A Bayesian Semiparametric Survival Model with Longitudinal Markers

Summary We consider inference for data from a clinical trial of treatments for metastatic prostate cancer. Patients joined the trial with diverse prior treatment histories. The resulting heterogeneous patient population gives rise to challenging statistical inference problems when trying to predict time to progression on different treatment arms. Inference is further complicated by the need to include a longitudinal marker as a covariate. To address these challenges, we develop a semiparametric model for joint inference of longitudinal data and an event time. The proposed approach includes the possibility of cure for some patients. The event time distribution is based on a nonparametric Pólya tree prior. For the longitudinal data we assume a mixed effects model. Incorporating a regression on covariates in a nonparametric event time model in general, and for a Pólya tree model in particular, is a challenging problem. We exploit the fact that the covariate itself is a random variable. We achieve an implementation of the desired regression by factoring the joint model for the event time and the longitudinal outcome into a marginal model for the event time and a regression of the longitudinal outcomes on the event time, i.e., we implicitly model the desired regression by modeling the reverse conditional distribution.     

Multiple McNemar Tests

Summary Methods for performing multiple tests of paired proportions are described. A broadly applicable method using McNemar's exact test and the exact distributions of all test statistics is developed; the method controls the familywise error rate in the strong sense under minimal assumptions. A closed form (not simulation‐based) algorithm for carrying out the method is provided. A bootstrap alternative is developed to account for correlation structures. Operating characteristics of these and other methods are evaluated via a simulation study. Applications to multiple comparisons of predictive models for disease classification and to postmarket surveillance of adverse events are given.     

Gene flow, effective population size and selection at major histocompatibility complex genes: brown trout in the Hardanger Fjord, Norway

Brown trout populations in the Hardanger Fjord, Norway, have declined drastically due to increased exposure to salmon lice from salmonid aquaculture. We studied contemporary samples from seven populations and historical samples (1972 and 1983) from the two largest populations, one of which has declined drastically whereas the other remains stable. We analysed 11 microsatellite loci, including one tightly linked to the UBA gene of the major histocompatibility class I complex (MHC) and another locus linked to the TAP2A gene, also associated with MHC. The results revealed asymmetric gene flow from the two largest populations to the other, smaller populations. This has important conservation implications, and we predict that possible future population recoveries will be mediated primarily by the remaining large population. Tests for selection suggested diversifying selection at UBA, whereas evidence was inconclusive for TAP2A. There was no evidence for temporally fluctuating selection. We assessed the distribution of adaptive divergence among populations. The results showed the most pronounced footprints of selection between the two largest populations subject to the least immigration. We suggest that asymmetric gene flow has an important influence on adaptive divergence and constrains local adaptive responses in the smaller populations. Even though UBA alleles may not affect salmon louse resistance, the results bear evidence of adaptive divergence among populations at immune system genes. This suggests that similar genetic differences could exist at salmon louse resistance loci, thus rendering it a realistic scenario that differential population declines could reflect differences in adaptive variation.     

阻断子宫动脉建立FGR大鼠模型的研究

目的通过暂时阻断妊娠期大鼠子宫血供的方法建立子宫缺血引起胎儿生长受限的动物模型。方法根据大鼠子宫动脉是卵巢动脉的一个分支的解剖特点,于孕鼠妊娠第15天时施行手术暂时阻断卵巢动脉并于第21天行剖宫产术,术后称量新生胎仔体重及胎盘、脑、心、肝、肺、肾等重要脏器重量,对比各组间新生胎仔的预后的不同,并对照研究阻断血供10、20、30及40 min对胎仔的不同影响。结果妊娠晚期阻断孕鼠卵巢动脉20min可成功构建胎儿生长受限模型,这种方法与阻断动脉血流30或40 min相比,手术时间短,技术要求不高,胎仔死亡率与对照组差异无显著性(P>0.05)。各实验组较对照组新生胎仔体重及胎盘、各重要脏器重量均明显降低(P<0.05)。结论通过阻断卵巢动脉从而阻断子宫动脉血流,成功建立缺血缺氧性FGR孕鼠模型。该模型重复性好,操作简便,并可成功设立同体对照,为进行FGR相关的产科理论研究提供了一个有利的技术平台。     

