The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Development of a single mode electromagnetic resonant cavity for rewarming of cryopreserved biomaterials

An electromagnetic (EM) heating system is developed to achieve the rapid and uniform warming of cryopreserved biomaterials. Using the heating system, a rectangular resonant cavity is excited in TE101 mode at frequencies near 434 MHz. In experiments, a spherical phantom of biomaterial with a diameter of 36 mm is placed at the center of the cavity. The phantom is first cooled down to about -80 degrees C within the cavity and then thawed by EM absorption. Results show that EM warming can produce much higher warming rate than conventional water-bath warming method. The spatial temperature distribution in the phantom during EM warming is also more uniform than that during the water-bath warming.     

Spatial patterns in brown bear Ursus arctos diet: the role of geographical and environmental factors

• 1 We reviewed worldwide spatial patterns in the food habits of the brown bear Ursus arctos in relation to geographical (latitude, longitude, altitude) and environmental (temperature, snow cover depth and duration, precipitation, primary productivity) variables.
• 2 We collected data from 28 studies on brown bear diet based on faecal analysis, covering the entire geographical range of this widely distributed large carnivore. We analysed separately four data sets based on different methods of diet assessment.
• 3 Temperature and snow conditions were the most important factors determining the composition of brown bear diet. Populations in locations with deeper snow cover, lower temperatures and lower productivity consumed significantly more vertebrates, fewer invertebrates and less mast. Trophic diversity was positively correlated with temperature, precipitation and productivity but negatively correlated with the duration of snow cover and snow depth. Brown bear populations from temperate forest biomes had the most diverse diet. In general, environmental factors were more explicative of diet than geographical variables.
• 4 Dietary spatial patterns were best revealed by the relative biomass and energy content methods of diet analysis, whereas the frequency of occurrence and relative biomass methods were most appropriate for investigating variation in trophic diversity.
• 5 Spatial variation in brown bear diet is the result of environmental conditions, especially climatic factors, which affect the nutritional and energetic requirements of brown bears as well as the local availability of food. The trade‐off between food availability on the one hand, and nutritional and energetic requirements on the other hand, determines brown bear foraging decisions. In hibernating species such as the brown bear, winter severity seems to play a role in determining foraging strategies. Large‐scale reviews of food habits should be based on several measures of diet composition, with special attention to those methods reflecting the energetic value of food.

     

Trophic cascades,invasive species and body-size hierarchies interactively modulate climate change responses of ecotonal temperate–boreal forest

As the climate warms, boreal tree species are expected to be gradually replaced by temperate species within the southern boreal forest. Warming will be accompanied by changes in above- and below-ground consumers: large moose (Alces alces) replaced by smaller deer (Odocoileus virginianus) above-ground, and small detritivores replaced by larger exotic earthworms below-ground. These shifts may induce a cascade of ecological impacts across trophic levels that could alter the boreal to temperate forest transition. Deer are more likely to browse saplings of temperate tree species, and European earthworms favour seedlings of boreal tree species more than temperate species, potentially hindering the ability of temperate tree species to expand northwards. We hypothesize that warming-induced changes in consumers will lead to novel plant communities by changing the filter on plant species success, and that above- and below-ground cascades of trophic interactions will allow boreal tree species to persist during early phases of warming, leading to an abrupt change at a later time. The synthesis of evidence suggests that consumers can modify the climate change-induced transition of ecosystems.     

The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment

Warming has profound effects on biological rates such as metabolism, growth, feeding and death of organisms, eventually affecting their ability to survive. Using a nonlinear bioenergetic population-dynamic model that accounts for temperature and body-mass dependencies of biological rates, we analysed the individual and interactive effects of increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment on the dynamics of a three-species food chain. At low temperatures, warming counteracts the destabilizing effects of enrichment by both bottom-up (via the carrying capacity) and top-down (via biological rates) mechanisms. Together with increasing consumer body masses, warming increases the system tolerance to fertilization. Simultaneously, warming increases the risk of starvation for large species in low-fertility systems. This effect can be counteracted by increased fertilization. In combination, therefore, two main drivers of global change and biodiversity loss can have positive and negative effects on food chain stability. Our model incorporates the most recent empirical data and may thus be used as the basis for more complex forecasting models incorporating food-web structure.     

Common garden experiments reveal uncommon responses across temperatures,locations, and species of ants

Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic understanding of the causes of compositional and spatial variation in responses to warming. Such experiments are useful for determining if geographically separated populations and co‐occurring species respond differently to warming, and they provide the opportunity to compare effects of warming on fitness (survivorship and reproduction). We exposed colonies of two common ant species in the eastern United States, Aphaenogaster rudis and Temnothorax curvispinosus, collected along a latitudinal gradient from Massachusetts to North Carolina, to growth chamber treatments that simulated current and projected temperatures in central Massachusetts and central North Carolina within the next century. Regardless of source location, colonies of A. rudis, a keystone seed disperser, experienced high mortality and low brood production in the warmest temperature treatment. Colonies of T. curvispinosus from cooler locations experienced increased mortality in the warmest rearing temperatures, but colonies from the warmest locales did not. Our results suggest that populations of some common species may exhibit uniform declines in response to warming across their geographic ranges, whereas other species will respond differently to warming in different parts of their geographic ranges. Our results suggest that differential responses of populations and species must be incorporated into projections of range shifts in a changing climate.     

