Predicting walnut (Juglans spp.) crop yield using meteorological and airborne pollen data

Crop yield determines economy by influencing prices on the trade market, and so accurate forecasts of the yield are important for planning various aspects of agricultural production. The main aim of this study is to construct a model for predicting walnut yield in an important walnut production area (the region of Novi Sad in Northern Serbia). Relationships between the amount of walnuts produced annually (2000–2011) and abiotic (e.g. meteorological) and biotic (e.g. airborne pollen data) factors were examined using Pearson correlation analysis. Walnut yield data were then entered into linear regression models with variables that had the highest correlations. The models were constructed using 10 years of data, and tested using 2 years of data not included in constructing the model. This paper has shown that walnut yield is greatly dependent on weather conditions, particularly during fertilisation and seed growth, but the amount of available airborne pollen also plays an important role. The introduction of the seasonal pollen index, as a proxy for the amount of pollen available for fertilisation, improved the performance of models predicting walnut yield.     

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.     

Simulation of nitrogen assimilation by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass

Assimilation of N by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass is associated with decomposition of organic matter in the soil. The form of N assimilated can be either low molecular weight organic N released from the breakdown of organic matter (direct assimilation), or NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ from the soil inorganic N pool, into which mineralized organic N is released (mineralization immobilization turnover). The kinetics of C and N turnover in soil is quantifiable by means of computer simulation models. NCSOIL was constructed to represent the two assimilation schemes. The rate of N assimilation depends on the rate of C assimilation and microbial C/N ratio, thereby rendering it independent of the assimilation scheme. However, if any of the N forms is labeled, a different amount of labeled N assimilation will be simulated by the different schemes. Experimental data on inorganic N and ¹⁵N and on organic ¹⁵N dynamics in soils incubated with ¹⁵N added as NH⁺₄ or organic N were compared with data simulated by different model schemes. Direct assimilation could not account for the amount of ¹⁵N assimilated in any of the experimental treatments. The best fit of the model to experimental data was obtained for the mineralization immobilization turnover scheme when both NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ were assimilated, in proportion to their concentration in the soil.     

Distinct roles of the Y1 and Y2 receptors on neuropeptide Y-induced sensitization to sedation

Intracranial injection of neuropeptide Y (NPY) increases the sensitivity to sodium pentobarbital and ketamin sedation and has similar properties as GABA agonists on sleep. Mice sensitive to sedation have increased levels of NPY in many brain regions and Y1(-/-) mice show a marked resistance to barbiturates. Here we characterized the role of the NPY Y receptors in anesthetic-induced sedation. We show that Y1 and Y2, but not Y5, receptors participate in the modulation of sedation. Administration of a Y1 agonist increased the sodium pentobarbital-induced sedation and Y1(-/-) mice were less sensitive to this anesthetic. However, Y2(-/-) mice display increased sensitivity, showing that Y2 modulates GABAergic induced sedation both pharmacologically and physiologically and has a functionally opposing role to the Y1 receptor. Analysis of Y1(-/-)/Y2(-/-) double mutant mice show that increased sensitivity by Y1 occurs independent of the Y2 receptor, while the decreased sensitivity mediated by Y2 depend on an intact Y1 receptor. In contrast to sodium pentobarbital, both Y1 and Y2 receptors increase the sensitivity in a collaborative fashion to NMDA antagonist-induced sedation. These data demonstrate the physiological and pharmacological impact of the Y1 and Y2 receptors on sedation.     

Applicability of phosphorus budget models to southern African man-made lakes

An investigation of the phosphorus loading characteristics of 31 southern African man-made was lakes made. The lakes were characterized by low water retention times, with most of the lakes having retention times of less than one year. Catchment phosphorus export rates showed wide variation (1–162 mg P m^-2 y^-1) with those lakes experiencing excessive municipal wastewater inputs having export rates in excess of 53 mg m^-2 y^-1. The phosphorus data were tested against the Vollenweider (1976) and Dillon & Rigler (1974) phosphorus budget models which predict in-lake steady state concentrations of phosphorus. It was found that both models displayed good potential for the prediction of steady state concentrations of phosphorus, with better results being obtained from the Dillon & Rigler (1974) model. However, because phosphorus concentrations within these lakes may not necessarily be related to trophic status the use of these models as a predictive tool for eutrophication control still requires further development.     

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.     

