Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation

In the context of global warming, the general trend towards earlier flowering dates of many temperate tree species is likely to result in an increased risk of damage from exposure to frost. To test this hypothesis, a phenological model of apple flowering was applied to a temperature series from two locations in an important area for apple production in Europe (Trentino, Italy). Two simulated 50-year climatic projections (A2 and B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) from the HadCM3 general circulation model were statistically downscaled to the two sites. Hourly temperature records over a 40-year period were used as the reference for past climate. In the phenological model, the heat requirement (degree hours) for flowering was parameterized using two approaches; static (constant over time) and dynamic (climate dependent). Parameterisation took into account the trees’ adaptation to changing temperatures based on either past instrumental records or the downscaled outputs from the climatic simulations. Flowering dates for the past 40 years and simulated flowering dates for the next 50 years were used in the model. A significant trend towards earlier flowering was clearly detected in the past. This negative trend was also apparent in the simulated data. However, the significance was less apparent when the “dynamic” setting for the degree hours requirement was used in the model. The number of frost episodes and flowering dates, on an annual basis, were graphed to assess the risk of spring frost. Risk analysis confirmed a lower risk of exposure to frost at present than in the past, and probably either constant or a slightly lower risk in future, especially given that physiological processes are expected to acclimate to higher temperatures. An erratum to this article can be found at     

The occurrence of Ranzania laevis off the Island of Gran Canaria, the Canary Islands, related to sea warming

Catches of the slender sunfish Ranzania laevis were reported off the coastline of the island of Gran Canaria, the Canary Islands, Spain in May-June 2001, apparently associated with a sudden west-east warming process of the sea surface in the central Atlantic.     

Impact of global warming at the range margins: phenotypic plasticity and behavioral thermoregulation will buffer an endemic amphibian

When dispersal is not an option to evade warming temperatures, compensation through behavior, plasticity, or evolutionary adaptation is essential to prevent extinction. In this work, we evaluated whether there is physiological plasticity in the thermal performance curve (TPC) of maximum jumping speed in individuals acclimated to current and projected temperatures and whether there is an opportunity for behavioral thermoregulation in the desert landscape where inhabits the northernmost population of the endemic frog Pleurodema thaul. Our results indicate that individuals acclimated to 20°C and 25°C increased the breath of their TPCs by shifting their upper limits with respect to when they were acclimated at 10°C. In addition, even when dispersal is not possible for this population, the landscape is heterogeneous enough to offer opportunities for behavioral thermoregulation. In particular, under current climatic conditions, behavioral thermoregulation is not compulsory as available operative temperatures are encompassed within the population TPC limits. However, for severe projected temperatures under climate change, behavioral thermoregulation will be required in the sunny patches. In overall, our results suggest that this population of Pleurodema thaul will be able to endure the worst projected scenario of climate warming as it has not only the physiological capacities but also the environmental opportunities to regulate its body temperature behaviorally.     

The endemic kelp Lessonia corrugata is being pushed above its thermal limits in an ocean warming hotspot

Kelps are in global decline due to climate change, which includes ocean warming. To identify vulnerable species, we need to identify their tolerances to increasing temperatures and determine whether tolerances are altered by co-occurring drivers such as inorganic nutrient levels. This is particularly important for those species with restricted distributions, which may already be experiencing thermal stress. To identify thermal tolerance of the range-restricted kelp Lessonia corrugata, we conducted a laboratory experiment on juvenile sporophytes to measure performance (growth, photosynthesis) across its thermal range (4–22°C). We determined the upper thermal limit for growth and photosynthesis to be ~22–23°C, with a thermal optimum of ~16°C. To determine if elevated inorganic nitrogen availability could enhance thermal tolerance, we compared the performance of juveniles under low (4.5 μmol · d⁻¹) and high (90 μmol · d⁻¹) nitrate conditions at and above the thermal optimum (16–23.5°C). Nitrate enrichment did not enhance thermal performance at temperatures above the optimum but did lead to elevated growth rates at the thermal optimum. Our results indicate L. corrugata is likely to be extremely susceptible to moderate ocean warming and marine heatwaves. Peak sea surface temperatures during summer in eastern and northeastern Tasmania can reach up to 20–21°C, and climate projections suggest that L. corrugata's thermal limit will be regularly exceeded by 2050 as southeastern Australia is a global ocean-warming hotspot. By identifying the upper thermal limit of L. corrugata, we have taken a critical step in predicting the future of the species in a warming climate.     

Changes in chromosomal polymorphism and global warming: The case of Drosophila subobscura from Apatin (Serbia)

In this study, chromosomal inversion polymorphism data for a natural population of Drosophila subobscura from a swampy region near the town of Apatin (Serbia) were compared with data for the same population collected approximately 15 years earlier. The pattern of chromosomal inversion polymorphism changed over time. There were significant increases in the frequency of characteristic southern latitude ("warm" adapted) chromosomal arrangements and significant decreases in the frequency of characteristic northern latitude ("cold" adapted) chromosomal arrangements in the O and U chromosomes. The chromosomal arrangements O(3+4) and O(3+4) (+) (22) (derived from the O(3+4) arrangement) showed significant increases in 2008 and 2009 with regard to the 1994 sample. There was also a significant increase (～50%) in the U(1) (+) (2) arrangement, while U(1+8) (+) (2) (a typical southern arrangement) was detected for the first time. Since the Apatin swampy population of D. subobscura has existed for a long time in a stable habitat with high humidity that has not been changed by man our results indicate that natural selection has produced chromosomal changes in response to the increase in temperature that has occurred in the Balkan Peninsula of central southeastern European.     

