Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process‐based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process‐based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species.     

GO‐FAANG meeting: a Gathering On Functional Annotation of Animal Genomes

The Functional Annotation of Animal Genomes (FAANG) Consortium recently held a Gathering On FAANG (GO‐FAANG) Workshop in Washington, DC on October 7–8, 2015. This consortium is a grass‐roots organization formed to advance the annotation of newly assembled genomes of domesticated and non‐model organisms ( www.faang.org ). The workshop gathered together from around the world a group of 100+ genome scientists, administrators, representatives of funding agencies and commodity groups to discuss the latest advancements of the consortium, new perspectives, next steps and implementation plans. The workshop was streamed live and recorded, and all talks, along with speaker slide presentations, are available at www.faang.org . In this report, we describe the major activities and outcomes of this meeting. We also provide updates on ongoing efforts to implement discussions and decisions taken at GO‐FAANG to guide future FAANG activities. In summary, reference datasets are being established under pilot projects; plans for tissue sets, morphological classification and methods of sample collection for different tissues were organized; and core assays and data and meta‐data analysis standards were established.