Potential effects of interaction between CO2 and temperature on forest landscape response to global warming

Projected temperature increases under global warming could benefit southern tree species by providing them the optimal growing temperature and could be detrimental to northern species by exposing them to the supra optimal growing temperatures. This benefit-detriment trade-off could increase the competitive advantage of southern species in the northern species range and cause the increase or even dominance of southern species in the northern domain. However, the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of C3 plants may increase due to CO₂ enrichment. An increase in the optimum temperature could greatly reduce the benefit-detriment effect. In this study, we coupled a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) and a forest GAP model (LINKAGES) with a spatially dynamic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to study how an optimum temperature increase could affect forest landscape response due to global warming. We simulated 360 years of forest landscape change in the Boundary Water Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota, which is transitional between boreal and temperate forest. Our results showed that, under the control scenario of continuing the historic 1984–1993 mean climate (mainly temperature, precipitation and CO₂), the BWCA will become a spruce-fir dominated boreal forest. However, under the scenario of predicted climatic change [the 2000–2099 climates are predicted by Canadian Climate Center (CCC), followed by 200 years of continuing the predicted 2090–2099 mean climate], the BWCA will become a pine-dominated mixed forest. If the optimum temperature increases gradually with [CO₂] (the increase in optimum temperature is assumed to change gradually from 0 °C in year 2000 to 5 °C in year 2099 when [CO₂] reaches 711 ppm and stabilizes at 5 °C after year 2099), the BWCA would remain a fir-dominated boreal forest in areas with relatively high water-holding capacity, but not in areas with relatively low water-holding capacity. Our results suggest that the [CO₂] induced increases in optimum temperature could substantially reduce forest landscape change caused by global warming. However, not all tree species would be able to successfully adapt to future warming as predicted by CCC, regardless of optimum temperature acclimations.     

Differential effects of past climate warming on mountain and flatland species distributions: a multispecies North American mammal assessment

Aim The magnitude of predicted range shifts during climate change is likely to be different for species living in mountainous environments compared with those living in flatland environments. The southern edges of ranges in mountain species may not shift northwards during warming as populations instead migrate up available elevational gradients; overall latitudinal range appears therefore to expand. In contrast, flatland species should shift range centroids northwards but not expand or contract their latitudinal range extent. These hypotheses were tested utilizing Late Pleistocene and modern occurrence data. Location North America. Methods The location and elevation of modern and Late Pleistocene species occurrences were collected from data bases for 26 species living in mountain or flatland environments. Regressions of elevation change over latitude, and southern and northern range edges were calculated for each species for modern and fossil data sets. A combination of regressions and anova s were used to test whether flatland species shift range edges and latitudinal extents more than mountain species do. Results Flatland species had significantly larger northward shifts at southern range edges than did mountain‐dwelling species from the Late Pleistocene to the present. There was also a significant negative correlation between the amount of change in the latitude of the southern edge of the range and the amount of elevational shifting from the Late Pleistocene to the present. Although significant, only c. 25% of the variance could be explained by this relationship. In addition, there was a weak indication that overall range expansion was less in flatland‐dwelling than in mountain‐dwelling species. Main conclusions The approach used here was to examine past species’ range responses to warming that occurred after the last ice ages as a means to better predict potential future responses to continued warming. The results confirm predictions of differential southern edge and overall range shifts for species occupying mountain and flatland regions in North America. The findings may be broadly applicable in other regions, thus allowing better modelling of future range and distribution related responses.     

Evergreen leaf respiration acclimates to long-term nocturnal warming under field conditions

Acclimation of plant respiration rates (R) to climate warming is highly variable and many results appear contradictory. We tested the recently suggested hypotheses that pre‐existing, long‐lived leaves should exhibit a relatively limited ability for R to acclimate to climate warming, and that acclimation would occur via changes in the short‐term temperature sensitivity of respiration. Seedlings of a subalpine, evergreen tree species (Eucalyptus pauciflora) were grown under naturally fluctuating conditions within its natural distribution. We used a free air temperature increase (FATI) system of infra‐red ceramic lamps to raise night‐time leaf temperatures by 0.3±0.1, 1.3±0.1, and 2.2±0.1 °C above ambient for 1 year. Light‐saturated assimilation rates and plant growth did not change with nocturnal FATI treatments. Leaf R measured at prevailing temperatures did not differ between FATI treatments. Within each FATI treatment, nocturnal leaf R was highly sensitive to artificial temperature changes within minutes, and also correlated strongly with natural nocturnal and seasonal temperature variation. The corresponding values of Q₁₀ of R varied according to time scale of measurements, but did not vary between FATI treatments. Instead, acclimation of R to nocturnal FATI occurred through changes in the base rate of respiration.     

