivores. Unusual herbivore outbreaks could indicate failures in biological control functions of natural enemies. Data could be collected via questionnaires addressed to farmers growing Bt‐maize. Significant correlations between unusual occurrences of specific maize herbivores and the cultivation of Bt‐maize would subsequently need specific studies to determine possible causalities in more detail. The here proposed approach has the advantage of covering different natural enemy groups. It represents a cost‐effective strategy to obtain scientifically sound data as a basis for regulatory decision‐making.     

Ecological mechanisms of population change during outbreaks of the spruce budworm

Abstract.  1. Stage-specific survival and recruitment of spruce budworm were measured by frequent sampling of foliage in four outbreak populations over a 15-year period in Ontario and Quebec, Canada.
2. Patterns of change in population density during the outbreak collapse phase were closely linked to changes in survival of the late immature stages, and were determined largely by the impact of natural enemies.
3. Host-plant feedback also contributed significantly to survival patterns throughout the outbreak: annual defoliation influenced survival of fourth and fifth instars and fecundity while cumulative defoliation influenced survival of the very early larval stages (first and second) via impacts on stand condition.
4. Inclusion of this host-plant feedback reveals spruce budworm population dynamics as a function of density-related trophic interactions that vary in their order and strength of influence over time. This view re-introduces the importance of forest interactions as a component of dynamics of the spruce budworm.     

Multiple McNemar Tests

Summary Methods for performing multiple tests of paired proportions are described. A broadly applicable method using McNemar's exact test and the exact distributions of all test statistics is developed; the method controls the familywise error rate in the strong sense under minimal assumptions. A closed form (not simulation‐based) algorithm for carrying out the method is provided. A bootstrap alternative is developed to account for correlation structures. Operating characteristics of these and other methods are evaluated via a simulation study. Applications to multiple comparisons of predictive models for disease classification and to postmarket surveillance of adverse events are given.     

Density-dependent melanism in sub-arctic populations of winter moth larvae (Operophtera brumata)

Abstract.  1. The aim of this 4-year observational study was to test for the presence of direct and delayed density-dependent larval melanism in the geometrid moth species Operophtera brumata (winter moth) in northern Norway.
2. Data from many populations with a wide range of population densities in time and space facilitated statistical analyses that could separate the effects of current and past density. The data also included different phases of the 10-year population cycle of this species so that eventual non-linear density effects due to population phase could be detected.
3. The results showed that the prevalence of melanism had a strong positive, linear relation to population density within years, whereas there was no evidence for a delayed effect from the year before or dependency on the phase of the population cycle.
4. In combination, these results limit the range of possible explanations of larval melanism in this outbreaking species. The possible reasons why winter moth larvae might benefit from crowding-induced melanism are discussed.     

Evaluation of light-emitting diodes as attractant for sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in northeastern Brazil

Hoover Pugedo light traps were modified for use with green and blue-light-emitting diodes to trap phlebotomine sandflies in northeastern Brazil. A total of 2,267 specimens belonging to eight genera and 15 species were sampled. The predominant species were Nyssomyia whitmani(34.41%) and Micropygomyia echinatopharynx(17.25%).The green LED trap prevailed over the blue and control lights; however, no statistically significant difference could be detected among the three light sources. Even without statistical significance, we suggest using LEDs as an attractant for the capture of sandflies because of several advantages over the conventional method with incandescent lamps.