Spatial and temporal variations in species occurrence rate affect the accuracy of occurrence models

Aim Predictive models of species occurrence have potential for prioritizing areas for competing land uses. Before widespread application, however, it is necessary to evaluate performance using independent data and effective accuracy measures. The objectives of this study were to (1) compare the effects of species occurrence rate on model accuracy, (2) assess the effects of spatial and temporal variation in occurrence rate on model accuracy, and (3) determine if the number of predictor variables affected model accuracy. Location We predicted the distributions of breeding birds in three adjacent mountain ranges in the Great Basin (Nevada, USA). Methods For each of 18 species, we developed separate models using five different data sets — one set for each of 2 years (to address the effects of temporal variation), and one set for each of three possible pairs of mountain ranges (to address the effects of spatial variation). We evaluated each model with an independent data set using four accuracy measures: discrimination ability [area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)], correct classification rate (CCR), proportion of presences correctly classified (sensitivity), and proportion of absences correctly classified (specificity). Results Discrimination ability was not affected by occurrence rate, whereas the other three accuracy measures were significantly affected. CCR, sensitivity and specificity were affected by species occurrence rate in the evaluation data sets to a greater extent than in the model‐building data sets. Discrimination ability was the only accuracy measure affected by the number of variables in a model. Main conclusions Temporal variation in species occurrence appeared to have a greater impact than did spatial variation. When temporal variation in species distributions is great, the relative costs of omission and commission errors should be assessed and long‐term census data should be examined before using predictive models of occurrence in a management setting.     

Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in model results. We identify and discuss five areas of enquiry that are of high importance for species distribution modelling: (1) clarification of the niche concept; (2) improved designs for sampling data for building models; (3) improved parameterization; (4) improved model selection and predictor contribution; and (5) improved model evaluation. The challenges discussed in this essay do not preclude the need for developments of other areas of research in this field. However, they are critical for allowing the science of species distribution modelling to move forward.     

The role of spatial scale and the perception of large-scale species-richness patterns

Despite two centuries of exploration, our understanding of factors determining the distribution of life on Earth is in many ways still in its infancy. Much of the disagreement about governing processes of variation in species richness may be the result of differences in our perception of species‐richness patterns. Until recently, most studies of large‐scale species‐richness patterns assumed implicitly that patterns and mechanisms were scale invariant. Illustrated with examples and a quantitative analysis of published data on altitudinal gradients of species richness (n = 204), this review discusses how scale effects (extent and grain size) can influence our perception of patterns and processes. For example, a hump‐shaped altitudinal species‐richness pattern is the most typical (c. 50%), with a monotonic decreasing pattern (c. 25%) also frequently reported, but the relative distribution of patterns changes readily with spatial grain and extent. If we are to attribute relative impact to various factors influencing species richness and distribution and to decide at which point along a spatial and temporal continuum they act, we should not ask only how results vary as a function of scale but also search for consistent patterns in these scale effects. The review concludes with suggestions of potential routes for future analytical exploration of species‐richness patterns.     

Dispersal and influences on movement for Anoplophora glabripennis calculated from individual mark-recapture

We conducted an individual mark‐release‐recapture experiment on the beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis Motchulsky (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). This invasive beetle has been introduced from Asia to Europe and North America and poses a serious threat to several important species of tree. Eradication efforts may benefit from knowledge of dispersal behaviour. Trees were cut and held to determine emergence rate of A. glabripennis. Unique marks were painted onto 912 beetles released into a group of 165 trees in Gansu, China. Data on subsequent sightings of beetles were used in a truncated diffusion model to calculate flight distances. Characteristics of the trees and climatic information were used in statistical tests for influence on movement. A total of 2245 sightings of beetles were observed and 29% of marked beetles were resighted. The scanning technique using binoculars was 90% effective in finding beetles and provided 81% accuracy for determining the sex of the beetles. Experimental manipulation of density quantified how A. glabripennis congregated on unoccupied trees and were repulsed from crowded hosts. The seasonal emergence rate of adults declined exponentially from July 20 to August 5. The results suggested A. glabripennis fly to nearby host trees at a rate of 34% per day. Median flight distance was estimated at 20 m per day. Statistical analysis with a generalized linear model tested the beetle's propensity to leave a tree and distance of flight. Generally, beetle movement showed a significant response to beetle density, weather conditions, beetle size, and tree size, in that order. The techniques developed here improve on previous recapture techniques to quantify dispersal and can be useful for analysing populations of other organisms.     