A climatic threshold triggers the die‐off of peat mosses during an extreme heat wave

Heat waves, which are projected to be more frequent and intense in a warmer climate, could become a serious threat to plants that rely on water surplus availability, such as bryophytes. Here, I take the advantage of the European summer 2003 climate anomaly to assess the impact of an extreme heat wave on peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum, a group of bryophytes forming the bulk of living and dead biomass in peatlands. With this aim, 20 selected bogs in the Italian Alps were checked for Sphagnum survival in the years following the heat wave. Over the study area, the period May–September 2003 was characterized by higher mean monthly air temperature (13.5 °C) and lower mean monthly precipitation (87 mm) compared with normal climatic conditions (11.5 °C and 117 mm, respectively) so that the heat wave coincided with a drought spell. As a consequence of the unusual water stress, I documented an increased mortality of peat mosses forming high hummocks. In particular, at habitat scale, the distribution of desiccated peat mosses was restricted to the hummock face receiving the greatest amount of solar irradiation. However, at regional scale, the present study identified a climatic threshold, simply defined by the ratio of precipitation to temperature (P : T), which triggered an irreversible desiccation of peat mosses when mean monthly P : T dropped below 6.5 (mm : °C) during May–September 2003. The absence of any sign of recovery after 4 years since the drought must be seen as a harbinger of the deleterious effects of extreme heat waves on organisms not adapted to cope with abrupt climate anomaly.     

Investigating the potential impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population

Recent increases in global temperatures have affected the phenology and survival of many species of plants and animals. We investigated a case study of the effects of potential climate change on a thermally sensitive species, the loggerhead sea turtle, at a breeding location at the northerly extent of the range of regular nesting in the United States. In addition to the physical limits imposed by temperature on this ectothermic species, sea turtle primary sex ratio is determined by the temperature experienced by eggs during the middle third of incubation. We recorded sand temperatures and used historical air temperatures (ATs) at Bald Head Island, NC, to examine past and predict future sex ratios under scenarios of warming. There were no significant temporal trends in primary sex ratio evident in recent years and estimated mean annual sex ratio was 58% female. Similarly, there were no temporal trends in phenology but earlier nesting and longer nesting seasons were correlated with warmer sea surface temperature. We modelled the effects of incremental increases in mean AT of up to 7.5°C, the maximum predicted increase under modelled scenarios, which would lead to 100% female hatchling production and lethally high incubation temperatures, causing reduction in hatchling production. Populations of turtles in more southern parts of the United States are currently highly female biased and are likely to become ultra‐biased with as little as 1°C of warming and experience extreme levels of mortality if warming exceeds 3°C. The lack of a demonstrable increase in AT in North Carolina in recent decades coupled with primary sex ratios that are not highly biased means that the male offspring from North Carolina could play an increasingly important role in the future viability of the loggerhead turtle in the Western Atlantic.     

Linking environmental warming to the fitness of the invasive clam Corbicula fluminea

