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Bioenergetics models estimate ectotherm growth, production, and prey consumption – all key for effective ecosystem management during changing global temperatures. Based on species-specific allometric and thermodynamic relationships, these models typically use the species' lab-derived optimum temperatures (physiological optimum) as opposed to empirical field data (realized thermal niche) that reflect actual thermal experience. Yet, dynamic behavioral thermoregulation mediated by biotic and abiotic interactions may provide substantial divergence between physiological optimum and realized thermal niche temperatures to significantly bias model outcomes. Here, using the Wisconsin bioenergetics model and in-situ year-round temperature data, we tested the two approaches and compared the maximum attainable lifetime weight and lifetime prey consumption estimates for two salmonid species with differing life histories. We demonstrate that using the realized thermal niche is the better approach because it eliminates significant biases in estimates produced by the physiological optimum. Specifically, using the physiological optimum, slower-growing Salvelinus namaycush maximum attainable lifetime weight was underestimated, and consumption overestimated, while fast-growing Oncorhynchus tshawytscha maximum attainable weight was overestimated. While the physiological optimum approach is useful for theoretical studies, our results demonstrate the critical importance that models used by management utilize up-to-date system- and species-specific field data representing actual in-situ behaviors (i.e., realized thermal niche). 相似文献
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Diego I. Gallardo;Márcia Brandão;Jeremias Leão;Marcelo Bourguignon;Vinicius Calsavara; 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2024,66(6):e202300257
We introduce a new modelling for long-term survival models, assuming that the number of competing causes follows a mixture of Poisson and the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. In this context, we present some statistical properties of our model and demonstrate that the promotion time model emerges as a limiting case. We delve into detailed discussions of specific models within this class. Notably, we examine the expected number of competing causes, which depends on covariates. This allows for direct modeling of the cure rate as a function of covariates. We present an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation, to discuss the estimation via maximum likelihood (ML) and provide insights into parameter inference for this model. Additionally, we outline sufficient conditions for ensuring the consistency and asymptotic normal distribution of ML estimators. To evaluate the performance of our estimation method, we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to provide asymptotic properties and a power study of LR test by contrasting our methodology against the promotion time model. To demonstrate the practical applicability of our model, we apply it to a real medical dataset from a population-based study of incidence of breast cancer in São Paulo, Brazil. Our results illustrate that the proposed model can outperform traditional approaches in terms of model fitting, highlighting its potential utility in real-world scenarios. 相似文献
226.
Ikebe J Kamiya N Ito J Shindo H Higo J 《Protein science : a publication of the Protein Society》2007,16(8):1596-1608
The monomeric Alzheimer's beta amyloid peptide, Abeta, is known to adopt a disordered state in water at room temperature, and a circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy experiment has provided the secondary-structure contents for the disordered state: 70% random, 25% beta-structural, and 5% helical. We performed an enhanced conformational sampling (multicanonical molecular dynamics simulation) of a 25-residue segment (residues 12-36) of Abeta in explicit water and obtained the conformational ensemble over a wide temperature range. The secondary-structure contents calculated from the conformational ensemble at 300 degrees K reproduced the experimental secondary-structure contents. The constructed free-energy landscape at 300 degrees K was not plain but rugged with five clearly distinguishable clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristic tertiary structure: a helix-structural cluster, two beta-structural clusters, and two random-structural clusters. This indicates that the contribution from the five individual clusters determines the secondary-structure contents experimentally measured. The helical cluster had a similarity with a stable helical structure for monomeric Abeta in 2,2,2-trifluoroethanol (TFE)/water determined by an NMR experiment: The positions of helices in the helical cluster were the same as those in the NMR structure, and the residue-residue contact patterns were also similar with those of the NMR structure. The cluster-cluster separation in the conformational space indicates that free-energy barriers separate the clusters at 300 degrees K. The two beta-structural clusters were characterized by different strand-strand hydrogen-bond (H-bond) patterns, suggesting that the free-energy barrier between the two clusters is due to the H-bond rearrangements. 相似文献
227.
