Crop production structure and stability under climate change in South America

Southern South America is expected to play an increasingly important role in global food production, but climate change could seriously threaten it. Here we have analysed long‐term historical data for major crops (rice, oats, barley, sunflower, soybean, sorghum, wheat, maize) at subnational scale to (a) look for common features among crop yield dynamics, evaluating their structure and implications for the persistence of that crop; (b) address complex crop responses to changes in environmental growing conditions; and (c) identify climate impact hotspots that are crucial for adaptation and mitigation. We have proposed a novel methodological approach based on dynamics systems in order to understand the processes behind annual crop yield fluctuations. We report the results of general patterns in the internal process (biophysical adjustments by rapid negative feedbacks) regulating crop production and analyse how it influences crop persistence and yield ceilings. The structure of a crop yield dynamic system defines its behaviour, but climate variations could displace it from yield equilibrium and affect its stability. Our findings suggest that weather conditions have a stronger impact on yield growth at high rather than at low yield levels (non‐additive impacts). This allows agriculture management to be refined and applied more efficiently, weakening the relationship between crop productivity and climate change and predicting the response of crop production to yield‐improvement strategies. We have identified those crops and regions which are most vulnerable to the current climate change trends in southern South American agroecosystems. Our results allow us to point to new ways to enhance self‐regulatory success, maximising the efficiency of crop production and reducing climate impacts. We have discussed important implications for crop management and climate change mitigation in an area where agriculture plays a key role in its socioeconomic and ecologic dimensions.     

Patterns and processes in shorebird survival rates: a global review

Changes in demographic rates underpin changes in population size, and understanding demographic rates can greatly aid the design and development of strategies to maintain populations in the face of environmental changes. However, acquiring estimates of demographic parameters at relevant spatial scales is difficult. Measures of annual survival rates can be particularly challenging to obtain because large‐scale, long‐term tracking of individuals is difficult and the resulting data contain many inherent biases. In recent years, advances in both tracking and analytical techniques have meant that, for some taxonomic groups, sufficient numbers of survival estimates are available to allow variation within and among species to be explored. Here we review published estimates of annual adult survival rates in shorebird species across the globe, and construct models to explore the phylogenetic, geographical, seasonal and sex‐based variation in survival rates. Models of 295 survival estimates from 56 species show that survival rates calculated from recoveries of dead individuals or from return rates of marked individuals are significantly lower than estimates from mark–recapture models. Survival rates also vary across flyways, largely as a consequence of differences in the genera that have been studied and the analytical methods used, with published estimates from the Americas and from smaller shorebirds (Actitis, Calidris and Charadrius spp.) tending to be underestimated. By incorporating the analytical method used to generate each estimate within a mixed model framework, we provide method‐corrected species‐specific and genus‐specific adult annual survival estimates for 52 species of 15 genera.     

Strong and stable geographic differentiation of swamp buffalo maternal and paternal lineages indicates domestication in the China/Indochina border region

The swamp type of the Asian water buffalo is assumed to have been domesticated by about 4000 years BP, following the introduction of rice cultivation. Previous localizations of the domestication site were based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation within China, accounting only for the maternal lineage. We carried out a comprehensive sampling of China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Nepal and Bangladesh and sequenced the mtDNA Cytochrome b gene and control region and the Y‐chromosomal ZFY, SRY and DBY sequences. Swamp buffalo has a higher diversity of both maternal and paternal lineages than river buffalo, with also a remarkable contrast between a weak phylogeographic structure of river buffalo and a strong geographic differentiation of swamp buffalo. The highest diversity of the swamp buffalo maternal lineages was found in south China and north Indochina on both banks of the Mekong River, while the highest diversity in paternal lineages was in the China/Indochina border region. We propose that domestication in this region was later followed by introgressive capture of wild cows west of the Mekong. Migration to the north followed the Yangtze valley as well as a more eastern route, but also involved translocations of both cows and bulls over large distances with a minor influence of river buffaloes in recent decades. Bayesian analyses of various migration models also supported domestication in the China/Indochina border region. Coalescence analysis yielded consistent estimates for the expansion of the major swamp buffalo haplogroups with a credibility interval of 900 to 3900 years BP. The spatial differentiation of mtDNA and Y‐chromosomal haplotype distributions indicates a lack of gene flow between established populations that is unprecedented in livestock.     

