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Avian seasonal timing is a life‐history trait with important fitness consequences and which is currently under directional selection due to climate change. To predict micro‐evolution in this trait, it is crucial to properly estimate its heritability. Heritabilities are often estimated from pedigreed wild populations. As these are observational data, it leaves the possibility that the resemblance between related individuals is not due to shared genes but to ontogenetic effects; when the environment for the offspring provided by early laying pairs differs from that by late pairs and the laying dates of these offspring when they reproduce themselves is affected by this environment, this may lead to inflated heritability estimates. Using simulation studies, we first tested whether and how much such an early environmental effect can inflate heritability estimates from animal models, and we showed that pedigree structure determines by how much early environmental effects inflate heritability estimates. We then used data from a wild population of great tits (Parus major) to compare laying dates of females born early in the season in first broods and from sisters born much later, in second broods. These birds are raised under very different environmental conditions but have the same genetic background. The laying dates of first and second brood offspring do not differ when they reproduce themselves, clearly showing that ontogenetic effects are very small and hence, family resemblance in timing is due to genes. This finding is essential for the interpretation of the heritabilities reported from wild populations and for predicting micro‐evolution in response to climate change. 相似文献
124.
Habitat banking in its many iterations is an established and popular mechanism to deliver environmental offsets. The United States can look back at over 30 years of banking experience with the underlying framework and policies being consistently updated and improved. Given the increased demand in habitat banking, we provide insights into how bank area capacity is distributed across the United States for four different bank targets (wetlands, streams, multiple ecosystems, species) based on information extracted from the Regulatory In-lieu Fee and Bank Information Tracking System, as well as, estimating future capacities and area reserves through a predictive modeling approach based on data from the past 26 years. Future predictions indicate a decrease in available reserves for banks targeting wetlands or multiple ecosystems, with potential bottlenecks relating to large reserves being limited to the southeast and release schedules not catching up to the current and anticipated demand. Banks targeting species or streams are predicted to meet future demand, with species banks (conservation banks) following a different legislative and operational approach based on the listing of endangered species and pro-active approaches with anticipated future demand. Most current reserves for all four bank types are restricted to very few service areas with around one-third of all bank areas still awaiting release, limiting their availability on a broader scale. Strategic planning networks are necessary to meet future demand on a national scale and to identify areas suitable for banking or likely to experience future environmental or developmental stress. 相似文献
125.
Sinha SK Troxel AB Lipsitz SR Sinha D Fitzmaurice GM Molenberghs G Ibrahim JG 《Biometrics》2011,67(3):1119-1126
For analyzing longitudinal binary data with nonignorable and nonmonotone missing responses, a full likelihood method is complicated algebraically, and often requires intensive computation, especially when there are many follow-up times. As an alternative, a pseudolikelihood approach has been proposed in the literature under minimal parametric assumptions. This formulation only requires specification of the marginal distributions of the responses and missing data mechanism, and uses an independence working assumption. However, this estimator can be inefficient for estimating both time-varying and time-stationary effects under moderate to strong within-subject associations among repeated responses. In this article, we propose an alternative estimator, based on a bivariate pseudolikelihood, and demonstrate in simulations that the proposed method can be much more efficient than the previous pseudolikelihood obtained under the assumption of independence. We illustrate the method using longitudinal data on CD4 counts from two clinical trials of HIV-infected patients. 相似文献
126.
Extracorporeal bioartificial liver devices (BAL) are perhaps among the most promising technologies for the treatment of liver failure, but significant technical challenges remain in order to develop systems with sufficient processing capacity and of manageable size. One key limitation is that during BAL operation, when the device is exposed to plasma from the patient, hepatocytes are prone to accumulate intracellular lipids and exhibit poor liver-specific functions. Based on hepatic intermediary metabolism, we have utilized mathematical programming techniques to optimize the biochemical environment of hepatocyte cultures towards the desired effect of increased albumin and urea synthesis. To investigate the feasible range of optimal hepatic function, we have obtained a Pareto optimal set of solutions corresponding to liver-specific functions of urea and albumin secretion in the metabolic framework using multiobjective optimization. The importance of amino acids in the supplementation and the criticality of the metabolic pathways have been investigated using logic-based programming techniques. Since the metabolite measurements are bound to be patient specific, and hence subject to variability, uncertainty has to be integrated with system analysis to improve the prediction of hepatic function. We have used the concept of two stage stochastic programming to obtain robust solutions by considering extracellular variability. The proposed analysis represents a new systematic approach to analyze behavior of hepatocyte cultures and optimize different operating parameters for an extracorporeal device based on real-time conditions. 相似文献
127.
Susanna T. Y. Tong 《Plant Ecology》1988,79(1-2):65-74
The plant-environment relationships in a range of matorral communities, having different rainfall conditions in semi-arid lowland habitats in Murcía, S.E. Spain, were examined using the non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination technique. Hypotheses on floristic variations were derived based on an interpretative strategy which involved a site configuration rotation, followed by stepwise multiple regression analysis. An environmental data set was used to isolate variables associated with site co-ordinate trends. Results showed that floristic variation in these communities was mainly determined by aspect induced radiation receipt. Besides, most environmental trends in the study areas were found to be oblique to original site ordination axes and configuration rotation seemed to be a prerequisite in quantitative interpretation. The interpretative strategy introduced in this study was effective. It enhanced straightforward, quantitative and objective interpretation whereby inductive inferences on environmental trends could be readily formulated.Abbreviations ARAD
radiation receipt surrogate
- DEPTH
soil depth
- DISTURB
disturbance index
- NMDS
non-metric multidimensional scaling
- NUT
nutrient scalar
- SLOPE
slope angle
- TEXTIN
texture index 相似文献
128.
Error and uncertainty in habitat models 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7
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130.
In clinical trials, the comparison of two different populations is a common problem. Nonlinear (parametric) regression models are commonly used to describe the relationship between covariates, such as concentration or dose, and a response variable in the two groups. In some situations, it is reasonable to assume some model parameters to be the same, for instance, the placebo effect or the maximum treatment effect. In this paper, we develop a (parametric) bootstrap test to establish the similarity of two regression curves sharing some common parameters. We show by theoretical arguments and by means of a simulation study that the new test controls its significance level and achieves a reasonable power. Moreover, it is demonstrated that under the assumption of common parameters, a considerably more powerful test can be constructed compared with the test that does not use this assumption. Finally, we illustrate the potential applications of the new methodology by a clinical trial example. 相似文献