Human Interindividual Variability in Cancer Risks—Technical and Management Challenges

Existing risk assessment procedures for carcinogens are intended to be “conservative” in the uncertainty dimension—giving estimates that are expected to be higher than true risks for typical people. However, these procedures do not consider the likely variability in susceptibility among individual people. This paper updates previous estimates of the likely extent of this variability for metabolically activated, genetically-acting carcinogens based on recent information on human interindividual variability in metabolic activation, detoxification, and DNA repair. The resulting expected skewness of cancer risk distributions is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of both variability and uncertainty.

Some risk management implications are:

1. When evaluating the fairness of a particular risk distribution, managers need to gain familiarity with a three-dimensional characterization—X level of risk, for the Yth percentile individual (addressing variability) with Z degree of confidence (addressing uncertainty).

2. To the extent that variability distributions are skewed (e.g., with a long tail extending to high values) population mean risks will tend to exceed risks for median individuals. Together with the skewness in uncertainty distributions, this implies that “expected value” estimates of aggregate population risks—the estimates of interest for cost benefit analyses—are likely to be closer to traditional upper confidence limit risk estimates than has often been assumed in the past.

Noncancer Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Alternative to Current Practice

Based on imperfect data and theory, agencies such as the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) currently derive “reference doses” (RfDs) to guide risk managers charged with ensuring that human exposures to chemicals are below population thresholds. The RfD for a chemical is typically reported as a single number, even though it is widely acknowledged that there are significant uncertainties inherent in the derivation of this number.

In this article, the authors propose a probabilistic alternative to the EPA's method that expresses the human population threshold as a probability distribution of values (rather than a single RfD value), taking into account the major sources of scientific uncertainty in such estimates. The approach is illustrated using much of the same data that USEPA uses to justify their current RfD procedure.

Like the EPA's approach, our approach recognizes the four key extrapolations that are necessary to define the human population threshold based on animal data: animal to human, human heterogeneity, LOAEL to NOAEL, and subchronic to chronic. Rather than using available data to define point estimates of “uncertainty factors” for these extrapolations, the proposed approach uses available data to define a probability distribution of adjustment factors. These initial characterizations of uncertainty can then be refined when more robust or specific data become available for a particular chemical or class of chemicals.

Quantitative characterization of uncertainty in noncancer risk assessment will be useful to risk managers who face complex trade-offs between control costs and protection of public health. The new approach can help decision-makers understand how much extra control cost must be expended to achieve a specified increase in confidence that the human population threshold is not being exceeded.     

The cost of herbicide resistance in white-chicory: ecological implications for its commercial release

Applications for the commercial release of herbicide-resistant crops, most of them transgenic, are likely to become more frequent in the coming years. The ecological concerns raised by their large scale use call for risk-assessment studies. One of the major issues in such studies is the relative fitness of the resistant line compared to the susceptible when no herbicide is applied since this will largely determine the long-term fate of the resistance gene outside of the field. Here we report on a comparison of a sulfonylurea-resistant line of white-chicory regenerated from a non-mutagenized cell culture with a supposedly isogenic susceptible biotype. The plants were grown in experimental plots at a range of densities in a replacement series. The reproductive output of the plants decreased with increasing density but no significant difference was found between the two lines for any vegetative or reproductive trait at any density. This suggests that no cost is associated with the mutation causing the resistance and that the resistance gene would not be selected against if it escaped to populations of wild chicories.     

Carbon source utilization of soil extracted microorganisms as a tool to detect the effects of soil supplemented with genetically engineered and non-engineered Corynebacterium glutamicum and a recombinant peptide at the community level

Abstract: Substrate utilization of microbial cells extracted from soil with a 0.85% aqueous sodium chloride solution, was determined to estimate effects on soil microorganisms at the community level with microtiter plates (Biolog GN®) containing 95 different sources of organic carbon. A consistent pattern of utilized substrates was obtained after 24 h of microtiter plate incubation at 28°C. The absorbance values (OD₅₉₀) obtained from a microtiter plate reader after background correction were transformed by using the average absorbance values of oxidized substrates as a threshold to distinguish between well utilized and poorly or non-utilized substrates and thereby reduce variances between replicates. Doubling times of the extracted soil microorganisms in the microtiter plates were tested with 12 substrates and ranged from 1.96 h to 3.23 h, depending on the carbon source. The carbon source utilization assay was used to assess the effects of soil inoculation with Corynebacterium glutamicum with and without a genetically engineered plasmid (pUN1; 6.3 kb), which encoded for the synthesis of the mammalian protease inhibiting peptide, aprotinin. Additionally, aprotinin itself was added at two concentrations to soil samples. An identical decrease in the number of carbon sources utilized, especially carbohydrates, occurred upon soil inoculation with both C. glutamicum strains after inoculation with 10⁶ cells g⁻¹ soil. This effect was only detectable during the first three weeks of incubation, as long as cell numbers of C. glutamicum (pUN1) were above 10⁵ cfu g⁻¹. Soil amendment with aprotinin resulted in utilization of additional substrates, most of them carbohydrates. With 0.1 mg aprotinin g⁻¹ soil this stimulation lasted 2 days and with 10 mg g⁻¹ it lasted for 7 days.     

A review of issues related to the quantification of bacteria from the phyllosphere

Abstract: Quantification of the size of epiphytic bacterial populations and characterization of their composition involves definition of a sampling strategy in time and space, the choice of methods for liberating the bacteria from the leaf surface and for recovering them for subsequent determination of the number of viable or culturable cells. This literature review focuses on some of the issues related to these choices. After briefly reviewing the different types of epiphytic colonizers we consider the biological, methodological, and statistical consequences of the choice of the sampling unit and of the spatial and temporal variability of population size and composition for epiphytic bacteria. The different methods available for the detection and enumeration of naturally occurring microorganisms in the phyllosphere are discussed. Advantages and drawbacks of each are described in this review designed as a 'hands-on' guide.     

Imprecise exposure assessment and the sample size requirements of case-control studies of residential magnetic field exposure and cancer in adults

A computer program simulating case-control studies is described. It is used to estimate the minimum sample size required and to assess how this is affected by imprecise exposure assessment. In particular, the consequences of neglecting measurements of nonresidential exposure in case-control studies of residentially exposed adults are investigated. According to this model, while the consequent loss of power is not as large as was predicted by algebraic methods, it would be unwise to neglect it when planning a study. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Application of a fry (0+;) abundance index, based on semi-quantitative electrofishing, to predict Atlantic salmon smolt runs in the River Bush, Northern Ireland

An abundance index for 0+ Atlantic salmon was based on semi-quantitative electrofishing estimates at 137 sites in typical juvenile habitat throughout the River Bush (N. Ireland). 0 + abundance was linearly related to total smolt numbers migrating through a downstream trap in subsequent years ( r ²= 0.716, P <0.001), suggesting a high degree of predictive ability. This predictive ability decreased as smolt age increased, suggesting influence of density-independent mortality. Potential application of the technique to estimate smolt production from rivers having no trapping facilities is discussed, together with sources of variability potentially affecting estimates.     

Toward the brave new zoo: Species program planning for reproductive technology development

This article outlines some of the advantages inherent in domestic animal reproductive technology development and compares them to the disadvantages in such development in wildlife species. Species program planning (as proposed by the American Association of Zoological Parks and Aquariums' Species Survival Plan) is offered as an important first step in organizing appropriate research toward reproductive technology development in wildlife species.