Calibration for nonlinear mixed effects models: an application to the withdrawal time prediction

We propose calibration methods for nonlinear mixed effects models. Using an estimator whose asymptotic properties are known, four different statistics are used to perform the calibration. Simulations are carried out to compare the performance of these statistics. Finally, the milk discard time prediction of an antibiotic, which has motivated this study, is performed on real data.     

Patterns of parapatric speciation

Abstract. Geographic variation may ultimately lead to the splitting of a subdivided population into reproductively isolated units in spite of migration. Here, we consider how the waiting time until the first split and its location depend on different evolutionary factors including mutation, migration, random genetic drift, genetic architecture, and the geometric structure of the habitat. We perform large-scale, individual-based simulations using a simple model of reproductive isolation based on a classical view that reproductive isolation evolves as a by-product of genetic divergence. We show that rapid parapatric speciation on the time scale of a few hundred to a few thousand generations is plausible even when neighboring subpopulations exchange several individuals each generation. Divergent selection for local adaptation is not required for rapid speciation. Our results substantiates the claims that species with smaller range sizes (which are characterized by smaller local densities and reduced dispersal ability) should have higher speciation rates. If mutation rate is small, local abundances are low, or substantial genetic changes are required for reproductive isolation, then central populations should be the place where most splits take place. With high mutation rates, high local densities, or with moderate genetic changes sufficient for reproductive isolation, speciation events are expected to involve mainly peripheral populations.     

Conformationally constrained opioid peptide analogs with novel activity profiles

Novel conformationally constrained opioid peptide analogs with antagonist, mixed agonist/ antagonist or agonist properties were developed. TIP(P)-related antagonists showed unprecedented antagonist potency and receptor selectivity, and may have potential for use in analgesia in combination with agonists. A definitive model of their receptor-bound conformation was developed. Three prototype mixed agonist/ antagonists were discovered. They represent the only known compounds with this pharmacological profile and, as expected, one of them was shown to be a potent analgesic and to produce no dependence and less tolerance than morphine. Novel dipeptide derivatives turned out to be potent and selective agonists. Because of their low molecular weight and lipophilic character, these compounds may cross the blood-brain barrier and, thus, may have potential as centrally acting analgesics.     

Simultaneous utilization of glucose and D-xylose by Candida shehatae in a chemostat

The kinetics of biomass formation, D-xylose utilization, and mixed substrate utilization were determined in a chemostat using the yeast Candida shehatae. The maximum growth rate of C. shehatae grown aerobically on D-xylose was 0.42 h⁻¹ and the Monod constant, K _s, was 0.06 g L⁻¹. The biomass yield, Y _{X/S}, ranged from 0.40 to 0.50 g g⁻¹ over a dilution rate range of 0.2–0.3 h⁻¹, when C. shehatae was grown on pure D-xylose. Mixtures of D-xylose and glucose (∼1 : 1) were simultaneously utilized over a dilution rate from 0.15 to 0.35 h⁻¹ at pH 3.5 and 4.5, but pH 3.5 reduced μ_max and reduced the dilution rate range over which D-xylose was utilized in the presence of glucose. At pH 4.5, μ_max was not reduced with the mixed sugar feed and the overall or lumped K _s value was not significantly increased (0.058 g L⁻¹ vs 0.06 g L⁻¹), when compared to a pure D-xylose feed. Kinetic data indicate that C. shehatae is an excellent candidate for chemostat production of value added products from renewable carbon sources, since simultaneous mixed substrate utilization was observed over a wide range of growth rates on a 1 : 1 mixture of glucose and D-xylose. Received 21 August 1997/ Accepted in revised form 28 May 1998     

On the Evolution of Behavioral Heterogeneity in Individuals and Populations

A wide range of ecological and evolutionary models predict variety in phenotype or behavior when a population is at equilibrium. This heterogeneity can be realized in different ways. For example, it can be realized through a complex population of individuals exhibiting different simple behaviors, or through a simple population of individuals exhibiting complex, varying behaviors. In some theoretical frameworks these different realizations are treated as equivalent, but natural selection distinguishes between these two alternatives in subtle ways. By investigating an increasingly complex series of models, from a simple fluctuating selection model up to a finite population hawk/dove game, we explore the selective pressures which discriminate between pure strategists, mixed at the population level, and individual mixed strategists. Our analysis reveals some important limitations to the ESS framework often employed to investigate the evolution of complex behavior.     