Avian seasonal timing is a life‐history trait with important fitness consequences and which is currently under directional selection due to climate change. To predict micro‐evolution in this trait, it is crucial to properly estimate its heritability. Heritabilities are often estimated from pedigreed wild populations. As these are observational data, it leaves the possibility that the resemblance between related individuals is not due to shared genes but to ontogenetic effects; when the environment for the offspring provided by early laying pairs differs from that by late pairs and the laying dates of these offspring when they reproduce themselves is affected by this environment, this may lead to inflated heritability estimates. Using simulation studies, we first tested whether and how much such an early environmental effect can inflate heritability estimates from animal models, and we showed that pedigree structure determines by how much early environmental effects inflate heritability estimates. We then used data from a wild population of great tits (Parus major) to compare laying dates of females born early in the season in first broods and from sisters born much later, in second broods. These birds are raised under very different environmental conditions but have the same genetic background. The laying dates of first and second brood offspring do not differ when they reproduce themselves, clearly showing that ontogenetic effects are very small and hence, family resemblance in timing is due to genes. This finding is essential for the interpretation of the heritabilities reported from wild populations and for predicting micro‐evolution in response to climate change. 相似文献
228.
Juergen Haas Rafal Gumienny Alessandro Barbato Flavio Ackermann Gerardo Tauriello Martino Bertoni Gabriel Studer Anna Smolinski Torsten Schwede 《Proteins》2019,87(12):1378-1387
Critical blind assessment of structure prediction techniques is crucial for the scientific community to establish the state of the art, identify bottlenecks, and guide future developments. In Critical Assessment of Techniques in Structure Prediction (CASP), human experts assess the performance of participating methods in relation to the difficulty of the prediction task in a biennial experiment on approximately 100 targets. Yet, the development of automated computational modeling methods requires more frequent evaluation cycles and larger sets of data. The “Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO)” platform complements CASP by conducting fully automated blind prediction evaluations based on the weekly pre-release of sequences of those structures, which are going to be published in the next release of the Protein Data Bank (PDB). Each week, CAMEO publishes benchmarking results for predictions corresponding to a set of about 20 targets collected during a 4-day prediction window. CAMEO benchmarking data are generated consistently for all methods at the same point in time, enabling developers to cross-validate their method's performance, and referring to their results in publications. Many successful participants of CASP have used CAMEO—either by directly benchmarking their methods within the system or by comparing their own performance to CAMEO reference data. CAMEO offers a variety of scores reflecting different aspects of structure modeling, for example, binding site accuracy, homo-oligomer interface quality, or accuracy of local model confidence estimates. By introducing the \"bestSingleTemplate\" method based on structure superpositions as a reference for the accuracy of 3D modeling predictions, CAMEO facilitates objective comparison of techniques and fosters the development of advanced methods. 相似文献
229.
Habitat banking in its many iterations is an established and popular mechanism to deliver environmental offsets. The United States can look back at over 30 years of banking experience with the underlying framework and policies being consistently updated and improved. Given the increased demand in habitat banking, we provide insights into how bank area capacity is distributed across the United States for four different bank targets (wetlands, streams, multiple ecosystems, species) based on information extracted from the Regulatory In-lieu Fee and Bank Information Tracking System, as well as, estimating future capacities and area reserves through a predictive modeling approach based on data from the past 26 years. Future predictions indicate a decrease in available reserves for banks targeting wetlands or multiple ecosystems, with potential bottlenecks relating to large reserves being limited to the southeast and release schedules not catching up to the current and anticipated demand. Banks targeting species or streams are predicted to meet future demand, with species banks (conservation banks) following a different legislative and operational approach based on the listing of endangered species and pro-active approaches with anticipated future demand. Most current reserves for all four bank types are restricted to very few service areas with around one-third of all bank areas still awaiting release, limiting their availability on a broader scale. Strategic planning networks are necessary to meet future demand on a national scale and to identify areas suitable for banking or likely to experience future environmental or developmental stress. 相似文献
230.
Mohsen Kayal Hunter S. Lenihan Andrew J. Brooks Sally J. Holbrook Russell J. Schmitt Bruce E. Kendall 《Ecology letters》2019,22(4):605-615
Predicting whether, how, and to what degree communities recover from disturbance remain major challenges in ecology. To predict recovery of coral communities we applied field survey data of early recovery dynamics to a multi‐species integral projection model that captured key demographic processes driving coral population trajectories, notably density‐dependent larval recruitment. After testing model predictions against field observations, we updated the model to generate projections of future coral communities. Our results indicated that communities distributed across an island landscape followed different recovery trajectories but would reassemble to pre‐disturbed levels of coral abundance, composition, and size, thus demonstrating persistence in the provision of reef habitat and other ecosystem services. Our study indicates that coral community dynamics are predictable when accounting for the interplay between species life‐history, environmental conditions, and density‐dependence. We provide a quantitative framework for evaluating the ecological processes underlying community trajectory and characteristics important to ecosystem functioning. 相似文献