三株光合细菌的毒性试验研究

以昆明小白鼠为实验动物,对类球红细菌Z1、沼泽红假单胞菌Z2及光合细菌分离株C2采用急性毒性试验、骨髓细胞微核试验和精子畸形试验进行安全性评定。结果表明,急性毒性试验:实验组小白鼠的一般状况、器官含水量、器官系数及血常规检查,与对照组差异均无显著性(P>0.05);骨髓细胞微核试验和精子畸形试验实验组与阴性对照组(生理盐水)差异均无显著性(P>0.05),与阳性对照组(环磷酰胺40 mg/kg)比较,骨髓细胞微核试验差异有极显著性(P<0.01),精子畸形率试验差异有显著性(P<0.05)。以上结果说明,三株光合细菌均不具有毒性。     

934株自血培养分离致病菌的病原学分析

目的了解中山大学附属第一医院2002年到2005年自血培养标本中分离的致病细菌的耐药状况和菌群分布特征。方法采用全自动血培养仪进行培养,血培养报阳后转种血平板,用VITEK-60鉴定所分离致病菌,药敏试验用K-B法。结果4年间血培养共分离出934株病原细菌,其中大肠埃希菌、金黄色葡萄球菌、肺炎克雷伯菌,是该院引起血液感染的主要致病细菌。药物敏感试验显示革兰阴性杆菌对亚胺培南、哌拉西林/他唑巴坦、头孢哌酮/舒巴坦的敏感性最高,而革兰阳性球菌对万古霉素及替考拉宁的敏感性最高。结论血液感染患者的死亡率较高,应重视导致血液感染致病菌的病原学研究,以利于疾病的治疗。     

Sex pheromone of the cloaked pug moth,Eupithecia abietaria (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), a pest of spruce cones

The sex pheromone of the cloaked pug moth, Eupithecia abietaria Götze, an important cone‐feeding pest in spruce seed orchards in Europe, was investigated. Chemical and electrophysiological analyses of pheromone gland extracts of female moths and analogous analyses of synthetic hydrocarbons and epoxides of chain length C₁₉ and C₂₁ revealed (3Z,6Z,9Z)‐3,6,9‐nonadecatriene (3Z,6Z,9Z‐19:H) and 3Z,6Z‐cis‐9,10‐epoxynonadecadiene (3Z,6Z‐cis‐9,10‐epoxy‐19:H) as candidate pheromone components, which were found in a gland extract in a ratio of 95 : 5. In field trapping experiments, conspecific males were only attracted to a combination of 3Z,6Z,9Z‐19:H and the (9S,10R)‐enantiomer of 3Z,6Z‐cis‐9,10‐epoxy‐19:H. The (9R,10S)‐enantiomer was not attractive, which is in agreement with studies on other Eupithecia species, for which males have only been attracted by the (9S,10R)‐enantiomer of epoxides. Subsequent experiments showed that E. abietaria males were attracted to a wide range of ratios of the two active compounds and that trap catches increased with increasing dose of the binary blend. A two‐component bait containing 300 μg 3Z,6Z,9Z‐19:H and 33 μg of the (9S,10R)‐enantiomer of 3Z,6Z‐cis‐9,10‐epoxy‐19:H was efficient for monitoring E. abietaria in spruce seed orchards in southern Sweden, where this species has probably been overlooked as an important pest in the past. With sex pheromones recently identified for two other moths that are major pests on spruce cones, the spruce seed moth, Cydia strobilella L., and the spruce coneworm, Dioryctria abietella Denis & Schiffermüller, pheromone‐based monitoring can now be achieved for the whole guild of cone‐feeding moths in European spruce seed orchards.     

Defining the biological bases of individual differences in musicality

Advances in molecular technologies make it possible to pinpoint genomic factors associated with complex human traits. For cognition and behaviour, identification of underlying genes provides new entry points for deciphering the key neurobiological pathways. In the past decade, the search for genetic correlates of musicality has gained traction. Reports have documented familial clustering for different extremes of ability, including amusia and absolute pitch (AP), with twin studies demonstrating high heritability for some music-related skills, such as pitch perception. Certain chromosomal regions have been linked to AP and musical aptitude, while individual candidate genes have been investigated in relation to aptitude and creativity. Most recently, researchers in this field started performing genome-wide association scans. Thus far, studies have been hampered by relatively small sample sizes and limitations in defining components of musicality, including an emphasis on skills that can only be assessed in trained musicians. With opportunities to administer standardized aptitude tests online, systematic large-scale assessment of musical abilities is now feasible, an important step towards high-powered genome-wide screens. Here, we offer a synthesis of existing literatures and outline concrete suggestions for the development of comprehensive operational tools for the analysis of musical phenotypes.