Climate warming is discussed as a factor that can favour the success of invasive species. In the present study, we analysed potential fitness gains of moderate warming (3 °C above field temperature) on the invasive clam Corbicula fluminea during summer and winter. The experiments were conducted under seminatural conditions in a bypass-system of a large river (Rhine, Germany). We showed that warming in late summer results in a significant decrease in the clams' growth rates (body mass and shell length increase) and an increase in mortality rate. The addition of planktonic food dampens the negative effect of warming on the growth rates. This suggests that the reason for the negative growth effect of temperature increase in late summer is a negative energetic balance caused by an enhanced metabolic rate at limited food levels. Warming during early summer revealed contrasting effects with respect of body mass (no warming effect) and shell length (increased shell growth with warming). This differential control of both parameters further enhances the loss of the relative (size-specific) body mass with warming. In contrast, warming in winter had a consistently positive effect on the clams' growth rate as demonstrated in two independent experiments. Furthermore, the reproduction success (as measured by the average number of larvae per clam) during the main breeding period (April) was strongly enhanced by experimental warming during winter, i.e. by eight times during the relatively cold winter 2005/2006 and by 2.6 times during the relatively warm winter 2007/2008. This strong, positive effect of moderate winter warming on the clams' fitness is probably one reason for the recent invasion success of C. fluminea in the northern hemisphere. However, warm summer events might counteract the positive winter warming effect, which could balance out the fitness gains.     

Thermal tolerance and climate warming sensitivity in tropical snails

Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because their thermal tolerance limits generally lie close to current maximum air temperatures. This prediction derives primarily from studies on insects and lizards and remains untested for other taxa with contrasting ecologies. We studied the HCT (heat coma temperatures) and ULT (upper lethal temperatures) of 40 species of tropical eulittoral snails (Littorinidae and Neritidae) inhabiting exposed rocky shores and shaded mangrove forests in Oceania, Africa, Asia and North America. We also estimated extremes in animal body temperature at each site using a simple heat budget model and historical (20 years) air temperature and solar radiation data. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that HCT and ULT exhibit limited adaptive variation across habitats (mangroves vs. rocky shores) or geographic locations despite their contrasting thermal regimes. Instead, the elevated heat tolerance of these species (HCT = 44.5 ± 1.8°C and ULT = 52.1 ± 2.2°C) seems to reflect the extreme temperature variability of intertidal systems. Sensitivity to climate warming, which was quantified as the difference between HCT or ULT and maximum body temperature, differed greatly between snails from sunny (rocky shore; Thermal Safety Margin, TSM = −14.8 ± 3.3°C and −6.2 ± 4.4°C for HCT and ULT, respectively) and shaded (mangrove) habitats (TSM = 5.1 ± 3.6°C and 12.5 ± 3.6°C). Negative TSMs in rocky shore animals suggest that mortality is likely ameliorated during extreme climatic events by behavioral thermoregulation. Given the low variability in heat tolerance across species, habitat and geographic location account for most of the variation in TSM and may adequately predict the vulnerability to climate change. These findings caution against generalizations on the impact of global warming across ectothermic taxa and highlight how the consideration of nonmodel animals, ecological transitions, and behavioral responses may alter predictions of studies that ignore these biological details.     

Physiological ecology meets climate change

In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms.     

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

Net greenhouse gas fluxes in Brazilian ethanol production systems

Biofuels are both a promising solution to global warming mitigation and a potential contributor to the problem. Several life cycle assessments of bioethanol have been conducted to address these questions. We performed a synthesis of the available data on Brazilian ethanol production focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon (C) sinks in the agricultural and industrial phases. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from fossil fuels, methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from sources commonly included in C footprints, such as fossil fuel usage, biomass burning, nitrogen fertilizer application, liming and litter decomposition were accounted for. In addition, black carbon (BC) emissions from burning biomass and soil C sequestration were included in the balance. Most of the annual emissions per hectare are in the agricultural phase, both in the burned system (2209 out of a total of 2398 kg C_eq), and in the unburned system (559 out of 748 kg C_eq). Although nitrogen fertilizer emissions are large, 111 kg C_eq ha^?1 yr^?1, the largest single source of emissions is biomass burning in the manual harvest system, with a large amount of both GHG (196 kg C_eq ha^?1 yr^?1). and BC (1536 kg C_eq ha^?1 yr^?1). Besides avoiding emissions from biomass burning, harvesting sugarcane mechanically without burning tends to increase soil C stocks, providing a C sink of 1500 kg C ha^?1 yr^?1 in the 30 cm layer. The data show a C output: input ratio of 1.4 for ethanol produced under the conventionally burned and manual harvest compared with 6.5 for the mechanized harvest without burning, signifying the importance of conservation agricultural systems in bioethanol feedstock production.