SIMEX for correction of dietary exposure effects with Box-Cox transformed data

Modelling dietary data, and especially 24-hr dietary recall (24HDR) data, is a challenge. Ignoring the inherent measurement error (ME) leads to biased effect estimates when the association between an exposure and an outcome is investigated. We propose an adapted simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) algorithm for modelling dietary exposures. For this purpose, we exploit the ME model of the NCI method where we assume the assumption of normally distributed errors of the reported intake on the Box-Cox transformed scale and of unbiased recalls on the original scale. According to the SIMEX algorithm, remeasurements of the observed data with additional ME are generated in order to estimate the association between the level of ME and the resulting effect estimate. Subsequently, this association is extrapolated to the case of zero ME to obtain the corrected estimate. We show that the proposed method fulfils the key property of the SIMEX approach, that is, that the MSE of the generated data will converge to zero if the ME variance converges to zero. Furthermore, the method is applied to real 24HDR data of the I.Family study to correct the effects of salt and alcohol intake on blood pressure. In a simulation study, the method is compared with the NCI method resulting in effect estimates with either smaller MSE or smaller bias in certain situations. In addition, we found our method to be more informative and easier to implement. Therefore, we conclude that the proposed method is useful to promote the dissemination of ME correction methods in nutritional epidemiology.     

Comparison of complex modeling strategies for prediction of a binary outcome based on a few,highly correlated predictors

Motivated by a clinical prediction problem, a simulation study was performed to compare different approaches for building risk prediction models. Robust prediction models for hospital survival in patients with acute heart failure were to be derived from three highly correlated blood parameters measured up to four times, with predictive ability having explicit priority over interpretability. Methods that relied only on the original predictors were compared with methods using an expanded predictor space including transformations and interactions. Predictors were simulated as transformations and combinations of multivariate normal variables which were fitted to the partly skewed and bimodally distributed original data in such a way that the simulated data mimicked the original covariate structure. Different penalized versions of logistic regression as well as random forests and generalized additive models were investigated using classical logistic regression as a benchmark. Their performance was assessed based on measures of predictive accuracy, model discrimination, and model calibration. Three different scenarios using different subsets of the original data with different numbers of observations and events per variable were investigated. In the investigated setting, where a risk prediction model should be based on a small set of highly correlated and interconnected predictors, Elastic Net and also Ridge logistic regression showed good performance compared to their competitors, while other methods did not lead to substantial improvements or even performed worse than standard logistic regression. Our work demonstrates how simulation studies that mimic relevant features of a specific data set can support the choice of a good modeling strategy.     

Sample size recalculation in multicenter randomized controlled clinical trials based on noncomparative data

Many late-phase clinical trials recruit subjects at multiple study sites. This introduces a hierarchical structure into the data that can result in a power-loss compared to a more homogeneous single-center trial. Building on a recently proposed approach to sample size determination, we suggest a sample size recalculation procedure for multicenter trials with continuous endpoints. The procedure estimates nuisance parameters at interim from noncomparative data and recalculates the sample size required based on these estimates. In contrast to other sample size calculation methods for multicenter trials, our approach assumes a mixed effects model and does not rely on balanced data within centers. It is therefore advantageous, especially for sample size recalculation at interim. We illustrate the proposed methodology by a study evaluating a diabetes management system. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to evaluate operation characteristics of the sample size recalculation procedure using comparative as well as noncomparative data, assessing their dependence on parameters such as between-center heterogeneity, residual variance of observations, treatment effect size and number of centers. We compare two different estimators for between-center heterogeneity, an unadjusted and a bias-adjusted estimator, both based on quadratic forms. The type 1 error probability as well as statistical power are close to their nominal levels for all parameter combinations considered in our simulation study for the proposed unadjusted estimator, whereas the adjusted estimator exhibits some type 1 error rate inflation. Overall, the sample size recalculation procedure can be recommended to mitigate risks arising from misspecified nuisance parameters at the planning stage.     

