Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), blue‐winged teal (Anas discors), ruddy duck (Oxyura jamaicensis) and pied‐billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.     

Vague-to-crisp dynamics of percept formation modeled as operant (selectionist) process

We model the vague-to-crisp dynamics of forming percepts in the brain by combining two methodologies: dynamic logic (DL) and operant learning process. Forming percepts upon the presentation of visual inputs is likened to model selection based on sampled evidence. Our framework utilizes the DL in selecting the correct “percept” among competing ones, but uses an intrinsic reward mechanism to allow stochastic online update in lieu of performing the optimization step of the DL framework. We discuss the connection of our framework with cognitive processing and the intentional neurodynamic cycle.     

Assessing changes over time in healthcare provider performance: Addressing regression to the mean over multiple time points

In recent years, the evaluation of healthcare provider performance has become standard for governments, insurance companies, and other stakeholders. Often, performance is compared across providers using indicators in one time period, for example a year. However it is often important to assess changes in the performance of individual providers over time. Such analyses can be used to determine if any providers have significant improvements, deteriorations, unusual patterns or systematic changes in performance. Studies which monitor healthcare provider performance in this way have to date typically been limited to comparing performance in the most recent period with performance in a previous period. It is also important to consider a longer‐term view of performance and assess changes over more than two periods. In this paper, we develop test statistics that account for variable numbers of prior performance indicators, and show that these are particularly useful for assessing consecutive improvements or deteriorations in performance. We apply the tests to coronary artery bypass graft mortality rates in New York State hospitals, and mortality data from Australian and New Zealand intensive care units. Although our applications are to medical data, the new tests have broad application in other areas.     

Multivariate frailty models for two types of recurrent events with a dependent terminal event: Application to breast cancer data

Individuals may experience more than one type of recurrent event and a terminal event during the life course of a disease. Follow‐up may be interrupted for several reasons, including the end of a study, or patients lost to follow‐up, which are noninformative censoring events. Death could also stop the follow‐up, hence, it is considered as a dependent terminal event. We propose a multivariate frailty model that jointly analyzes two types of recurrent events with a dependent terminal event. Two estimation methods are proposed: a semiparametrical approach using penalized likelihood estimation where baseline hazard functions are approximated by M‐splines, and another one with piecewise constant baseline hazard functions. Finally, we derived martingale residuals to check the goodness‐of‐fit. We illustrate our proposals with a real dataset on breast cancer. The main objective was to model the dependency between the two types of recurrent events (locoregional and metastatic) and the terminal event (death) after a breast cancer.     

The Influence of the Incubation Period on Qualitative Aspects of the Spread of AIDS

Based on a simple stochastic model the influence of the incubation period of the HIV-infection on some qualitative aspects of the spread of AIDS is studied. A critical ‘nfection rat’ is calculated in dependence on parameters of the incubation period density function.     

Estimates of a Treatment Effect Based on Censored Data Rank Tests

Linear rank test statistics are applied to the problem of estimating a treatment effect if two sets of censored failure time data are compared and the distributions of the log-failure times of the two samples are assumed to differ only in location. Rank tests for this accelerated failure time model are reviewed and Hodges-Lehmann type estimates for the shift parameter are proposed. Properties of these estimates are investigated, computational aspects are discussed and an example is presented.     

Natural selection. V. How to read the fundamental equations of evolutionary change in terms of information theory

The equations of evolutionary change by natural selection are commonly expressed in statistical terms. Fisher's fundamental theorem emphasizes the variance in fitness. Quantitative genetics expresses selection with covariances and regressions. Population genetic equations depend on genetic variances. How can we read those statistical expressions with respect to the meaning of natural selection? One possibility is to relate the statistical expressions to the amount of information that populations accumulate by selection. However, the connection between selection and information theory has never been compelling. Here, I show the correct relations between statistical expressions for selection and information theory expressions for selection. Those relations link selection to the fundamental concepts of entropy and information in the theories of physics, statistics and communication. We can now read the equations of selection in terms of their natural meaning. Selection causes populations to accumulate information about the environment.     

Symposium Introductory Remarks: A Brief History of Aquatic Microbial Ecology

ABSTRACT This report serves to introduce the symposium on food chains and food webs that is jointly sponsored by the Society of Protozoologists and the Phycological Society of America. A brief history of the field of aquatic microbial ecology is presented with an emphasis on the development of theoretical models that have directed the course of research — research that has shaped the development of new and more complex models of the present. the paper aims to provide historical background for all symposium participants and an introduction to the specific presentations of the four guest speakers.     

Behavioral Phenotyping of Murine Disease Models with the Integrated Behavioral Station (INBEST)

Due to rapid advances in genetic engineering, small rodents have become the preferred subjects in many disciplines of biomedical research. In studies of chronic CNS disorders, there is an increasing demand for murine models with high validity at the behavioral level. However, multiple pathogenic mechanisms and complex functional deficits often impose challenges to reliably measure and interpret behavior of chronically sick mice. Therefore, the assessment of peripheral pathology and a behavioral profile at several time points using a battery of tests are required. Video-tracking, behavioral spectroscopy, and remote acquisition of physiological measures are emerging technologies that allow for comprehensive, accurate, and unbiased behavioral analysis in a home-base-like setting. This report describes a refined phenotyping protocol, which includes a custom-made monitoring apparatus (Integrated Behavioral Station, INBEST) that focuses on prolonged measurements of basic functional outputs, such as spontaneous activity, food/water intake and motivated behavior in a relatively stress-free environment. Technical and conceptual improvements in INBEST design may further promote reproducibility and standardization of behavioral studies.