Water-energy dynamics,habitat heterogeneity,history, and broad-scale patterns of mammal diversity

Numerous hypotheses on diversity patterns are often presented as if they were mutually exclusive. However, because of multicollinearity, correlational analyses are not able to distinguish the causal effects of different factors on these patterns. For this reason, we examine the interrelationships among current climate, habitat heterogeneity and evolutionary history by partitioning the variation in both total and non-volant mammal species richness in the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, it is possible to determine the variation accounted for by each one of these three components that is not shared by the others, and the respective overlaps. More specifically, we hypothesize that (H₁) in warm temperate zones, a small increase in the available energy has strong negative effects on mammal richness if water availability is limiting; (H₂) there are functional relationships between woody plant species richness (WOOD) and the richness of mammal species; (H₃) there is a signal of evolutionary history in contemporary patterns of species richness, and (H₄) mammal richness and the historical variable mean root distance (MRD) respond to the same driving forces. Additionally, we also test for spatial autocorrelation. We found a sharp nonlinear decrease in mammal richness with increasing energy and a monotonic increase with increasing water availability. Moreover, an interaction term between these two climate factors appeared to be statistically significant, so H₁ could not be rejected. WOOD remained significant after partialling out both current climate and MRD at the family level (MRDf), supporting H₂. The relationship between mammal diversity and MRD averaged by species richness was found to be spurious, but there appeared a significant historical signal using MRDf (this supports H₃). The overlaps among these factors are consistent with H₄ and suggest that water-energy dynamics have probably been active drivers throughout evolutionary history with habitat heterogeneity, and biotic interactions playing an important role.     

Models for predicting enteric methane emissions from dairy cows in North America,Europe, and Australia and New Zealand

There are several models in the literature for predicting enteric methane (CH₄) emissions. These models were often developed on region or country‐specific data and may not be able to predict the emissions successfully in every region. The majority of extant models require dry matter intake (DMI) of individual animals, which is not routinely measured. The objectives of this study were to (i) evaluate performance of extant models in predicting enteric CH₄ emissions from dairy cows in North America (NA), Europe (EU), and Australia and New Zealand (AUNZ) and (ii) explore the performance using estimated DMI. Forty extant models were challenged on 55, 105, and 52 enteric CH₄ measurements (g per lactating cow per day) from NA, EU, and AUNZ, respectively. The models were ranked using root mean square prediction error as a percentage of the average observed value (RMSPE) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A modified model of Nielsen et al. (Acta Agriculturae Scand Section A, 63 , 2013 and 126) using DMI, and dietary digestible neutral detergent fiber and fatty acid contents as predictor variables, were ranked highest in NA (RMSPE = 13.1% and CCC = 0.78). The gross energy intake‐based model of Yan et al. (Livestock Production Science, 64 , 2000 and 253) and the updated IPCC Tier 2 model were ranked highest in EU (RMSPE = 11.0% and CCC = 0.66) and AUNZ (RMSPE = 15.6% and CCC = 0.75), respectively. DMI of cows in NA and EU was estimated satisfactorily with body weight and fat‐corrected milk yield data (RMSPE < 12.0% and CCC > 0.60). Using estimated DMI, the Nielsen et al. (2013) (RMSPE = 12.7 and CCC = 0.79) and Yan et al. (2000) (RMSPE = 13.7 and CCC = 0.50) models still predicted emissions in respective regions well. Enteric CH₄ emissions from dairy cows can be predicted successfully (i.e., RMSPE < 15%), if DMI can be estimated with reasonable accuracy (i.e., RMSPE < 10%).     

