相关遗传力抽样方差的估计

本文给出了单因子组和系统模型下有关相关传力及相关环境力抽样方差的估计方法。有关该参数在育种中的潜在应用其它与遗传相关之产间的相互关系也给予了一定的讨论。概括地来讲,相关遗传力具有遗传力和遗传相关的双重特征。遗传力是相关遗传力的一个特例而相关遗传力则是遗传力概念本身的扩展。用相关遗传力来表达性状间的相关遗传变异要比通常所用的遗传相关更准确一些。     

高危结直肠腺瘤的危险因素及风险预测模型的构建与验证

摘要 目的：探讨高危结直肠腺瘤的影响因素,构建风险预测模型并验证。方法：回顾性分析2021年1月至2021年12月期间在江苏大学附属人民医院进行诊疗的1408例结直肠腺瘤患者的资料,根据病理特征分为高危结直肠腺瘤组（759例）和非高危结直肠腺瘤组（649例）。采用Logistic回归分析筛选高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素并建立风险预测模型,并验证预测模型的应用效能。结果：Logistic回归分析结果显示,病灶部位为直肠、高血压、高脂血症、年龄≥53岁、吸烟是高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）。基于以上因素建立预测高危结直肠腺瘤风险的列线图模型,经Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）分析显示,该风险预测模型具有较好的拟合度和预测效能,可以用于高危腺瘤的风险预测。结论：病灶部位为直肠、高血压、高脂血症、年龄≥53岁、吸烟是高危结直肠腺瘤的独立危险因素,临床医生可尽早对高危患者进行预防性干预以减缓高危腺瘤的发生。     

Substance use disorders: a comprehensive update of classification,epidemiology, neurobiology,clinical aspects,treatment and prevention

Substance use disorders (SUDs) are highly prevalent and exact a large toll on individuals’ health, well-being, and social functioning. Long-lasting changes in brain networks involved in reward, executive function, stress reactivity, mood, and self-awareness underlie the intense drive to consume substances and the inability to control this urge in a person who suffers from addiction (moderate or severe SUD). Biological (including genetics and developmental life stages) and social (including adverse childhood experiences) determinants of health are recognized factors that contribute to vulnerability for or resilience against developing a SUD. Consequently, prevention strategies that target social risk factors can improve outcomes and, when deployed in childhood and adolescence, can decrease the risk for these disorders. SUDs are treatable, and evidence of clinically significant benefit exists for medications (in opioid, nicotine and alcohol use disorders), behavioral therapies (in all SUDs), and neuromodulation (in nicotine use disorder). Treatment of SUDs should be considered within the context of a Chronic Care Model, with the intensity of intervention adjusted to the severity of the disorder and with the concomitant treatment of comorbid psychiatric and physical conditions. Involvement of health care providers in detection and management of SUDs, including referral of severe cases to specialized care, offers sustainable models of care that can be further expanded with the use of telehealth. Despite advances in our understanding and management of SUDs, individuals with these conditions continue to be stigmatized and, in some countries, incarcerated, highlighting the need to dismantle policies that perpetuate their criminalization and instead develop policies to ensure support and access to prevention and treatment.     

Validation of the European corn borer damage model on maize using X rays

In order to explain and predict yield losses caused by European corn borer larvae, Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn. (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), a mechanistic model was proposed to describe cavity appearance, their lengthwise extension, and their within-plant distribution. It integrates main dynamical processes of larvae: mortality, development and within-plant distribution. After its estimation and test under field conditions in 1988 and 1989, its validation, based upon X-ray photographs, is presented. This method allows cavity appearance and lengthwise extension to be followed without damaging the plants. This study confirms the relevance of the damage model and the rate of cavity lengthwise extension estimated with it.     

ORGANIZATION OF PREDATOR-PREY COMMUNITIES AS AN EVOLUTIONARY GAME

We consider a simple predator-prey model of coevolution. By allowing coevolution both within and between trophic levels the model breaks the traditional dichotomy between coevolution among competitors and coevolution between a prey and its predator. By allowing the diversity of prey and predator species to emerge as a property of the evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS), the model breaks another constraint of most approaches to coevolution that consider as fixed the number of coevolving species. The number of species comprising the ESS is influenced by a parameter that determines the predator's niche breadth. Depending upon the parameter's value the ESS may contain: 1) one prey and one predator species, 2) two prey and one predator, 3) two prey and two predators, 4) three prey and two predators, 5) three prey and three predators, etc. Evolutionarily, these different ESSs all emerge from the same model. Ecologically, however, these ESSs result in very different patterns of community organization. In some communities the predator species are ecologically keystone in that their removal results in extinctions among the prey species. In others, the removal of a predator species has no significant impact on the prey community. These varied ecological roles for the predator species contrasts sharply with the essential evolutionary role of the predators in promoting prey species diversity. The ghost of predation past in which a predator's insignificant ecological role obscures its essential evolutionary role may be a frequent property of communities of predator and prey.     