Winter cold tolerance and the geographic range separation of Bromus tectorum and Bromus rubens,two severe invasive species in North America

The invasive grasses Bromus rubens and Bromus tectorum are responsible for widespread damage to semiarid biomes of western North America. Bromus. tectorum dominates higher and more northern landscapes than its sister species B. rubens, which is a severe invader in the Mojave desert region of the American Southwest. To assess climate thresholds controlling their distinct geographic ranges, we evaluated the winter cold tolerance of B. tectorum and B. rubens. Freezing tolerance thresholds were determined using electrolyte leakage and whole‐plant mortality. The responses of the two species to winter cold and artificial freezing treatments were similar in 2007–2008 and 2009–2010. When grown at minimum temperatures of 10 °C, plants of both species had cold tolerance thresholds near ?10 °C, while plants acclimated to a daily minimum of ?10 to ?30 °C survived temperatures down to ?31 °C. In the winter of 2010–2011, a sudden severe cold event on December 9, 2010 killed all B. rubens populations, while B. tectorum was not harmed; all tested plants were 7–8 weeks old. Controlled acclimation experiments demonstrated that 8‐week‐old plants of B. rubens had a slower acclimation rate to subzero temperatures than B. tectorum and could not survive a rapid temperature drop from 1 to ?14 °C. Four‐month‐old B. rubens populations were as cold tolerant as B. tectorum. Our results show that severe and sudden freeze events in late autumn can kill young plants of B. rubens but not B. tectorum. Such events could exclude B. rubens from the relatively cold, Intermountain steppe biome of western North America where B. tectorum predominates.     

Experimental warming alters spring phenology of certain plant functional groups in an early successional forest community

Experimental study of the effects of projected climate change on plant phenology allows us to isolate effects of warming on life‐history events such as leaf out. We simulated a 2 °C temperature increase and 20% precipitation increase in a recently harvested temperate deciduous forest community in central Pennsylvania, USA, and observed the leaf out phenology of all species in 2009 and 2010. Over 130 plant species were monitored weekly in study plots, but due to high variability in species composition among plots, species were grouped into five functional groups: short forbs, tall forbs, shrubs, small trees, and large trees. Tall forbs and large trees, which usually emerge in the late spring, advanced leaf out 14–18 days in response to warming. Short forbs, shrubs, and small trees emerge early in spring and did not alter their phenology in response to warming or increased precipitation treatments. Earlier leaf out of tall forbs and large trees coincided with almost 3 weeks of increased community‐level leaf area index, indicating greater competition and a condensed spring green‐up period. While phenology of large trees and tall forbs appears to be strongly influenced by temperature‐based growth cues, our results suggest that photoperiod and chilling cues more strongly influence the leaf out of other functional groups. Reduced freeze events and warmer temperatures from predicted climate change will interact with nontemperature growth cues to have cascading consequences throughout the ecosystem.     

Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa

Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2–10 °C for 2–14 days), but returning to cold winter climate exposes the ecosystem to lower temperatures by the loss of insulating snow. Soil animals, which play an integral part in soil processes, may be very susceptible to such events depending on the intensity of soil warming and low temperatures following these events. We simulated week‐long extreme winter warming events – using infrared heating lamps, alone or with soil warming cables – for two consecutive years in a sub‐Arctic dwarf shrub heathland. Minimum temperatures were lower and freeze‐thaw cycles were 2–11 times more frequent in treatment plots compared with control plots. Following the second event, Acari populations decreased by 39%; primarily driven by declines of Prostigmata (69%) and the Mesostigmatic nymphs (74%). A community‐weighted vertical stratification shift occurred from smaller soil dwelling (eu‐edaphic) Collembola species dominance to larger litter dwelling (hemi‐edaphic) species dominance in the canopy‐with‐soil warming plots compared with controls. The most susceptible groups to these winter warming events were the smallest individuals (Prostigmata and eu‐edaphic Collembola). This was not apparent from abundance data at the Collembola taxon level, indicating that life forms and species traits play a major role in community assembly following extreme events. The observed shift in soil community can cascade down to the micro‐flora affecting plant productivity and mineralization rates. Short‐term extreme weather events have the potential to shift community composition through trait composition with potentially large consequences for ecosystem development.     

Interactive responses of old‐field plant growth and composition to warming and precipitation

As Earth's atmosphere accumulates carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases, Earth's climate is expected to warm and precipitation patterns will likely change. The manner in which terrestrial ecosystems respond to climatic changes will in turn affect the rate of climate change. Here we describe responses of an old‐field herbaceous community to a factorial combination of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three precipitation regimes (drought, ambient and rain addition) over 2 years. Warming suppressed total production, shoot production, and species richness, but only in the drought treatment. Root production did not respond to warming, but drought stimulated the growth of deeper (> 10 cm) roots by 121% in 1 year. Warming and precipitation treatments both affected functional group composition, with C₄ grasses and other annual and biennial species entering the C₃ perennial‐dominated community in ambient rainfall and rain addition treatments as well as in warmed treatments. Our results suggest that, in this mesic system, expected changes in temperature or large changes in precipitation alone can alter functional composition, but they have little effect on total herbaceous plant growth. However, drought limits the capacity of the entire system to withstand warming. The relative insensitivity of our study system to climate suggests that the herbaceous component of old‐field communities will not dramatically increase production in response to warming or precipitation change, and so it is unlikely to provide either substantial increases in forage production or a meaningful negative feedback to climate change later this century.