Modelling broad‐scale wolverine occupancy in a remote boreal region using multi‐year aerial survey data

Aim

We used data from aerial surveys of wolverine tracks collected in seven winters over a 10‐year period (2003–2012) within a 574,287 km² study area to evaluate the broad‐scale pattern of wolverine occurrence across a remote northern boreal forest region, identifying areas of high and low occupancy.

Location

Northern Ontario, Canada.

Taxon

Wolverine (Gulo gulo Linnaeus, 1758).

Methods

We collected wolverine tracks and observations in 100‐km² hexagonal survey units, making a total of 6,664 visits to 3,039 units, visiting each 1–9 times. We used hierarchical Bayesian occupancy modelling to model wolverine occurrence, and included covariates with the potential to affect detection and/or occupancy probability of wolverines.

Results

we detected wolverines on 946 visits, 14.2% of total visits. Probability of detecting a wolverine varied among years and between the two ecozones in the study area. Wolverine occupancy was negatively related to two important covariates, the geographical coordinate Easting and thawing degree‐days. A site occupancy probability map indicated that wolverine occupancy probabilities were highest, and standard error lowest, in the western and northern portions of the study area.

Main conclusions

The occupancy framework enabled us to use observation data from tracks of this elusive, wide‐ranging carnivore over a vast, remote area while explicitly considering detectability and spatial autocorrelation, yielding a map of probable wolverine distribution in northern Ontario that would not be possible using other methods of detection across a large region. With resource development pressures increasing in this globally significant region in the face of a changing climate, it is important to monitor changes in distribution of species like wolverines that have low population growth rates, large spatial requirements and sensitivity to human disturbance. This study demonstrates a relatively cost‐effective and non‐invasive alternative to monitoring based on wolverine harvest records, which have not been available since 2009 in Ontario due to changes in the provincial regulatory regime for this threatened species.     

A comparison of adult mosquito trapping regimes across seasons and ecosystems in Darwin,Australia

Mosquitoes are problematic as vectors and pests in many tropical cities, including Darwin, the principal city in the Northern Territory of Australia. To monitor peaks in mosquito populations, the Medical Entomology unit of the Health Department sets overnight CO₂‐baited traps weekly. Trap setting and retrieving, followed by mosquito counting and identification, are labor intensive. Aiming to reduce this workload, we tested the hypothesis that fortnightly trapping is as effective as weekly trapping across seasons and ecologically distinct systems in Darwin. We applied cross‐sectional negative binomial mixed effects models, which adjusted for rain and calendar month, to existing historical data. Culex annulirostris peaks were effectively identified using fortnightly trapping across all three ecological systems, during wet/dry and build‐up seasonal patterns. For Aedes vigilax, fortnightly trapping was adequate in identifying peaks during wet and dry season months, but inadequate during build‐up months across all three ecological systems. Therefore, weekly trapping should continue during build‐up months, but trapping could be reduced to fortnightly for wet and dry season months for all ecological systems. Trapping for Cx. annulirostris monitoring could be reduced to fortnightly in all areas and seasons. Evaluation of programs can maximize staff efficiency and improve service delivery by reducing the need for unnecessary tasks.     

Towards a resource‐based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector‐borne disease risks

Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector‐borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical–statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource‐based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector‐borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge‐transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches.     

Simulation model of soil compaction and root growth

Soil compaction is a widespread cause of reduced plant productivity. If the effects of soil compaction on plant growth are to be reproduced in simulation models, then the processes through which compaction reduces root elongation must be expressed mathematically and then tested against experimental data. The mathematical theory by which these processes may be represented is given in the accompanying article. In this article, the behavior of a simulation model based on this theory is tested against data for root growth and soil gas concentration recorded from soil columns of which the middle layers were compacted to different bulk densities. The model was able to reproduce the failure of the root system to penetrate the compacted middle layer within the period of the experiment when bulk density exceeded 1.55 Mg m^-3. The model also reproduced decreases in O₂ concentrations, and increases in CO₂ concentrations, in the atmospheres of the compacted layer and of the uncompacted layer below it as bulk density of the compacted layer increased. The simulated time course of O₂ and nutrient uptake and of O₂ concentrations in the compacted layer at different depths is presented and its consistency with experimental findings is examined. As part of a larger ecosystem model, this model will be useful in estimating site-specific effects of soil compaction on carbon cycling in agroecosystems.     