A geometric morphometric approach to the study of ecogeographical and clinal variation in vervet monkeys

Aim To examine and visualize clines in size and shape of Cercopithecus aethiops Linneus, 1758 (Primate, Cercopithecidae) skulls, and to investigate environmental factors which might best explain the observed variation. Location Sub‐Saharan Africa. Methods Eighty‐six three‐dimensional anatomical landmarks were used to describe 306 skulls of adult C. aethiops sampled over its entire distribution. Geometric morphometric methods for the quantitative analysis of form variation were applied. Size and shape variables were computed and regressed onto geographical coordinates and environmental variables (elevation, temperature, rainfall, moisture and Shannon rainfall diversity index) using both linear and curvilinear models. Components (geographical, environmental, spatially structured environmental and residual) of ecogeographical variation in skull form were partitioned using partial regression. A novel approach for summarizing and visualizing nonlinear patterns of clinal variation using surface rendering of three‐dimensional shapes is presented. Results Clinal variation in size and shape was highly significant, and was best described by curvilinear models. There were strong similarities between females and males. The cline in size was especially pronounced, explaining up to about 40% of observed variation, and was mainly longitudinal rather than latitudinal. A major trend of clinal shape variation also occurred from west to east, and corresponded to an expansion of the face relative to the neurocranium in the west. In the east, skulls also tended to be deeper and with narrower zygomatic arches. Geography and the spatially structured environmental component were the major contributors to the explained variance in size in both sexes, but the proportion of variance explained by the latter was smaller in females. In contrast, geography and environment explained similar amounts of variation in shape and their contribution was about twice that of the spatially structured environmental component. About 60–80% of variation in skull form was not explained by any variable in the analysis. The main factors influencing skull size differed in females and males, with rainfall being very influential in males. Both female and male skull shapes were strongly affected by average annual rainfall. Main conclusions A strong spatial and environmental basis to variations in African vervet monkey skull form was evident. However, the observed pattern did not conform to predictions based on Bergmann's rule. Rainfall consistently emerged as an important predictor, which may contribute to intraspecific variation in the size and shape of vervet monkey skulls through its effect on habitat productivity.     

Interactive controls of herbivory and fluvial dynamics on landscape vegetation patterns on the Tanana River floodplain, interior Alaska

Aim  We examined the interactive effects of mammalian herbivory and fluvial dynamics on vegetation dynamics and composition along the Tanana River in interior Alaska.
Location  Model parameters were obtained from field studies along the Tanana River, Alaska between Fairbanks (64°50.50' N, 147°43.30' W) and Manley Hot Springs (65°0.0' N, 150°36.0' W).
Methods  We used a spatially explicit model of landscape dynamics (ALFRESCO) to simulate vegetation changes on a 1-year time-step. The model was run for 250 years and was replicated 100 times.
Results  Increases in herbivory decreased the proportion of early successional vegetation and increased the proportion of late successional vegetation on the simulated landscape. Erosion and accretion worked as antagonists to herbivory, increasing the amount of early successional vegetation and decreasing the amount of late successional vegetation. However, the interactive effects of herbivory and erosion/accretion were especially important in determining system response, particularly in early seral vegetation types. High erosion rates, when coupled with low herbivory, greatly increased the proportion of willow on the landscape. When coupled with high herbivory, however, they greatly increased the proportion of alder on the landscape. At low levels of herbivory, alder abundance peaked at intermediate levels of erosion/accretion.
Main conclusions  Neither erosion/accretion nor herbivory produced consistent landscape patterns that could be predicted independently of the other. These findings underscore the importance of the interactive effects of biotic and abiotic disturbances in shaping large-scale landscape vegetation patterns in boreal floodplain ecosystems – systems traditionally thought to be driven primarily by abiotic disturbance alone.     

GM1 Ganglioside: In Vivo and In Vitro Trophic Actions on Central Neurotransmitter Systems

Abstract: There is now substantial evidence that GM1 ganglioside is effective in partially correcting the consequences of neuroinjury in a number of in vivo and in vitro model systems. Although the molecular mechanism(s) and the substrates for the neurotrophic activity of the gangliosides are not fully understood, the published experimental work suggests that GM1 has antineurotoxic, neuroprotective, and neurorestorative effects on various central neurotransmitter systems. This review focuses attention on studies reporting that GM1 restores neuronal integrity and function in the brain of lesioned young as well as aged animals. Critical analysis of these studies can provide guidance for future ganglioside research and may point to novel approaches for treating neuroinjury and a variety of degenerative conditions, including aging.