Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes

Process‐based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ‐GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy‐covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model‐measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ‐GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (R_h). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.     

The demographic costs of nectar production in the desert perennial Prosopis glandulosa (Mimosoideae): a modular approach

Nectar production in angiosperms is considered to represent a reproductive cost, and has been associated with a decrease in fruit set or an overall decrease in the energetic budget of the plant. Populations of Prosopis glandulosa var. torreyana (honey mesquite) are a suitable system to evaluate the demographic costs of nectar production, as populations are composed of a 1:1 proportion of nectarful to nectarless individuals. The study was carried out in a population of 404 individuals of Prosopis g1andulosa var. torreyana found in an area with differing water availability in the Southern Chihuahuan Desert. The possible costs of nectar production were assessed on 1212 shoots of the honey mesquite that were tagged in 1994 and followed until 1998. We used two methods of analysis to describe the effect of nectar production on modular population dynamics: matrix analysis and log-xlinear models. Water availability and the varying environmental conditions affected plant growth, but nectar production did not have an effect on the demographic parameters we measured. The values of λ did not differ between nectar morphs and the only important effects we detected were the year to year variation in precipitation and microclimate differences at each site. Furthermore, the elasticity of each demographic process (growth, fecundity, retrogression and stasis) between nectar morphs did not differ. The log-linear models suggested a similar pattern but could discriminate the importance of each factor (nectar morph, year and site) on module fate. We were not able to detect a demographic cost of nectar production in the honey mesquite. The absence of a demographic response could be due to the negligible cost of producing nectar for this species or that the resources allocated for growth are different from those allocated for reproduction. Our results suggest that the modular fates of mesquites are mainly determined by environmental factors. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Polymorphic microsatellite loci from the red urchin,Strongylocentrotus franciscanus,with comments on heterozygote deficit

Strongylocentrotus sea urchins are common subjects for studies in developmental and cell biology, reproductive biology, ecology, and evolution. We report 14 microsatellite loci from the red urchin, S. franciscanus, isolated for the purpose of estimating paternal success of males in experimental group spawns. Most of these loci were found to be highly polymorphic in a population from British Columbia. A high frequency of null alleles appears responsible for heterozygote deficit at a majority of these loci, but if used with appropriate caution, these microsatellites should be effective markers for studies of Strongylocentrotus populations.     

Hydrodynamic properties of rigid macromolecules composed of ellipsoidal and cylindrical subunits.

A procedure is devised for the calculation of hydrodynamic properties of rigid macromolecules composed subunits that are modeled as ellipsoids of revolution and cylinders. Owing to the axial symmetry of these shapes, smooth shell models can be constructured for the subunit structure. The bead shell model so constructed is employed for the calculation of the properties. A computer program, HYDROSUB, has been written implementing both the model building and the hydrodynamic calculation. A detailed example of the use of this methodology is presented for the case of the solution properties of the human antibody molecule immunoglobulin G3 (IgG3). Finally, hints are given on other uses and applications of the procedure.     

Distribution of macroinvertebrates in relation to physical and biological variables in the littoral zone of nine New Zealand lakes

Macroinvertebrates play a key role in the littoral zone of lakes. Macroinvertebrate community composition is closely linked to habitat conditions. To date, there have been few attempts to relate macroinvertebrates to habitat factors in lakes. In this study, nine mainly oligotrophic lakes from throughout New Zealand were surveyed for macroinvertebrates. The lakes were selected to represent a range of suspended sediment loading and lake level regimes. Within each lake, several sites were selected to provide a range of exposure to wave action. A multiple regression approach was taken to relate macroinvertebrate community composition and habitat characteristics. The results of the analysis suggest that the littoral zone of the lakes we studied could be divided into four general habitats. The first is the wave wash zone characterised by coarse substrates and macroinvertebrate taxa usually associated with lotic environments, such as Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera. The second habitat is associated with macrophytes and is limited at the top by wave action and at depth by light attenuation. In this zone, the snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum is dominant, along with Trichoptera and Odonata. At the base of the macrophytes is the detrital habitat characterised by fine, organic rich sediments and dominated by chironomids, oligochaetes and Trichoptera. At depths below the macrophyte zone, fine sediments are found, and bivalves such as the freshwater mussel Hyridella menziesi are common. While macroinvertebrate abundance can be highly variable, some general predictions of community structure can be made based on a few key environmental factors. Abundance of snails Odonata and Trichoptera was positively related to macrophyte biomass. Some macroinvertebrate groups such as oligochaetes, chironomids, snails and bivalves were more common in fine substrates, while Ephemeroptera were characteristic of coarse substrates. Detrital biomass was important for most of the macroinvertebrate groups studied showing a positive relationship for oligochaetes and Trichoptera and a negative relationship for Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera.     

A Gradualist Theory of Discovery in Ecology

The distinction between the context ofdiscovery and the context of justificationrestricts philosophy of science to the rationalreconstruction of theories, and characterizesscientific discovery as rare, theoreticalupheavals that defy rational reconstruction. Kuhnian challenges to the two contextsdistinction show that non-rational elementspersist in the justification of theories, butgo no further to provide a positive account ofdiscovery. A gradualist theory of discoverydeveloped in this paper shows, with supportfrom ecological cases, that discoveries areroutinely made in ecology by extending modelsto new domains, or by making additions toearlier models. The logic of discovery isphilosophically accessible once it isappreciated that model truth is presumed, evenif counterfactually, in ecologists' applicationof models. A gradualist view shows thatmodels' heuristic power routinely leads todiscoveries.     

Forecasting airborne pollen concentrations: Development of local models

People's sensitivity to allergies may representone of the most important health factors of thenext century to which attention must be paid inorder to reduce the incidence of social costsand improve the quality of life.Taking into consideration the earnest requestsof the medical-scientific communityEmilia-Romagna ARPA (Regional Agency for thePrevention of the Environment) moved theattention from the monitoring to a short andmedium term prediction of the concentration ofallergenic pollens in the air in order toachieve a more effective therapeutic action.Our main objectives are to improve seasonalforecasts and to interpret anomalous years.A neural network model for grass pollenforecasting has been implemented. Inputvariables were meteorological situations, i.e.,daily temperature (max., min. and average) andrainfall, in addition to combinations ofindividual variables and their thresholds. Theoutput was daily pollen concentration.The model was able to understand and predictanomalous years. We demonstrate that therelationships between pollen concentrations andmeteorological situations are independent fromsite. This means that such models canunderstand the differences in differentareas.     

Highly polymorphic microsatellite markers developed for the social halictine bee Lasioglossum (Chilalictus) hemichalceum

Lasioglossum ( Chilalictus ) hemichalceum is a social halictine bee species for which we developed 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci in order to investigate detailed genetic structure of cooperating indvididuals. The loci are highly polymorphic with allele numbers ranging between eight and 22. A null allele was detected at one locus in the absence of pedigree information.