Plant responses to climatic extremes: within‐species variation equals among‐species variation

Within‐species and among‐species differences in growth responses to a changing climate have been well documented, yet the relative magnitude of within‐species vs. among‐species variation has remained largely unexplored. This missing comparison impedes our ability to make general predictions of biodiversity change and to project future species distributions using models. We present a direct comparison of among‐ versus within‐species variation in response to three of the main stresses anticipated with climate change: drought, warming, and frost. Two earlier experiments had experimentally induced (i) summer drought and (ii) spring frost for four common European grass species and their ecotypes from across Europe. To supplement existing data, a third experiment was carried out, to compare variation among species from different functional groups to within‐species variation. Here, we simulated (iii) winter warming plus frost for four grasses, two nonleguminous, and two leguminous forbs, in addition to eleven European ecotypes of the widespread grass Arrhenatherum elatius. For each experiment, we measured: (i) C/N ratio and biomass, (ii) chlorophyll content and biomass, and (iii) plant greenness, root ¹⁵N uptake, and live and dead tissue mass. Using coefficients of variation (CVs) for each experiment and response parameter, a total of 156 within‐ vs. among‐species comparisons were conducted, comparing within‐species variation in each of four species with among‐species variation for each seed origin (five countries). Of the six significant differences, within‐species CVs were higher than among‐species CVs in four cases. Partitioning of variance within each treatment in two of the three experiments showed that within‐species variability (ecotypes) could explain an additional 9% of response variation after accounting for the among‐species variation. Our observation that within‐species variation was generally as high as among‐species variation emphasizes the importance of including both within‐ and among‐species variability in ecological theory (e.g., the insurance hypothesis) and for practical applications (e.g., biodiversity conservation).     

Neutral processes and species sorting in benthic microalgal community assembly: effects of tidal resuspension

Benthic microalgae (BMA) provide vital food resources for heterotrophs and stabilize sediments with their extracellular secretions. A central goal in ecology is to understand how processes such as species interactions and dispersal, contribute to observed patterns of species abundance and distribution. Our objectives were to assess the effects of sediment resuspension on microalgal community structure. We tested whether taxa‐abundance distributions could be predicted using neutral community models (NCMs) and also specific hypotheses about passive migration: (i) As migration decreases in sediment patches, BMA α‐diversity will decrease, and (ii) As migration decreases, BMA community dissimilarity (β‐diversity) will increase. Co‐occurrence indices (checkerboard score and variance ratio) were also computed to test for deterministic factors, such as competition and niche differentiation, in shaping communities. Two intertidal sites (mudflat and sand bar) differing in resuspension regime were sampled throughout the tidal cycle. Fluorometry and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis were utilized to investigate diatom community structure. Observed taxa‐abundances fit those predicted from NCMs reasonably well (R² of 0.68–0.93), although comparisons of observed local communities to artificial randomly assembled communities rejected the null hypothesis that diatom communities were assembled solely by stochastic processes. No co‐occurrence tests indicated a significant role for competitive exclusion or niche partitioning in microalgal community assembly. In general, predictions about relationships between migration and species diversity were supported for local community dynamics. BMA at low tide (lowest migration) exhibited reduced α‐diversity as compared to periods of immersion at both mudflat and sand bar sites. β‐diversity was higher during low tide emersion on the mudflat, but did not differ temporally at the sand bar site. In between‐site metacommunity comparisons, low‐ and high‐resuspension sites exhibited distinct community compositions while the low‐energy mudflats contained higher microalgal biomass and greater α‐diversity. To our knowledge this is the first study to test the relevance of neutral processes in structuring marine microalgal communities. Our results demonstrate a prominent role for stochastic factors in structuring local BMA community assembly, although unidentified nonrandom processes also appear to play some role. High passive migration, in particular, appears to help maintain species diversity and structure communities in both sand and muddy habitats.     

The evolution of sex roles in mate searching

Searching for mates is a critical stage in the life cycle of most internally, and many externally, fertilizing species. Males usually invest more in this costly activity than females, but the reasons for this are poorly understood. Previous models have shown that female‐biased parental investment, including anisogamy, does not by itself select for male‐biased mate searching, so it requires additional explanations. Here, we correct and expand upon earlier models, and present two novel hypotheses that might explain the evolution of male‐biased mate searching. The “carry‐over hypothesis” states that females benefit less from searching if the associated costs affect other stages of the life cycle, rather than arising only while searching. It is relevant to the evolution of morphological traits that improve searching efficiency but are also expressed in other contexts. The “mating window hypothesis” states that females benefit less from searching if their life cycle includes intervals during which the exact timing of mating does not matter for the appropriate timing of reproduction (e.g., due to sperm storage or delayed embryo implantation). Such intervals are more likely to exist for females given the general pattern of greater female parental investment. Our models shed new light on classic arguments about sex role evolution.