闽北地区四代三化螟发生动态Fuzzy预测模型研究

根据Fuzzy数学原理和三化螟生物学特性,组建了四代三化螟发生动态综合预测模型经对福建省将乐县16年四代三化螟发生期、发生量回报及1995年的预报,拟合率及正确率均达100％。     

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. ( Ecology Letters , 10 , 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.     

The algorithmic anatomy of model-based evaluation

Despite many debates in the first half of the twentieth century, it is now largely a truism that humans and other animals build models of their environments and use them for prediction and control. However, model-based (MB) reasoning presents severe computational challenges. Alternative, computationally simpler, model-free (MF) schemes have been suggested in the reinforcement learning literature, and have afforded influential accounts of behavioural and neural data. Here, we study the realization of MB calculations, and the ways that this might be woven together with MF values and evaluation methods. There are as yet mostly only hints in the literature as to the resulting tapestry, so we offer more preview than review.     

The effects of climate change on a mega‐diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador

Ecuador has some of the greatest biodiversity in the world, sheltering global biodiversity hotspots in lowland and mountain regions. Climate change will likely have a major effect on these regions, but the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation remain unclear. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of eight species distribution models to predict future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover for 201 mammals. We projected the distributions using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon and contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no dispersal vs. full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, our results predicted that the current diversity of mammals in Ecuador would decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predicted major changes in the distribution of mammalian species diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas, compared with other mammals. Our work emphasizes the need for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to mitigate the effects of climate change     

芽胞气溶胶表面滞留抗力预测模型研究

针对生物威胁的现场处置工作,建立气溶胶芽胞表面滞留抗力的智能预测模型,以准确预测环境表面芽胞污染状况,为大规模的现场洗消任务提供重要依据,有利于实现及时反应、恰当反应和准确防护的目标。以枯草杆菌芽胞为试验菌,在气溶胶实验室进行芽胞的环境因素暴露及活力测定,以模拟环境中芽胞抗力变化规律数据为依据,采用Matlab6.1软件包中的神经网络工具箱进行抗力预测模型研究。根据研究目的、模拟环境条件和数据训练的平滑曲线等特征,设定了5个输入神经元,8个隐层节点和1个输出神经元。‘tansig’、‘purelin’为传递函数,trainlm为训练函数,网络迭代100次。模型回顾预测效率达到100%,前瞻预测效率达到91%。以实验室数据为依据,利用Matlab平台中的BP神经网络建立的芽胞气溶胶表面滞留抗力预测模型能利用环境因素信息有效预测芽胞抗力。     

厌氧消化过程的非模型控制

对废水淤泥的厌氧消化处理过程进行了研究．提出了一种基于神经网络的非模型控制方法。多变量控制系统的操作变量为供热量和进水量．被控变量为消化温度和消化污泥排出浓度。证明了控制算法的收敛性。讨论了控制系统的稳定性。仿真结果证实了非模型控制方法的有效性。该方法无需对象的模型．为复杂生化过程的控制提供了一种新途径。     

性诱剂在蔬菜害虫测报上的应用

小菜蛾、斜纹夜蛾、甜菜夜蛾是松阳县蔬菜上的主要害虫。作者于 2 0 0 2年将性诱剂应用在蔬菜害虫测报上 ,结果表明 ,该测报方法具有准确度高、省工、省时等优点。     

白背飞虱种群动态关联分析及预测模型的研究

根据灰色系统关联分析的基本原理,提出了白背飞虱种群动态的加权关联度预测法。衢县早稻后期白背飞虱发生量与历年6月25～30日平均百丛虫量X_1（t）、同期若虫比例X_2（t）、迟熟品种比例X_3（t）、6月下旬水分积分指数X_4（t）和平均气温X_5（t）等因素的关联序为：X_2（t）＞X_1（t）＞X_3（t）＞X_5（t）＞X_4（t）。据此建立的加权关联度预测模型,经12年资料回测和试报验证,结果令人满意。