INFLUENCE OF CELL SHAPE AND SIZE ON ALGAL COMPETITIVE ABILITY1

Allometric relations between physiological processes and cell volume and surface area are combined with the variable-internal-stores model of growth to predict the ability of hypothetical phytoplankton to compete for phosphorus at equilibrium. The analysis shows that for spherical cells, smaller cells are better competitors than large ones. For cells that are very elongated in shape, however, large cells are often better competitors than small ones. The cells predicted to be the best competitors compare favorably in size and shape with the species observed to dominate in phosphorus-limited chemostats at equilibrium.     

COMPETITION BETWEEN STAURASTRUM LUETKEMUELLERII (CHLOROPHYCEAE) AND MICROCYSTIS AERUGINOSA(CYANOPHYCEAE) UNDER VARYING MODES OF PHOSPHATE SUPPLY1

The desmid Staurastrum luetkemuellerii Donat et Ruttner and the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa Kütz. were grown in mixed cultures with various phosphate (P_i) additions. One pulse of P_i each day (semi-continuous cultures) favored M. aeruginosa whereas S. luetkemuellerii was favored when the same quantity of P_i was supplied continuously (chemostats). Both species coexisted under P limitation provided that the nutrient was supplied in an appropriate mode. The ability of each species to compete for P depended on their P_i uptake characteristics and their capability to retain the accumulated P_i. High affinity in uptake at low P_i concentrations contributed considerably to the growth eficiency of S. luetkemuellerii under continuous supply of P_iM. aeruginosa was, however, consistently superior to S. luetkemuellerii in accuniulatiug the newly added P, but had a high rate of P_i release. In both -types of cultures, a net high of P went from M. aeruginosa to S. luetkemuellerii. The kinetic characteristics of the two species were used to simulate the outcome of competition experiments. Simulations agreed with the experimental data f both uptake and P_i release were considered in the model. The zlariable P*(the concentration of P_i at which the net uptake is equal to μ·Q_P is a function of uptake and release of P_i but could not explain the chemostat results. S. luetkemuellerii was the winner in many experiments even if its P*was higher thou that of M. aeruginosa. Thus, in the present case P_c (the concentration at which the net uptake is zero) was a better predictor of the ability to compete for P_i under steady state as well as transient conditions in the P_i supply.     

Summer Epidemics of Apple Scab: The Relationship between Measurements and their Implications for the Development of Predictive Models and Threshold Levels under Different Disease Control Regimes

A 2‐year study on epidemic progress of apple scab was conducted at Randwijk, the Netherlands, in 1998 and 1999. The summer epidemic caused by conidia was studied instead of the well‐described spring season epidemic originating from ascospores. The aim was to investigate relationships between disease measurements, i.e. disease incidence and severity measures of apple scab, and their implications for the development of predictive models and threshold levels. The study characterized good relationships between the measurements on cultivar Jonagold using regression analyses in three disease control regimes (untreated, organic and integrated). For fruit quality prediction, the relationship between fruit incidence (I_f) and leaf incidence (I_l) in the organic control regime was given by I_f = 1.966 + 0.402 × (I_l) (R² = 0.92). As a result of low level of disease in the integrated control regime, shoot incidence (I_s), with higher values than leaf incidence, was better suited for prediction. The relationship was given by I_f = ?0.162 + 0.028 × (I_s) (R² = 0.91). For the integrated control regime, disease threshold levels were constructed for timing of the final fungicide application. If an apple grower wants to keep fruit infection under 1% incidence (harvest scab threshold), the timing of the final fungicide application (action threshold) should correspond to 4% shoot scab incidence at the beginning of August. The results are compared with similar studies and their biological interpretation is discussed.     

A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics

Changes in vegetation structure and biogeography due to climate change feedback to alter climate by changing fluxes of energy, moisture, and momentum between land and atmosphere. While the current class of land process models used with climate models parameterizes these fluxes in detail, these models prescribe surface vegetation and leaf area from data sets. In this paper, we describe an approach in which ecological concepts from a global vegetation dynamics model are added to the land component of a climate model to grow plants interactively. The vegetation dynamics model is the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model. The land model is the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Land Surface Model (LSM). Vegetation is defined in terms of plant functional types. Each plant functional type is represented by an individual plant with the average biomass, crown area, height, and stem diameter (trees only) of its population, by the number of individuals in the population, and by the fractional cover in the grid cell. Three time‐scales (minutes, days, and years) govern the processes. Energy fluxes, the hydrologic cycle, and carbon assimilation, core processes in LSM, occur at a 20 min time step. Instantaneous net assimilated carbon is accumulated annually to update vegetation once a year. This is carried out with the addition of establishment, resource competition, growth, mortality, and fire parameterizations from LPJ. The leaf area index is updated daily based on prevailing environmental conditions, but the maximum value depends on the annual vegetation dynamics. The coupling approach is successful. The model simulates global biogeography, net primary production, and dynamics of tundra, boreal forest, northern hardwood forest, tropical rainforest, and savanna ecosystems, which are consistent with observations. This suggests that the model can be used with a climate model to study biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system related to vegetation dynamics.