Spatial and temporal variations in species occurrence rate affect the accuracy of occurrence models

Aim Predictive models of species occurrence have potential for prioritizing areas for competing land uses. Before widespread application, however, it is necessary to evaluate performance using independent data and effective accuracy measures. The objectives of this study were to (1) compare the effects of species occurrence rate on model accuracy, (2) assess the effects of spatial and temporal variation in occurrence rate on model accuracy, and (3) determine if the number of predictor variables affected model accuracy. Location We predicted the distributions of breeding birds in three adjacent mountain ranges in the Great Basin (Nevada, USA). Methods For each of 18 species, we developed separate models using five different data sets — one set for each of 2 years (to address the effects of temporal variation), and one set for each of three possible pairs of mountain ranges (to address the effects of spatial variation). We evaluated each model with an independent data set using four accuracy measures: discrimination ability [area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)], correct classification rate (CCR), proportion of presences correctly classified (sensitivity), and proportion of absences correctly classified (specificity). Results Discrimination ability was not affected by occurrence rate, whereas the other three accuracy measures were significantly affected. CCR, sensitivity and specificity were affected by species occurrence rate in the evaluation data sets to a greater extent than in the model‐building data sets. Discrimination ability was the only accuracy measure affected by the number of variables in a model. Main conclusions Temporal variation in species occurrence appeared to have a greater impact than did spatial variation. When temporal variation in species distributions is great, the relative costs of omission and commission errors should be assessed and long‐term census data should be examined before using predictive models of occurrence in a management setting.     

Simulated beetle defoliation on willow genotypes in mixture and monotype plantations

The effect of simulated beetle damage (0%, 25%, 50% and 75% mechanical defoliation) on 12 willow genotypes, grown in short‐rotation coppice, was studied in a modified criss‐cross experimental design. The design enabled the above‐ground effects of monoculture and mixed planting to be assessed. Repeated measurements were modelled to produce derived variables in terms of time or, more appropriately, in terms of accumulated day length (i.e. ‘developmental time’) units. These derived variables were then analysed using the REsidual Maximum Likelihood (REML) method implemented in GenStat? (2001) . No significant competition effect between the genotypes due to planting regime was detected. Genotypes Salix viminalis × Salix schwerinii‘Beagle’ and S. viminalis × S. schwerinii‘Torhild’ were found to have the greatest rate of increase in leaves regardless of defoliation and also the greatest height prior to defoliation. Genotype Salix dasyclados‘Loden’ showed the highest rate of growth under the stress of defoliation. When assessing height at the end of the growing season, S. viminalis × S. schwerinii‘Olof’ was the highest genotype for 25% and 75% levels of defoliation, but genotypes Salix aurita × Salix cinerea‘Delamere’, Loden and S. viminalis × Salix burjatica‘Ashton Parfitt’ appeared to be most tolerant by having consecutively lower base day lengths (i.e. increasing the accumulation of developmental units and the length of the growing season) for increasing defoliation. Shorter genotypes tended to be more tolerant, but of the higher genotypes reaching a control height of greater than 3 m by the end of the growing season, S. viminalis × S. schwerinii‘Tora’ and Beagle performed best to 50% defoliation.     

Comments about Joint Modeling of Cluster Size and Binary and Continuous Subunit-Specific Outcomes

In longitudinal studies and in clustered situations often binary and continuous response variables are observed and need to be modeled together. In a recent publication Dunson, Chen, and Harry (2003, Biometrics 59, 521-530) (DCH) propose a Bayesian approach for joint modeling of cluster size and binary and continuous subunit-specific outcomes and illustrate this approach with a developmental toxicity data example. In this note we demonstrate how standard software (PROC NLMIXED in SAS) can be used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates in an alternative parameterization of the model with a single cluster-level factor considered by DCH for that example. We also suggest that a more general model with additional cluster-level random effects provides a better fit to the data set. An apparent discrepancy between the estimates obtained by DCH and the estimates obtained earlier by Catalano and Ryan (1992, Journal of the American Statistical Association 87, 651-658) is also resolved. The issue of bias in inferences concerning the dose effect when cluster size is ignored is discussed. The maximum-likelihood approach considered herein is applicable to general situations with multiple clustered or longitudinally measured outcomes of different type and does not require prior specification and extensive programming.     

喀斯特槽谷区土地石漠化与综合治理技术研发

深入揭示流域尺度水-土-生资源格局和研发因地制宜的水-土-生治理技术是"十三五"石漠化治理工程的主要瓶颈。国家重点研发计划——"喀斯特槽谷区土地石漠化过程及综合治理技术研发与示范"项目(2016YFC0502300)针对槽谷区特点,锁定两个关键科学问题和五个关键技术,从过程机理研究-技术研发-应用示范3个层面解剖区域水/土/生物资源分布格局与地质地貌之间的关系,阐明石漠化过程中的相关生态变化机理,因地制宜地研发水土资源高效利用、土壤地上/下流/漏失阻控与生态恢复技术;研发野生砧木及经济树种互作效应与优化配套技术,构建槽谷区可持续的生态系统和生态产业模式并示范推广,为区域生态改善和贫困问题解决提供科技支撑。     

珍稀濒危植物翅果油树的生物学特性及其保护

翅果油树为我国特有植物,已被列为国家二级重点保护树种。本文较系统地综述了翅果油树的生物学特性,包括其外部形态、内部结构、染色体核型、生长特性、地理分布、生态学和群落学特性、根瘤固氮活性及化学成分等。文章还分析了翅果油树濒危的可能原因并提出了保护措施。     

关于可以表示成自仿射分形的生物体两种维数的计算

分形维数分析已经有效地被用来确定某些生物过程的主要特征。然而某些分形维数的计算还有待用新的数学方法来进一步研究和推广．而且人们普遍认为一些“自然分形”的盒维数和豪斯托夫维数都相等,但仍未用相关的数学理论来证明．本文就是研究象羊齿叶、青草等这样的“自然分形”两种维数的计算问题,得出了两个新结果．     

世界麦双尾蚜研究进展：防治方法和策略*

The Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), was a worldwide cereal pest. The control measures to this pest were reviewed, emphasizing on natural enemies and plant resistance. First, spring wheat with earlier planting dates had higher yield and could resist RWA infestation to a more extent, while winter wheat with later planting dates could escape infestation of Russian wheat aphid with very few exceptions. So, manipulation of wheat planting dates was suggested in worldwide scale for the aphid control. Second, the natural enemies were considered as the most important factor to reduced the pest status. Introduced and native natural enemies were evaluated for their potential as biological agents in South Africa, United States, and Australia. In South Africa, an introduced parasitoid and a predator were selected for releasing. In the United States, the project on exploring and releasing the natural enemies was unprecedented in biological control history. The endeavor in USA has been proved primarily successful today and will be afterward. The RWA control in Chile was considered most successful, partly because of their introduction of natural enemies before the aphid arrival. The native enemies together with other factors in central Asia and Europe apparently suppressed the aphids to a low level. The screen for resistant wheat was another important research project in fighting with RWA. In South Africa and USA, resistant wheat and barley were bred, and some of them had been put in commercial use for RWA control. The overwhelming mechanisms in resistant wheat varieties were antibiosis, tolerance or their combination. Though chemical insecticide spraying was proved as an effective method for aphid control, more and more research has switched from this method to non chemical control measures as required by IPM. Future research should put more emphasis on augmentation of the natural enemies, revealing the relationship between RWA and agricultural ecosystem and integration of all effective measures.