Recent developments in mesophyll conductance in C3, C4, and crassulacean acid metabolism plants

The conductance of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the substomatal cavities to the initial sites of CO₂ fixation (g_m) can significantly reduce the availability of CO₂ for photosynthesis. There have been many recent reviews on: (i) the importance of g_m for accurately modelling net rates of CO₂ assimilation, (ii) on how leaf biochemical and anatomical factors influence g_m, (iii) the technical limitation of estimating g_m, which cannot be directly measured, and (iv) how g_m responds to long‐ and short‐term changes in growth and measurement environmental conditions. Therefore, this review will highlight these previous publications but will attempt not to repeat what has already been published. We will instead initially focus on the recent developments on the two‐resistance model of g_m that describe the potential of photorespiratory and respiratory CO₂ released within the mitochondria to diffuse directly into both the chloroplast and the cytosol. Subsequently, we summarize recent developments in the three‐dimensional (3‐D) reaction‐diffusion models and 3‐D image analysis that are providing new insights into how the complex structure and organization of the leaf influences g_m. Finally, because most of the reviews and literature on g_m have traditionally focused on C₃ plants we review in the final sections some of the recent developments, current understanding and measurement techniques of g_m in C₄ and crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants. These plants have both specialized leaf anatomy and either a spatially or temporally separated CO₂ concentrating mechanisms (C₄ and CAM, respectively) that influence how we interpret and estimate g_m compared with a C₃ plants.     

Cattle feed or bioenergy? Consequential life cycle assessment of biogas feedstock options on dairy farms

On‐farm anaerobic digestion (AD) of wastes and crops can potentially avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but incurs extensive environmental effects via carbon and nitrogen cycles and substitution of multiple processes within and outside farm system boundaries. Farm models were combined with consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) to assess plausible biogas and miscanthus heating pellet scenarios on dairy farms. On the large dairy farm, the introduction of slurry‐only AD led to reductions in global warming potential (GWP) and resource depletion burdens of 14% and 67%, respectively, but eutrophication and acidification burden increases of 9% and 10%, respectively, assuming open tank digestate storage. Marginal GWP burdens per Mg dry matter (DM) feedstock codigested with slurry ranged from –637 kg CO₂e for food waste to +509 kg CO₂e for maize. Codigestion of grass and maize led to increased imports of concentrate feed to the farm, negating the GWP benefits of grid electricity substitution. Attributing grass‐to‐arable land use change (LUC) to marginal wheat feed production led to net GWP burdens exceeding 900 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 maize DM codigested. Converting the medium‐sized dairy farm to a beef‐plus‐AD farm led to a minor reduction in GWP when grass‐to‐arable LUC was excluded, but a 38% GWP increase when such LUC was attributed to marginal maize and wheat feed required for intensive compensatory milk production. If marginal animal feed is derived from soybeans cultivated on recently converted cropland in South America, the net GWP burden increases to 4099 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 maize DM codigested – equivalent to 55 Mg CO₂e yr^?1 per hectare used for AD‐maize cultivation. We conclude that AD of slurry and food waste on dairy farms is an effective GHG mitigation option, but that the quantity of codigested crops should be strictly limited to avoid potentially large international carbon leakage via animal feed displacement.     

Indicators of restoration success in riparian tropical forests using multiple reference ecosystems

Forest restoration by planting trees often accelerates succession, but the trajectories toward reference ecosystems have rarely been evaluated. Using a chronosequence (4–53 years) of 26 riparian forest undergoing restoration in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we modeled how the variables representing forest structure, tree species richness and composition, and the proportion of plant functional guilds change through time. We also estimated the time required for these variables to reach different types of reference ecosystems: old‐growth forest (OGF), degraded forest, and secondary forest. Among the attributes which follow a predictable trajectory over time are: the basal area, canopy cover, density and tree species richness, as well as proportions of shade tolerant and slow growing species or individuals. Most of the variation in density of pteridophythes, lianas, shrubs and phorophythes, proportion of animal‐dispersed individuals, rarefied richness and floristic similarity with reference ecosystems remain unexplained. Estimated time to reach the reference ecosystems is, in general, shorter for structural attributes than for species composition or proportion of functional guilds. The length of this time varies among the three types of reference ecosystems for most attributes. For instance, tree species richness and proportion of shade tolerant or slow growing individuals become similar to secondary forests in about 40 years, but is estimated to take 70 years or more to reach the OGF. Of all the variables considered, canopy cover, basal area, density, and richness of the understory—by their ecological relevance and predictability—are recommended as ecological indicators for monitoring tropical forest restoration success.