Effects of temperature and rainfall on date of release of ascospores of Leptosphaeria maculans (phoma stem canker) from winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) debris in the UK

Data from a controlled environment experiment investigating effects of temperature on maturation of Leptosphaeria maculans pseudothecia were used to derive equations describing the times until 30% or 50% of pseudothecia were mature as a function of temperature. A wetness sensor was developed to estimate the oilseed rape debris wetness and operated with debris exposed in natural conditions in 2000 and 2001. The maturation of L. maculans pseudothecia on debris and concentrations of airborne L. maculans ascospores were observed from 1999 to 2004. There were considerable differences between years, with the first mature pseudothecia observed in September in most years. There were linear relationships between the first date when 10% of maximum ascospore release was observed and the dates when 30% or 50% of pseudothecia were mature. By summing the daily temperature‐dependent rate of pseudothecial maturation for days after 1 August with rainfall >0.5 mm, the dates when 30% or 50% of pseudothecia were mature were predicted. There was good agreement between predicted and observed dates when 30% or 50% of pseudothecia were mature. These equations for predicting the timing of L. maculans ascospore release could be incorporated into schemes for forecasting, in autumn, the severity of phoma stem canker epidemics in the following spring/summer in the UK.     

Opportunities for behavioral rescue under rapid environmental change

Laboratory measurements of physiological and demographic tolerances are important in understanding the impact of climate change on species diversity; however, it has been recognized that forecasts based solely on these laboratory estimates overestimate risk by omitting the capacity for species to utilize microclimatic variation via behavioral adjustments in activity patterns or habitat choice. The complex, and often context‐dependent nature, of microclimate utilization has been an impediment to the advancement of general predictive models. Here, we overcome this impediment and estimate the potential impact of warming on the fitness of ectotherms using a benefit/cost trade‐off derived from the simple and broadly documented thermal performance curve and a generalized cost function. Our framework reveals that, for certain environments, the cost of behavioral thermoregulation can be reduced as warming occurs, enabling behavioral buffering (e.g., the capacity for behavior to ameliorate detrimental impacts) and “behavioral rescue” from extinction in extreme cases. By applying our framework to operative temperature and physiological data collected at an extremely fine spatial scale in an African lizard, we show that new behavioral opportunities may emerge. Finally, we explore large‐scale geographic differences in the impact of behavior on climate‐impact projections using a global dataset of 38 insect species. These multiple lines of inference indicate that understanding the existing relationship between thermal characteristics (e.g., spatial configuration, spatial heterogeneity, and modal temperature) is essential for improving estimates of extinction risk.     

基于文本挖掘的城市园林绿化信息化管理的需求分析方法

利用信息化的手段辅助园林绿化管理的日常工作能够大幅提高管理效率和管理的精准化水平。准确、充分和前沿的用户需求分析,是建立城市园林绿化信息化管理系统和平台顶层架构、功能组成、模块设计等的基础。但由于信息化建设和园林绿化行业管理在专业上存在偏差,使得信息化的需求分析和行业的预测工作沟通壁垒较高。结合大数据的特点,提出一套充分结合用户使用评价、网络新闻、会议记录等文本型大数据,利用文本挖掘方法进行城市园林绿化信息化管理的需求分析和预测的科学方法。分析了三类文本挖掘得出的高频词特点,结合前期对城市园林绿化信息化行业的实际调研,得出了当前中国园林绿化的管理目标在层级转变,办公自动化、物联网感知等前端管理逐步突显的需求特点,为推动园林绿化行业信息化工作提出了建设方向。     

Temperature effects on reproduction and adult lifespan of the smaller fruit tortrix,Grapholita lobarzewskii

The effects of temperature on adult lifespan, reproduction, and oviposition behaviour of Grapholita lobarzewskii Nowicki (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) were studied under controlled and semi‐field conditions to improve the basis for phenological forecasting. The average female lifespan ranged from 18.9 days at 25.1 °C to 65.3 days at 11.0 °C. For adult female ageing, a lower thermal threshold (THR) of 8.6 °C and a thermal constant (K) of 298 degree days (dd) were established. At constant temperatures, fecundity ranged from 0.3 eggs per female at 11.0 °C to 107 eggs per female at 21.2 °C. The highest fecundity of 127 eggs per female was observed at fluctuating temperatures. Oviposition lasted on average 350 dd, but 50% of the eggs were laid within the first 100 dd after adult emergence. Grapholita lobarzewskii had a distinct circadian rhythm for oviposition. Females began to lay eggs at ca. 16:00 hours and ceased at 24:00 hours with the peak occurring generally at 19:00 hours. Females reacted very sensitively to sudden temperature changes. A temperature drop of 3.1 °C could cause a 1‐day interruption of oviposition.     

Life history perspectives on pest insects: What’s the use?