Comparison of Linear,Nonlinear and Semiparametric Mixed‐effects Models for Estimating HIV Dynamic Parameters

The potency of antiretroviral agents in AIDS clinical trials can be assessed on the basis of an early viral response such as viral decay rate or change in viral load (number of copies of HIV RNA) of the plasma. Linear, parametric nonlinear, and semiparametric nonlinear mixed‐effects models have been proposed to estimate viral decay rates in viral dynamic models. However, before applying these models to clinical data, a critical question that remains to be addressed is whether these models produce coherent estimates of viral decay rates, and if not, which model is appropriate and should be used in practice. In this paper, we applied these models to data from an AIDS clinical trial of potent antiviral treatments and found significant incongruity in the estimated rates of reduction in viral load. Simulation studies indicated that reliable estimates of viral decay rate were obtained by using the parametric and semiparametric nonlinear mixed‐effects models. Our analysis also indicated that the decay rates estimated by using linear mixed‐effects models should be interpreted differently from those estimated by using nonlinear mixed‐effects models. The semiparametric nonlinear mixed‐effects model is preferred to other models because arbitrary data truncation is not needed. Based on real data analysis and simulation studies, we provide guidelines for estimating viral decay rates from clinical data. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A growth‐rate composition formula for the growth of E. coli on co‐utilized carbon substrates

When bacteria are cultured in medium with multiple carbon substrates, they frequently consume these substrates simultaneously. Building on recent advances in the understanding of metabolic coordination exhibited by Escherichia coli cells through cAMP‐Crp signaling, we show that this signaling system responds to the total carbon‐uptake flux when substrates are co‐utilized and derive a mathematical formula that accurately predicts the resulting growth rate, based only on the growth rates on individual substrates.     

Soil nutrient budgets following projected corn stover harvest for biofuel production in the conterminous United States

Increasing demand for food and biofuel feedstocks may substantially affect soil nutrient budgets, especially in the United States where there is great potential for corn (Zea mays L) stover as a biofuel feedstock. This study was designed to evaluate impacts of projected stover harvest scenarios on budgets of soil nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) currently and in the future across the conterminous United States. The required and removed N, P, and K amounts under each scenario were estimated on the basis of both their average contents in grain and stover and from an empirical model. Our analyses indicate a small depletion of soil N (?4 ± 35 kg ha^?1) and K (?6 ± 36 kg ha^?1) and a moderate surplus of P (37 ± 21 kg ha^?1) currently on the national average, but with a noticeable variation from state to state. After harvesting both grain and projected stover, the deficits of soil N, P, and K were estimated at 114–127, 26–27, and 36–53 kg ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, in 2006–2010; 131–173, 29–32, and 41–96 kg ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, in 2020; and 161–207, 35–39, and 51–111 kg ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, in 2050. This study indicates that the harvestable stover amount derived from the minimum stover requirement for maintaining soil organic carbon level scenarios under current fertilization rates can be sustainable for soil nutrient supply and corn production at present, but the deficit of P and K at the national scale would become larger in the future.     

The economics of producing sustainable aviation fuel: a regional case study in Queensland,Australia

