Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Projection of land use and land-cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land-use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well-defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.     

The role of aquatic moss on community composition and drift of fish-food organisms

Macroinvertebrate density, biomass and drift were studied from moss-covered and moss-free channels in the South Fork Salmon River, Idaho. Insect densities were compared for 10 different substrate types and locations involving moss (Fontinalis neo-mexicana), sand, pebbles and cobbles. An ANOVA test demonstrated that insect densities varied significantly with substrate type (P < 0.05), and that total insect density in moss clumps differed significantly from densities in mineral substrates. Insect densities were 4–18 times greater in moss clumps than in mineral substrates under and adjacent to moss; sands under moss supported the lowest densities. During most tests, densities in pebble and cobble substrates adjacent to moss clumps were not significantly different from those found in similar substrates in the moss-free channel. The 20% moss-covered channel had 1.6 to 7.2 greater insect density and 1.4 to 6.1 greater biomass than did the moss-free channel for the tests conducted. Generally, midges (Chironomidae) made up over 50% of the insect community; annelids were the principal non-insect invertebrates.In spite of greater insect density and biomass in a moss-covered than in the moss-free channel, we did not demonstrate universally increased drift of the immature stages from the moss-covered channel, at least during daylight hours. As a consequence, we infer that salmonid fishes, feeding primarily on drifting insects during the daytime, may not derive increased caloric benefit from moss habitats until the insects emerge as adults.     

AN ALTERNATE GROWTH PATTERN FOR LAMINARIA LONGICRURIS1,2

A population of Laminaria longicruris de la Pylaie was followed for a year at Bic Island, Quebec, Canada where nutrient levels in the seawater were elevated throughout the year. Tagged kelp were measured each month for growth and analyzed for alginic acid, laminaran, mannitol, carbon, nitrogen, and nitrate. Maximum growth (3.5 cm · d^?1) was observed in June, and minimal growth (0.18 cm · d^?1) from December to February, when ice cover limited light levels. No reserves of carbon or nitrate were formed. Laminaran levels remained below 2.7% dry weight while tissue nitrate did not exceed 0.75 μmol · g^?1 dry weight. Total carbon produced per plant was 40 g C · yr^?1. Nutrient availability enables the kelp to take advantage of summer light and temperature conditions to grow rapidly.     

Estimating Cloud Cover

The purpose of this activity was to help students understand the percentage of cloud cover and make more accurate cloud cover observations. Students estimated the percentage of cloud cover represented by simulated clouds and assigned a cloud cover classification to those simulations.     

Evidence for deviations from uniform changes in a Portuguese watershed illustrated by CORINE maps: An Intensity Analysis approach

We apply a method to evaluate the strength of the evidence for deviations from uniform land change in a coastal area, in the context of Intensity Analysis. The errors in the CORINE maps at 1990 and 2006 can influence the apparent change, but the errors are unknown because error assessment of the 1990 map has never been released, while the error of the 2006 map has been checked for only some countries. The 1990 and the 2006 maps of a coastal watershed in Portugal served as the data to compute the intensities of changes among eight categories. We evaluate the sizes and types of errors that could explain deviations from uniform intensities. Errors in 2.0% of the 2006 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform gains. Errors in 1.5% of the 1990 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform losses. Errors in less than 0.7% of the 1990 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform transitions to each gaining category. We analyse the strength of the evidence for deviations from uniform intensities in light of historical processes of change. Historical processes can explain some transitions that the data show, while the hypothesised errors in the data are the explanation for other transitions that are not consistent with known processes. Inconsistent transitions are an indication of the misclassification errors that could propagate to other land cover change applications, as in the assessment of hydrological processes.     

Changes in bird communities in Swaziland savannas between 1998 and 2008 owing to shrub encroachment

Aim This study investigates changes in bird communities between 1998 and 2008 in four savanna sites in Swaziland and the extent to which shrub encroachment is responsible for these changes. Location Swaziland, southern Africa. Methods Generalized estimated equations were used to estimate changes in bird species occurrence between 1998 and 2008. Remote sensing of aerial photographs/satellite images was used to assess vegetation changes during the same period. We assessed the role of shrub encroachment for bird communities by testing the relationship between change in species occurrence and species habitat using a general linear model. We also estimated species richness, colonization and extinction and used general linear models to test the effects of vegetation changes on these parameters. Results More than half of the bird species showed a significant change in occurrence between 1998 and 2008: 32 species increased and 29 decreased. Change in species occurrence was significantly explained by species habitat. Species significantly increasing were mainly associated with wooded savanna, whereas species significantly decreasing were mainly associated with open savanna. Species richness decreased significantly, and this decrease was significantly explained by shrub cover increase at the plot scale (from 24% to 44% on average). Extinction at the plot scale was significantly influenced by the loss of grass cover, while colonization at the plot scale was influenced by tree cover increase. Main conclusions This study represents the first evidence of temporal changes in bird communities owing to shrub encroachment in southern Africa. Despite its short time frame (10 years), this study shows dramatic changes in both vegetation structure and bird community composition. This confirms the general concern for southern African bird species associated with open savanna if current trends continue.     