Climate‐induced increase of moth multivoltinism in boreal regions

Aim An increase in multivoltinism in ectothermic animals has been proposed by several authors as a possible outcome of climate warming, especially in high latitudes. We tested this prediction with large‐scale empirical monitoring data for boreal moth communities. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods Our data set comprised observations of multivoltine species made in the Finnish moth monitoring scheme ‘Nocturna’ trap sites during the period 1993–2006 along an exceptionally long latitudinal gradient of 1000 km. To compare recent changes in moth multivoltinism with a longer time period, we gathered older time series of moth observations from five locations. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to detect possible temporal and geographical trends in the annual occurrence of multivoltinism. We also identified areas where the recent changes in multivoltinism have been greatest. Monthly average temperatures of spring and summer periods and annual sum of growing degree days above 5 °C (GDD5) were used as explanatory variables to distinguish the main climatic correlates of moth multivoltinism. Results We observed a clear increase in the occurrence of moth multivoltinism during the period 1993–2006. The incidence as well as the recent increase in multivoltinism were highest in southernmost Finland and decreased towards the north. We also detected a weaker, although significantly positive, trend of moth multivoltinism in southern Finland during the period 1963–92, suggesting that this increasing trend might already have begun earlier. The most important climatic correlates for the annual occurrence of moth multivoltinism were the mean summer temperature (periods May–July and June–August) and GDD5, but all the tested climatic variables showed a significant univariate relationship with the occurrence of moth multivoltinism. All climatic variables showed an increasing trend during the period 1993–2006. Main conclusions The occurrence of multivoltinism has increased in northern European moth communities during recent decades, apparently as a response to increasing temperatures during the spring and summer seasons. The increase in multivoltinism was greatest in the southernmost parts of Finland, whereas in the northern landscapes recent warming has triggered multivoltinism in only relatively few moth species.     

Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift

Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline.     

The response of peatlands to climate warming: A review

Peatlands hold a large portion of the Earth’s terrestrial organic carbon and serve as important pools in the global carbon cycle. Due to their strong feedbacks, peatlands are one of the most important ecosystems with respect to climate warming. This paper reviews the effects of climate warming on peatland ecosystems. Climate warming will shift the point in time when vascular peatland plants flower and reach maximum biomass to an earlier date. Flower production for some plants will increase, but how the phenology of peatland bryophytes will react is still unknown. Climate warming may increase productivity of peatlands, especially ombrotrophic Sphagnum bogs, but in the long run the negative effects from decreased water availability may prevail. Climate warming will change the basic characteristics of peatlands: their wetness and the related cold environment and nutrient shortage. By increased mineralization and nitrogen and phosphorus availability, climate warming will facilitate the growth of vascular plants. This will suppress endangered plant species (which usually grow in low-productive, phosphorus-limited habitats) and lead to a change in vegetation composition and a decrease in peatland biodiversity. Climate warming will change the competitive balance between bryophytes and between Sphagnum and vascular plants. Climate warming in the Late Pleistocene facilitated the initiation of peatland formation, but most current experiments show an obvious tendency for climate warming to drive many peatlands to regressive succession with a shift in dominance from Sphagnum to vascular plants. This change in vegetation will increase the flux of CH₄ and possibly also CO₂. The effect of accelerated peat decay as a result of climate warming will vary between types of peatlands. Since climate warming will generally enhance peat respiration more than net primary production, more and more peatlands will become carbon sources rather than carbon sinks, which will aggravate climate warming by positive feedback. Finally, this paper addresses some problems with current manipulative experimental studies on peatland response to climate warming and makes suggestions for further studies.     

Effect of warming and drought on grassland microbial communities

The soil microbiome is responsible for mediating key ecological processes; however, little is known about its sensitivity to climate change. Observed increases in global temperatures and alteration to rainfall patterns, due to anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases, will likely have a strong influence on soil microbial communities and ultimately the ecosystem services they provide. Therefore, it is vital to understand how soil microbial communities will respond to future climate change scenarios. To this end, we surveyed the abundance, diversity and structure of microbial communities over a 2-year period from a long-term in situ warming experiment that experienced a moderate natural drought. We found the warming treatment and soil water budgets strongly influence bacterial population size and diversity. In normal precipitation years, the warming treatment significantly increased microbial population size 40–150% but decreased diversity and significantly changed the composition of the community when compared with the unwarmed controls. However during drought conditions, the warming treatment significantly reduced soil moisture thereby creating unfavorable growth conditions that led to a 50–80% reduction in the microbial population size when compared with the control. Warmed plots also saw an increase in species richness, diversity and evenness; however, community composition was unaffected suggesting that few phylotypes may be active under these stressful conditions. Our results indicate that under warmed conditions, ecosystem water budget regulates the abundance and diversity of microbial populations and that rainfall timing is critical at the onset of drought for sustaining microbial populations.