In his seminal 1954 paper on the ‘population consequences of life history phenomena’, Cole noted that ‘these computations may have practical value in dealing with valuable or noxious species’. In the present paper, the question is asked: ‘is research based on evolutionary perspectives in general, and life history theory specifically, really useful for dealing with insect pests?’ Perhaps such theory‐based research is rather a luxury: time and resources would be better spent on entirely applied aspects of the problem. The conclusion of the present discussion is that having an evolutionary perspective guiding research is actually a very cost‐effective way of dealing with applied problems, as it provides a clear basis for interpretations, generalizations and predictions. Life history theory is a very central and necessary part of both population ecology and general evolutionary theory, and its specific usefulness in pest forecasting and management are discussed. Nevertheless, our ability to predict insect population dynamics is still limited, and so is our ability to make use of an insect’s life history traits to predict its propensity to become a pest. I suggest that the former shortcoming is largely due to poor understanding of insect life history plasticity. This, in turn, may partly be due to a paucity of studies where reaction norms are investigated as putative adaptations. I suggest that the latter shortcoming is due to problems inherent with studying life history traits as adaptations, for example the lack of an independent fitness model and the fact that life histories tend to form syndromes of coadapted traits. These points are illustrated with examples from my own work on non‐pest butterflies and from insect–Eucalyptus systems.     

Simple Incorporation of Interactions into Additive Models

Often, the functional form of covariate effects in an additive model varies across groups defined by levels of a categorical variable. This structure represents a factor-by-curve interaction. This article presents penalized spline models that incorporate factor-by-curve interactions into additive models. A mixed model formulation for penalized splines allows for straightforward model fitting and smoothing parameter selection. We illustrate the proposed model by applying it to pollen ragweed data in which seasonal trends vary by year.     

能源预测预警理论与方法研究进展

能源作为一种稀缺性的战略资源是国民经济增长和社会进步的物质基础,但是随着化石能源耗竭及能源使用造成的环境问题日趋严重,能源安全问题逐渐成为关注的焦点,而能源预测预警也成为能源系统科学领域的新兴学科,其内容包含能源安全理论、基于模型的能源供需预测和基于安全评价指标体系的能源预警等方面内容。通过系统回顾能源安全的理论及其演变的历程,重点综述了自上而下、自下而上和混合建模3种建模思路的能源预测模型,探讨了三类模型的优点和局限性,并根据能源安全预警评价指标浓缩信息的程度,将现有预警评价体系划分单个型指标评价体系和聚合型指标评价体系两大类。通过对以上研究内容的总结分析,明确了当前能源预测预警研究各领域的研究进展,及其在理论和应用方面的优势与不足。在未来研究中,建议从供应链的角度出发,考虑能源系统内部各因素及与外部因素的相互作用,构建基于链式的预警体系,以有效弥补现有研究中的不足。     

西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地环境因子分析及其对资源丰度的影响

柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)是西北太平洋海域重要的经济头足类,短生命周期的生活史特征决定其资源丰度易受海洋环境变化影响。根据1998—2010年我国鱿钓船生产统计资料和环境资料,包括海表温度(SST)和叶绿素浓度(Chl-a)数据,结合Nio 3.4区海表温距平值(SSTA),分析了SST和Chl-a浓度的季节和年际变化特征,并分别探讨了SST和Chl-a浓度距平值与Nio 3.4区SSTA及柔鱼资源丰度之间的关系。结果表明,产卵场海域Chl-a浓度冬季高夏季低,SST则夏季高冬季低;育肥场Chl-a和SST均呈夏季高冬季低变化,但6—12月份Chl-a浓度波动明显。产卵场和育肥场SST及Chl-a浓度年际变化明显。同时研究发现,厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜和正常年份时Nio 3.4区SSTA对柔鱼产卵场和育肥场环境的调控机制不同:拉尼娜和正常年份产卵场和育肥场温度上升,叶绿素浓度变化幅度小,有利于资源量补充,产量较高;厄尔尼诺年份温度和叶绿素均降低,尤其育肥场叶绿素浓度,对资源量产生不利影响,产量锐减。研究利用多元线性回归分别建立了基于温度和叶绿素的柔鱼资源丰度的预测模型,两者均能很好的预测柔鱼资源丰度(P0.05),但基于叶绿素的预测模型优于温度模型。     

草地螟(Loxostege sticticalis)周期性大发生与太阳黑子活动的相关性

草地螟Loxostege sticticalis L．是一种周期性大发生的农作物主要害虫,自新中国成立后已经3次大规模暴发成灾,但关于草地螟周期性大发生的原因还未见报道。利用国际通用的太阳黑子活动数据和我国草地螟大发生的历史记载进行相关性和相位分析的结果表明,我国草地螟大发生的周期性与对应的太阳黑子活动的奇数周期相关联。建国以来的3个大发生周期分别与对应的太阳黑子活动的第19、21周和第23周期在时间序列上表现出极高的同步性,尽管草地螟的发生为害程度与太阳黑子的活动强度之间相关性并不显著。根据这些结果,并结合太阳黑子活动周期的预测,草地螟在我国的第4个大发生周期很有可能开始于2017～2020年之间,并在2024—2025年间达到高峰。