C1188D mutation abolishes specific recognition between MLL1-CXXC domain and CpG site by inducing conformational switch of flexible N-terminal

Mixed lineage leukemia protein (MLL1 protein) recognizes the CpG site via its CXXC domain and is frequently associated with leukemia. The specific recognition is abolished by C1188D mutation, which also prevents MLL-related leukemia. In this paper, multiple molecular dynamic (MD) simulations were performed to investigate the mechanism of recognition and influences of C1188D mutation. Started from fully dissociated DNA and MLL1-CXXC domain, remarkably, the center of mass (COM) of MLL1-CXXC domain quickly concentrates on the vicinity of the CpG site in all 53 short MD simulations. Extended simulations of the wild type showed that the native complex formed in 500 ns among 4 of 53 simulations. In contrast, the C1188D mutant COM distributed broadly around the DNA and the native complex was not observed in any of the extended simulations. Simulations on the apo MLL1-CXXC domain further suggest that the wild type protein remained predominantly in an open form that closely resembles its structure in the native complex whereas C1188D mutant formed predominantly compact structures in which the N- terminal bends to D1188. This conformational switch hinders the formation of encounter complex, thus abolishes the recognition. Our study also provides clues to the study mechanism of recognition, by the CXXC domain from proteins like DNA methyltransferase and ten-eleven translocation enzymes.     

Noninvasive tool for optical online monitoring of individual biomass concentrations in a defined coculture

Cocultures bear great potential in the conversion of complex substrates and process intensification, as well as, in the formation of unique components only available due to inter-species interactions. Dynamic data of coculture composition is necessary for understanding and optimizing coculture systems. However, most standard online determined parameters measure the sum of all species in the reactor system. The kinetic behavior of the individual species remains unknown. Up to now, different offline methods are available to determine the culture composition, as well as the online measurement of fluorescence of genetically modified organisms. To avoid any genetic modification, a noninvasive online monitoring tool based on the scattered light spectrum was developed for microtiter plate cultivations. To demonstrate the potential, a coculture consisting of the bacterium Lactococcus lactis and the yeast Kluyveromyces marxianus was cultivated. Via partial least squares regression of scattered light spectra, the online determination of the individual biomass concentrations without further sampling and analyses is possible. The results were successfully validated by a Coulter counter-analysis, taking advantage of the different cell sizes of both organisms. The findings prove the applicability of the new method to follow in detail the dynamics of a coculture.     

Liana communities exhibit different species composition,diversity and community structure across forest types in the Congo Basin

Lianas are poorly characterized for central African forests. We quantify variation in liana composition, diversity and community structure in different forest types in the Yangambi Man and Biosphere Reserve, Democratic Republic of Congo. These attributes of liana assemblages were examined in 12 1-ha plots, randomly demarcated within regrowth forest, old growth monodominant forest, old growth mixed forest and old growth edge forest. Using a combination of multivariate and univariate community analyses, we visualize the patterns of these liana assemblage attributes and/or test for their significant differences across forest types. The combined 12 1-ha area contains 2,638 lianas (≥2 cm diameter) representing 105 species, 49 genera and 22 families. Liana species composition differed significantly across forest types. Taxonomic diversity was higher in old growth mixed forests compared to old growth monodominant and regrowth forests. Trait diversity was higher than expected in the regrowth forest as opposed to the rest of forest types. Similarly, the regrowth forest differed from the rest of forest types in the pattern of liana species ecological traits and diameter frequency distribution. The regrowth forest was also less densely populated in lianas and had lower liana total basal area than the rest of forest types. We speculate that the mechanism of liana competitive exclusion by dominant tree species is mainly responsible for the lower liana species diversity in monodominant compared to mixed forests. We attribute variation in liana community structure between regrowth and old growth forests mostly to short development time of size hierarchies.     

Alternative pathways of liana communities in the forests of northwestern Argentina

Liana dynamics in secondary and mature forests are well known in tropical areas dominated by native tree species. Outside the tropics and in secondary forests invaded by exotic species, knowledge is scarce. In this study, we compare liana communities between secondary and mature forests dominated by native species in a subtropical montane area of Sierra de San Javier, Tucuman, Argentina. Additionally, we evaluate changes of liana communities in secondary forests with increasing densities of Ligustrum lucidum and Morus alba, two of the most invasive exotic trees of the area. We surveyed liana species richness and density in three 30-year secondary patches, four 60-year secondary patches, and four mature patches dominated by native tree species, to analyze changes in liana communities with forest age. Within each patch, we sampled 10–25 20 × 20 m quadrats. Additionally, we surveyed liana density and species richness in secondary forest patches with different densities of L. lucidum and M. alba. In native-dominated forests, liana species richness increased and showed a tendency of increasing basal area from 30-year secondary forests to mature forests. Liana density was highly variable, and most of the species were shared between native-dominated secondary and mature forests. Liana density and species richness decreased with L. lucidum density, whereas in secondary forests highly dominated by M. alba, lianas increased in density. Overall, lianas followed different pathways influenced by native forest succession and exotic tree invasions.     

