A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Principles for linking fish habitat to fisheries management and conservation

A set of eight simple ecological and social principles is proposed that could enhance the understanding of what constitutes fish 'habitat' and, if implemented, could contribute to improved management and conservation strategies. The habitat principles are a small, interrelated sub‐set that may be coupled with additional ones to formulate comprehensive guidelines for management and conservation strategies. It is proposed that: 1) habitat can be created by keystone species and interactions among species; 2) the productivity of aquatic and riparian habitat is interlinked by reciprocal exchanges of material; 3) the riparian zone is fish habitat; 4) fishless headwater streams are inseparable from fish‐bearing rivers downstream; 5) habitats can be coupled – in rivers, lakes, estuaries and oceans, and in time; 6) habitats change over hours to centuries; 7) fish production is dynamic due to biocomplexity, in species and in habitats; 8) management and conservation strategies must evolve in response to present conditions, but especially to the anticipated future. It is contended that the long‐term resilience of native fish communities in catchments shared by humans depends on incorporating these principles into management and conservation strategies. Further, traditional strategies poorly reflect the dynamic nature of habitat, the true extent of habitat, or the intrinsic complexity in societal perspectives. Forward‐thinking fish management and conservation plans view habitat as more than water. They are multilayered, ranging from pools to catchments to ecoregions, and from hours to seasons to centuries. They embrace, as a fundamental premise, that habitat evolves through both natural and anthropogenic processes, and that patterns of change may be as important as other habitat attributes.     

Global patterns of diversity among the specialist birds of riverine landscapes

1. Despite the growing view that biodiversity provides a unifying theme in river ecology, global perspectives on richness in riverine landscapes are limited. As a result, there is little theory or quantitative data on features that might have influenced global patterns in riverine richness, nor are there clear indications of which riverine landscapes are important to conservation at the global scale. As conspicuous elements of the vertebrate fauna of riverine landscapes, we mapped the global distributions of all of the world's specialist riverine birds and assessed their richness in relation to latitude, altitude, primary productivity and geomorphological complexity (surface configuration). 2. Specialist riverine birds, typical of high‐energy riverine landscapes and dependent wholly or partly on production from river ecosystems, occur in 16 families. They are represented by an estimated 60 species divided equally between the passerines and non‐passerines. Major radiation has occurred among different families on different continents, indicating that birds have evolved several times into the niches provided by riverine landscapes. 3. Continental richness varies from four species in Europe to 28 in Asia, with richness on the latter continent disproportionately larger than would be expected from a random distribution with respect to land area. Richness is greatest in mountainous regions at latitudes of 20–40°N in the riverine landscapes of the Himalayan mountains, where 13 species overlap in range. 4. Family, genus and species richness in specialist riverine birds all increase significantly with productivity and surface configuration (i.e. relief). However, family richness was the best single predictor of the numbers of species or genera. In keeping with the effect of surface configuration, river‐bird richness peaks globally at 1300–1400 m altitude, and most species occur typically on small, fast rivers where they feed predominantly on invertebrates. Increased lengths of such streams in areas of high relief and rainfall might have been responsible for species–area effects. 5. We propose the hypothesis that the diversity in channel forms and habitats in riverine landscapes, in addition to high temperature and primary productivity, have been prerequisites to the development of global patterns in the richness of specialist riverine organisms. We advocate tests of this hypothesis in other taxonomic groups. We draw attention, however, to the challenges of categorically defining riverine organisms in such tests because (i) rivers grade into many other habitat types across several different ecotones and (ii) `terrestrialisation' processes in riverine landscapes means that they offer habitat for organisms whose evolutionary origins are not exclusively riverine.     

Sugar‐feeding status alters biting midge photoattraction

The biting midge Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) transmits pathogens to both livestock and wildlife. Biting midge surveillance relies heavily on light traps for collection; however, little is known about the light spectra preferences of C. sonorensis midges. A light assay arena was constructed and light‐emitting diodes (LEDs) of various light spectra were used as light sources to evaluate midge photoattraction. A comparison of responses to light spectra indicated the highest proportions of C. sonorensis were attracted to ultraviolet (UV) light and that midges differentiated 10‐nm differences in wavelength. Stronger intensities of UV light resulted in greater attraction. Midges exhibited both sugar‐seeking and escape behaviours under different conditions of sugar supplementation before and during the experiment. These behaviours occurred with lights of 355 nm and 365 nm in wavelength. Based on the results of this study, the attraction of C. sonorensis to light traps can be improved through the use of bright LEDs at 355 nm or 365 nm.     

Oxygen: a master regulator of pancreatic development?