An integrated approach for environmental assessments

LCA is a system-wide assessment, and the LCIA phase is confronted with the difficulties of local and regional effects in a number of impact categories. We integrate three different environmental techniques to demonstrate how these effects can be addressed in an environmental assessment. The techniques are life cycle inventory, environmental fate models, and an ecological impact assessment using fuzzy expert systems. Results of the LCI are mass and energy flows. In the environmental fate modelling step these mass flows are transformed into concentration and immission values by dispersion-reaction models. A generalised fuzzy expert system for the environmental mechanisms compares calculated exposure with site specific buffering capacities and formulates a generalised dose-response relationship. This generalised fuzzy expert system is used as a template for the assessment of local and regional environmental impacts. An application of this integrated approach is shown for a practical problem: production of magnesium car components. The environmental fate of nitrogen oxides which are released due to the major combustion source within that production system is simulated. Fuzzy expert models for crop damage, soil acidification and eutrophication determine the possible environmental impact of the immited nitrogen oxides. The important methodological extension of this integrated approach is a regionalised impact assessment depending on the spatial distribution of environmental characteristics.     

Induced pluripotent stem cells for modelling human diseases

Research into the pathophysiological mechanisms of human disease and the development of targeted therapies have been hindered by a lack of predictive disease models that can be experimentally manipulated in vitro. This review describes the current state of modelling human diseases with the use of human induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cell lines. To date, a variety of neurodegenerative diseases, haematopoietic disorders, metabolic conditions and cardiovascular pathologies have been captured in a Petri dish through reprogramming of patient cells into iPS cells followed by directed differentiation of disease-relevant cells and tissues. However, realizing the true promise of iPS cells for advancing our basic understanding of disease and ultimately providing novel cell-based therapies will require more refined protocols for generating the highly specialized cells affected by disease, coupled with strategies for drug discovery and cell transplantation.     

Biogeography meets conservation: the genetic structure of the endangered lycaenid butterfly Lycaena helle (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775)

Cold‐adapted species are thought to have had their largest distribution ranges in central Europe during the glacial periods. Postglacial warming caused severe range shifts of such taxa into higher latitudes and altitudes. We selected the boreomontane butterfly Lycaena helle (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775) as an example to demonstrate the genetic effects of range changes, and to document the recent status of highly fragmented remnant populations. We analysed five polymorphic microsatellite loci in 1059 individuals sampled at 50 different localities scattered over the European distribution area of the species. Genetic differentiation was strong among the mountain ranges of western Europe, but we did not detect similarly distinct genetic groups following a geographical pattern in the more eastern areas. The Fennoscandian populations form a separate genetic group, and provide evidence for a colonization from southern Finland via northern Scandinavia to south‐central Sweden. Species distribution modelling suggests a large extension of the spatial distribution during the last glacial maximum, but highlights strong retractions to a few mountain areas under current conditions. These findings, combined with our genetic data, suggest a more or less continuous distribution of L. helle throughout central Europe at the end of the last ice age. As a consequence of postglacial warming, the species retreated northwards to Fennoscandia and escaped increasing temperatures through altitudinal shifts. Therefore, the species is today restricted to population remnants located at the mountain tops of western Europe, genetically isolated from each other, and evolved into genetically unique entities. Rising temperatures and advancing habitat destruction threaten this wealth of biodiversity. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 101 , 155–168.     

Disease spread in age structured populations with maternal age effects

Fundamental ecological processes, such as extrinsic mortality, determine population age structure. This influences disease spread when individuals of different ages differ in susceptibility or when maternal age determines offspring susceptibility. We show that Daphnia magna offspring born to young mothers are more susceptible than those born to older mothers, and consider this alongside previous observations that susceptibility declines with age in this system. We used a susceptible‐infected compartmental model to investigate how age‐specific susceptibility and maternal age effects on offspring susceptibility interact with demographic factors affecting disease spread. Our results show a scenario where an increase in extrinsic mortality drives an increase in transmission potential. Thus, we identify a realistic context in which age effects and maternal effects produce conditions favouring disease transmission.