Continental estimates of forest cover and forest cover changes in the dry ecosystems of Africa between 1990 and 2000

Aim

This study provides regional estimates of forest cover in dry African ecoregions and the changes in forest cover that occurred there between 1990 and 2000, using a systematic sample of medium‐resolution satellite imagery which was processed consistently across the continent.

Location

The study area corresponds to the dry forests and woodlands of Africa between the humid forests and the semi‐arid regions. This area covers the Sudanian and Zambezian ecoregions.

Methods

A systematic sample of 1600 Landsat satellite imagery subsets, each 20 km × 20 km in size, were analysed for two reference years: 1990 and 2000. At each sample site and for both years, dense tree cover, open tree cover, other wooded land and other vegetation cover were identified from the analysis of satellite imagery, which comprised multidate segmentation and automatic classification steps followed by visual control by national forestry experts.

Results

Land cover and land‐cover changes were estimated at continental and ecoregion scales and compared with existing pan‐continental, regional and local studies. The overall accuracy of our land‐cover maps was estimated at 87%. Between 1990 and 2000, 3.3 million hectares (Mha) of dense tree cover, 5.8 Mha of open tree cover and 8.9 Mha of other wooded land were lost, with a further 3.9 Mha degraded from dense to open tree cover. These results are substantially lower than the 34 Mha of forest loss reported in the FAO's 2010 Global Forest Resources Assessment for the same period and area.

Main conclusions

Our method generates the first consistent and robust estimates of forest cover and change in dry Africa with known statistical precision at continental and ecoregion scales. These results reduce the uncertainty regarding vegetation cover and its dynamics in these previously poorly studied ecosystems and provide crucial information for both science and environmental policies.     

Morphologic and Genetic Evidence for Mixed Infection with Two Myxobolus Species (Myxozoa: Myxobolidae) in Gray Mullets,Mugil cephalus,from Korean Waters

The present study was performed to trace the decisive evidence for mixed infection of 2 Myxobolus species, M. episquamalis and Myxobolus sp., in the gray mullet, Mugil cephalus, from Korean waters. Mullets with whitish cyst-like plasmodia on their scales were collected near a sewage plant in Yeosu, southern part of Korea, in 2009. The cysts were mainly located on scales and also found in the intestine. The spores from scales were oval in a frontal view, tapering anteriorly to a blunt apex, and measured 7.2 µm (5.8-8.0) in length and 5.3 µm (4.7-6.1) in width. Two polar capsules were pyriform and extended over the anterior half of the spore, measuring 3.5 µm (2.3-4.8) in length and 2.0 µm (1.5-2.2) in width. In contrast, the spores from the intestine were ellipsoidal, 10.4 µm (9.0-11.9) in length and 8.4 µm (7.3-10.1) in width. The polar capsules were pyriform but did not extend over the anterior half of the spore, 3.7 µm (2.5-4.5) in length and 2.2 µm (1.8-2.9) in width. The nucleotide sequences of the 18S rDNA gene of the 2 myxosporean spores from scales and intestine showed 88.1% identity to each other and 100% identity with M. episquamalis and 94.5% identity with M. spinacurvatura from mullet, respectively. By the above findings, it is first confirmed that mullets from the Korean water are infected with 2 myxosporean species, M. episquamalis and Myxobolus sp.     

Diversity and diversification of Eumolpinae (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in New Caledonia

Contemporary taxonomic work on New Caledonian Eumolpinae (Chrysomelidae) has revealed their high species richness in this Western Pacific biodiversity hotspot. To estimate total species richness in this community, we used rapid DNA‐based biodiversity assessment tools, exploring mtDNA diversity and phylogenetic structure in a sample of 840 specimens across the main island. Concordance of morphospecies delimitation with units delimited by phenetic and phylogenetic algorithms revealed some 98–110 species in our sample, twice as many as currently described. Sample‐based rarefaction curves and species estimators using these species counts doubled this figure (up to 210 species), a realistic estimate considering taxonomic coverage, local endemism, and characteristics of sampling design, amongst others. New Caledonia, compared with larger tropical islands, stands out as a hotspot for Eumolpinae biodiversity. Molecular dating using either chrysomelid specific rates or tree calibration using palaeogeographical data dated the root of the ingroup tree (not necessarily a monophyletic radiation) at 38.5 Mya, implying colonizations after the Cretaceous breakage of Gondwana. Our data are compatible with the slowdown in diversification rates through time and are also consistent with recent faunal origins, possibly reflecting niche occupancy after an initial rapid diversification. Environmental factors (e.g. soil characteristics) seemingly played a role in this diversification process. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London