Beyond its role as an electron acceptor in aerobic respiration, oxygen is also a key effector of many developmental events. The oxygen‐sensing machinery and the very fabric of cell identity and function have been shown to be deeply intertwined. Here we take a first look at how oxygen might lie at the crossroads of at least two of the major molecular pathways that shape pancreatic development. Based on recent evidence and a thorough review of the literature, we present a theoretical model whereby evolving oxygen tensions might choreograph to a large extent the sequence of molecular events resulting in the development of the organ. In particular, we propose that lower oxygenation prior to the expansion of the vasculature may favour HIF (hypoxia inducible factor)‐mediated activation of Notch and repression of Wnt/β‐catenin signalling, limiting endocrine cell differentiation. With the development of vasculature and improved oxygen delivery to the developing organ, HIF‐mediated support for Notch signalling may decline while the β‐catenin‐directed Wnt signalling is favoured, which would support endocrine cell differentiation and perhaps exocrine cell proliferation/differentiation.     

Marine incursions,cryptic species and ecological diversification in Amazonia: the biogeographic history of the croaker genus Plagioscion (Sciaenidae)

Aim We propose a phylogenetic hypothesis for the marine‐derived sciaenid genus Plagioscion in the context of geomorphology and adaptation to freshwaters of South America, and assess the extent to which contemporary freshwater hydrochemical gradients influence diversification within a widely distributed Plagioscion species, Plagioscion squamosissimus. Location Amazon Basin and South America. Methods Using nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequence data, phylogenetic analyses were conducted on the five nominal Plagioscion species, together with representatives from Pachyurus and Pachypops, using character and model‐based methods. Genealogical relationships and population genetic structure of 152 P. squamosissimus specimens sampled from the five major rivers and three hydrochemical settings/‘colours’ (i.e. white, black and clear water) of the Amazon Basin were assessed. Results Phylogenetic analyses support the monophyly of Plagioscion in South America and identify two putative cryptic species of Plagioscion. Divergence estimates suggest that the Plagioscion ancestor invaded South America via a northern route during the late Oligocene to early Miocene. Within P. squamosissimus a strong association of haplotype and water colour was observed, together with significant population structure detected between water colours. Main conclusions Our analyses of Plagioscion are consistent with a biogeographic scenario of early Miocene marine incursions into South America. Based on our phylogenetic results, the fossil record, geomorphological history and distributional data of extant Plagioscion species, we propose that marine incursions into western Venezuela between the late Oligocene and early Miocene were responsible for the adaptation to freshwaters in Plagioscion species. Following the termination of the marine incursions during the late Miocene and the establishment of the modern Amazon River, Plagioscion experienced a rapid diversification. Plagioscion squamosissimus arose during that time. The formation of the Amazon River probably facilitated population and range expansions for this species. Further, the large‐scale hydrochemical gradients within the Amazon Basin appear to be acting as ecological barriers maintaining population discontinuities in P. squamosissimus even in the face of gene flow. Our results highlight the importance of divergent natural selection through time in the generation and maintenance of sciaenid diversity in Amazonia.     

The application of strand invasion phenomenon,directed by peptide nucleic acid (PNA) and single‐stranded DNA binding protein (SSB) for the recognition of specific sequences of human endogenous retroviral HERV‐W family

The HERV‐W family of human endogenous retroviruses represents a group of numerous sequences that show close similarity in genetic composition. It has been documented that some members of HERV‐W–derived expression products are supposed to play significant role in humans' pathology, such as multiple sclerosis or schizophrenia. Other members of the family are necessary to orchestrate physiological processes (eg, ERVWE1 coding syncytin‐1 that is engaged in syncytiotrophoblast formation). Therefore, an assay that would allow the recognition of particular form of HERV‐W members is highly desirable. A peptide nucleic acid (PNA)–mediated technique for the discrimination between multiple sclerosis‐associated retrovirus and ERVWE1 sequence has been developed. The assay uses a PNA probe that, being fully complementary to the ERVWE1 but not to multiple sclerosis‐associated retrovirus (MSRV) template, shows high selective potential. Single‐stranded DNA binding protein facilitates the PNA‐mediated, sequence‐specific formation of strand invasion complex and, consequently, local DNA unwinding. The target DNA may be then excluded from further analysis in any downstream process such as single‐stranded DNA‐specific exonuclease action. Finally, the reaction conditions have been optimized, and several PNA probes that are targeted toward distinct loci along whole HERV‐W env sequences have been evaluated. We believe that PNA/single‐stranded DNA binding protein–based application has the potential to selectively discriminate particular HERV‐W molecules as they are at least suspected to play pathogenic role in a broad range of medical conditions, from psycho‐neurologic disorders (multiple sclerosis and schizophrenia) and cancers (breast cancer) to that of an auto‐immunologic background (psoriasis and lupus erythematosus).