The airline industry has a strong interest in developing sustainable aviation fuels, in order to reduce their exposure to increasing oil prices and cost liability for greenhouse gas emissions. The feasibility and cost of producing sustainable biomass‐based jet fuels at a sufficient scale to materially address these issues is an enormous challenge. This paper builds directly on the biophysical study by H.T. Murphy, D.A. O'Connell, R.J. Raison, A.C. Warden, T.H. Booth, A. Herr, A.L. Braid, D.F. Crawford, J.A. Hayward, T. Javonovic, J.G. McIvor, M.H. O'Connor, M.L. Poole, D. Prestwidge, N. Raisbeck‐Brown & L. Rye, In review, which examined a 25 year scale‐up strategy to produce 5% of projected jet fuel demand in Australia in 2020 (470 mL) in the Fitzroy region of Queensland, Australia. The strategy was based on the use of a mixed ligno‐cellulosic biomass feedstock and assumed, for the sake of exploring and quantifying the scenario, a simplified two‐step conversion process – conversion of biomass to crude bio‐oil within the region, and upgrade to jet fuel at a central Brisbane facility. This paper provides details on the costs of production in this scenario, focusing on two different strategies for biomass utilization, and two types of novel small–medium scale conversion technologies. The cost analyses have taken into account technology learning curves, different economies of scale and key cost sensitivities. The cost of biomass‐based jet fuels is estimated to be between 0.70 and 1.90 The airline industry has a strong interest in developing sustainable aviation fuels, in order to reduce their exposure to increasing oil prices and cost liability for greenhouse gas emissions. The feasibility and cost of producing sustainable biomass‐based jet fuels at a sufficient scale to materially address these issues is an enormous challenge. This paper builds directly on the biophysical study by H.T. Murphy, D.A. O'Connell, R.J. Raison, A.C. Warden, T.H. Booth, A. Herr, A.L. Braid, D.F. Crawford, J.A. Hayward, T. Javonovic, J.G. McIvor, M.H. O'Connor, M.L. Poole, D. Prestwidge, N. Raisbeck‐Brown & L. Rye, In review, which examined a 25 year scale‐up strategy to produce 5% of projected jet fuel demand in Australia in 2020 (470 mL) in the Fitzroy region of Queensland, Australia. The strategy was based on the use of a mixed ligno‐cellulosic biomass feedstock and assumed, for the sake of exploring and quantifying the scenario, a simplified two‐step conversion process – conversion of biomass to crude bio‐oil within the region, and upgrade to jet fuel at a central Brisbane facility. This paper provides details on the costs of production in this scenario, focusing on two different strategies for biomass utilization, and two types of novel small–medium scale conversion technologies. The cost analyses have taken into account technology learning curves, different economies of scale and key cost sensitivities. The cost of biomass‐based jet fuels is estimated to be between 0.70 and 1.90 $ L^?1 when the efficiency of conversion of biomass to biocrude and subsequently to aviation fuel is varied by ±10% of published values, with an average value of 1.10 $ L^?1. This is within the range of the projected 2035 conventional jet fuel price of 1.50 $ L^?1. Therefore, biomass‐based jet fuel has the potential to contribute to supply of Australia's jet fuel needs in the future.     

Impact of Phyllostachys heterocycla ‘Pubescens’ expansion on mycorrhizal associations of the adjacent forests

 毛竹(Phyllostachys heterocycla ‘Pubescens’)凭借其独特的生长特性极易扩张进入周边的常绿或针阔混交森林群落并取而代之。菌根减弱假说对毛竹林扩张导致周边林分枯亡并抑制林下幼苗更新的机制进行了解释, 即毛竹林的成功扩张是由于毛竹蔓延引起森林群落的菌根系统紊乱, 使宿主植物与菌根真菌的共生关系受到干扰, 进而影响了宿主植物的分布与更新。该研究以浙江省西天目山国家自然保护区为研究区域, 对菌根减弱假说进行了检验。通过在毛竹-针阔混交林交接区沿毛竹扩张方向设置毛竹纯林、竹-林过渡带、针阔混交林3种类型的样带, 选取在针阔混交林、竹-林过渡带同时存在的6种优势乔灌树种——杉木(Cunninghamia lanceolata)、枫香树(Liquidambar formosana)、青冈(Cyclobalanopsis glauca)、柳杉(Cryptomeria fortunei)、江浙山胡椒(Lindera chienii)、毛柄连蕊茶(Camellia fraterna), 测定这6个树种在两样带中的菌根侵染频率和强度, 检测在毛竹林扩张中周边森林群落菌根的响应, 同时对比了毛竹在毛竹纯林和竹-林过渡带菌根感染率和强度的变化, 检验该假设。实验结果表明: 1)针阔混交林和竹-林过渡带的主要树种菌根都具有较高的菌根侵染频率(> 95%), 且不同林分间林木的侵染频率无显著差异(p > 0.1); 2)在竹-林过渡带杉木和江浙山胡椒的丛枝菌根侵染强度较针阔混交林明显增加(p < 0.1); 3)毛竹的丛枝菌根侵染频率和强度远低于其他针阔树种, 且在扩张前后没有显著变化(p > 0.1)。实验结果否定菌根减弱假说。