Climate limitation at the cold edge: contrasting perspectives from species distribution modelling and a transplant experiment

The role of climate in determining range margins is often studied using species distribution models (SDMs), which are easily applied but have well-known limitations, e.g. due to their correlative nature and colonization and extinction time lags. Transplant experiments can give more direct information on environmental effects, but often cover small spatial and temporal scales. We simultaneously applied a SDM using high-resolution spatial predictors and an integral projection (demographic) model based on a transplant experiment at 58 sites to examine the effects of microclimate, light and soil conditions on the distribution and performance of a forest herb, Lathyrus vernus, at its cold range margin in central Sweden. In the SDM, occurrences were strongly associated with warmer climates. In contrast, only weak effects of climate were detected in the transplant experiment, whereas effects of soil conditions and light dominated. The higher contribution of climate in the SDM is likely a result from its correlation with soil quality, forest type and potentially historic land use, which were unaccounted for in the model. Predicted habitat suitability and population growth rate, yielded by the two approaches, were not correlated across the transplant sites. We argue that the ranking of site habitat suitability is probably more reliable in the transplant experiment than in the SDM because predictors in the former better describe understory conditions, but that ranking might vary among years, e.g. due to differences in climate. Our results suggest that L. vernus is limited by soil and light rather than directly by climate at its northern range edge, where conifers dominate forests and create suboptimal conditions of soil and canopy-penetrating light. A general implication of our study is that to better understand how climate change influences range dynamics, we should not only strive to improve existing approaches but also to use multiple approaches in concert.     

Grazing and productivity alter individual grass size dynamics in semi-arid woodlands

The spatial arrangement of perennial vegetation is critical for ecosystem function in drylands. While much is known about how vegetation patches respond to grazing and abiotic conditions, the size dynamics of individual plants is mostly limited to theoretical studies. We measured the size distribution (mean, variance, skewness) and density of individual grasses, and grass species composition at 451 sites spanning a range of grazing intensities across three broad vegetation communities in semi-arid eastern Australia. We assessed the relative role of grazing by livestock (cattle and sheep), native (kangaroos) and introduced (rabbits) free ranging herbivores, and several environmental measures (productivity, diversity, composition and groundstorey plant cover) on the size distribution and density of individual grasses. We found mean grass size and density were more sensitive to shifts in grazing intensity and environmental conditions than size variance or the frequency of the smallest individuals (skewness), and shifts were mostly driven by site productivity and cattle and kangaroo grazing. Sheep grazing only reduced mean grass size, and rabbit grazing had no consistent effects. Importantly, we found that site productivity and species composition altered the impacts of grazing on grass density and size distribution. For example, increasing cattle grazing led to larger grasses in low productivity sites. It also led to larger, denser, more variable-sized grasses among grass species from sites with finer soil texture. Increasing kangaroo grazing led to smaller, denser individuals among grass species from sites with coarse soil texture. At high diversity sites kangaroo grazing led to denser, more homogenised grass sizes with a lower frequency of small individuals. Understanding the in situ response of individual plant sizes gives us insights into the processes driving shifts in perennial vegetation patchiness, improving our ability to predict how the spatial arrangement of ecosystems might change under global change scenarios.     

Impact of brood parasitism and predation on nest survival of the fan-tailed gerygone in New Caledonia

Predation and brood parasitism are common reasons for nesting failure in passerine species and the additive impact by invasive species is a major conservation concern, particularly on tropical islands. Recognising the relative contribution of the different components of nesting failure rates is important to understand co-evolutionary interactions within brood parasite–host systems. In the remote archipelago of New Caledonia, the fan-tailed gerygone Gerygone flavolateralis is the exclusive host of the brood-parasitic shining bronze-cuckoo Chalcites lucidus. Additionally, invasive rodents also possibly have an impact on breeding success. To estimate the impact of potential nest predators, we 1) video monitored nests to identify predators, 2) estimated the probability of predation based on nest visibility and predator abundance and 3) tested the possibility that the location of experimental nests and lack of odour cues decrease the predation by rodents. In addition, we estimated nest survival rates using data collected in different habitats over the course of eight breeding seasons. Nesting success of fan-tailed gerygones was relatively low and predation was the main cause of nesting failure. We recorded mainly predation by native birds, including the shining bronze-cuckoo, whereas predation by rats was rare. In open habitats predation by cuckoos was much lower than predation by other avian predators. Neither predator activity around nests nor nest visibility influenced the probability of predation. Experimental nests in more accessible locations and containing an odorous bait were more exposed to rodent predation. Apparently, the fan-tailed gerygone has either never been specifically vulnerable to predation by rats or has developed anti-predator adaptations.