The impact of hybrids between genetically modified crop plants and their related species: introgression and weediness

Assessing the impact of hybrids between transgenic plants and nontarget wild species involves answering several questions such as: (i) what are the hybridization and introgression rates; (ii) what is the behaviour of a transgene in a wild population; and (iii) what will be the consequences of the expression of a transgene in a wild population? These issues are discussed using results from experiments on oilseed rape and wild related Brassiceae. Evidence is given of large variations in the estimates of cross-fertilization probabilities. The first stage of introgression into wild populations is demonstrated to occur spontaneously through back-crossing. Population analysis may also be valuable to detect traces of past introgression. Data from the literature on weed biology, and especially herbicide resistance, are used to illustrate the behaviour of a new gene in weed populations. The need for computer models simulating the introgression process is stressed.     

The Monofactorial Model for Recurrence Risks with Generalized Penetrance

Recurrence risks are derived explicitly in terms of gene frequencies and penetrance coefficients for the general case in which all genotypes have incomplete penetrance. Maximum likelihood estimation of recurrence risks is achieved through the use of the semi-symmetric intraclass contingency table. The resulting formulas and estimation procedure can be useful for the analysis of population and family data, and in genetic counselling.     

Modeling rendille household herd composition

Previous analysis of Rendille household herd composition revealed a transition from camel to cattle ownership for sedentary impoverished Rendille pastoralists of northern Kenya. In an attempt to delineate determinants of livestock holdings, logistic regression analysis of 112 household herds from the Rendille settlement of Korr, Marsabit District, Kenya was undertaken. Results indicated that household wealth, measured in present livestock holdings, past drought losses, and livestock sales, formed better predictors of cattle ownership than did household characteristics pertaining to labor supply, wage earners, age-set membership, and birth order of household head. These results are discussed in light of pastoral strategies designed to minimize risk.     

Size-dependent drift responses of mayflies to experimental hydrologic variation: active predator avoidance or passive hydrodynamic displacement?

Summary Larger nymphs within aquatic insect taxa have been frequently observed to be transported down-stream in the stream drift only at night. Others have hypothesized this pattern results primarily from large nymphs' behavioural avoidance of entering drift during daylight, when size-selective, visually-feeding fish predators are most active. This hypothesis assumes that animals can actively control their entry into the drift, which may not be the case under all flow conditions. We experimentally induced streamflow increases and decreases in adjacent riffles in a hydrologically-stable stream during the daytime to examine whether changes in diel patterns of drift abundance and size-distribution of mayflies were consistent with the hypothesis of active avoidance of diurnal drift. We assessed the likelihood of active vs. passive mechanisms of diurnal drift entry and transport for four taxa that differ with respect to body size, morpho-behavioural attributes, microhabitat use, and general propensity to drift. In each of three seasons, diurnal and nocturnal drift samples were collected in three riffles over two diel cycles. Background drift patterns were established on the first day (no flow manipulation). Six h before sunset on the second day, flow was experimentally increased in one riffle, decreased in the second, and not altered in the third (control). Between-day differences in diurnal and nocturnal drift rate and size composition were then compared among the treatment and reference riffles. Responses of two taxa were consistent with active control over drift entry, transport, or both. For Baetis spp., drift-prone mayflies typically preyed upon by fish, diurnal drift rates immediately increased following both flow reduction and flow elevation in all seasons, but only small individuals comprised the drift. Drift by large individuals was delayed until nighttime. Epeorus longimanus also exhibited significant increases in drift rates following flow reduction and elevation, but responses of this large-bodied species were restricted to nighttime. Drift responses for these two taxa were largely independent of direction of hydrologic change, thus indicating a strong behavioural control over drift. By contrast, numbers and sizes of drifting Paraleptophlebia heteronea and Ephemerella infrequens depended strongly on direction of flow change. Drift rates for both species generally declined after flow reduction and increased after flow elevation. Moreover, after flow elevation, larger individuals often drifted diurnally, a finding consistent with expectations under a passive hydrodynamic model. These experiments indicate that size-dependent mayfly drift reflects not only presumed risk from visual fish predators, but also functional attributes of species such as morphology, behaviour, and microhabitat affiliation, which influence aspects of drift entry and transport under variable hydrologic conditions.     

Fish size and habitat depth relationships in headwater streams

Summary Surveys of 262 pools in 3 small streams in eastern Tennessee demonstrated a strong positive relationship between pool depth and the size of the largest fish within a pool (P<0.001). Similarly, the largest colonizers of newly-created deep pools were larger than the colonizers of shallow pools. We explored the role of predation risk in contributing to the bigger fish — deeper habitat pattern, which has been noted by others, by conducting five manipulative field experiments in two streams. Three experiments used stoneroller minnows (Campostoma anomalum); one used creek chubs (Semotilus atromaculatus); and one used striped shiners (Notropis chrysocephalus). The stoneroller experiments showed that survival of fish approximately 100 mm in total length (TL) was much lower in shallow pools (10 cm deep) than in deep (40 cm maximum) pools (19% versus 80% survival over 12 d in one experiment) and added cover markedly increased stoneroller survival in shallow pools (from 49% to 96% in an 11-d experiment). The creek chub experiment showed that, as for stonerollers, pool depth markedly influenced survival: the chubs survived an average of 4.9 d in shallow pools and >10.8 d in deep pools. In the striped shiner experiment in shallow artificial streamside troughs, no individuals 75–100 mm TL survived as long as 13 d, where-as smaller (20–25 mm) fish had 100% survival over 13 d. The results of the experiments show that predation risk from wading/diving animals (e.g., herons and raccoons) is much higher for larger fishes in shallow water than for these fishes in deeper water or for smaller fish in shallow water. We discuss the role of predation risk from two sources (piscivorous fish, which are more effective in deeper habitats, and diving/wading predators, which are more effective in shallow habitats) in contributing to the bigger fish — deeper habitat pattern in streams.     

Self-Reported Substantial 1-Year Weight Change Among Men and Women in the United States

Population-based data have not been readily available on relatively short-term changes in weight. Therefore, we sought to determine the nature of self-reported substantial (> 10%) weight change over one year in a representative sample of the US population which participated in the 1989 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Across all ages, a larger proportion of women than men reported both weight loss as well as weight gain of any amount (18.9% vs. 16.1% for weight loss and 20.0% vs. 16.1% for weight gain). In sex-specific logistic regression analyses, significant risk factors common to both sexes for substantial weight loss included divorced/separated marital status, smoking, increased number of blood pressure checks, increased BMI (body mass index) and increased number of bed days. Black race reduced the risk of weight loss for both men and women. Sex-specific risk factors for weight loss in men only were widowhood or never married marital status, while increasing age was a protective factor in women only. Concerning weight gain > 10% over the past year, increased number of blood pressure checks and having one or more diabetic parents were significant risk factors among both men and women; while never being married, increased age, BMI, and education exerted a protective effect in both sexes. For women only, risk factors for weight gain included black race, increased number of contacts with a health professional, and being unemployed. Intention to lose weight was associated with both weight gain and weight loss in both sexes, although it did not serve as a confounder in any of these relationships. A greater likelihood of substantial weight loss among women relative to men was diminished for persons with higher BMI, higher number of blood pressure checks, being widowed, divorced or separated, and intention to lose weight. A greater likelihood of substantial weight gain among women relative to men was diminished for persons with low BMI. The results of this cross-sectional study of weight change, involving a one-year follow-up period, generally correspond with the results obtained by longitudinal studies involving a longer follow-up.     

The impact of hybrids between genetically modified crop plants and their related species: biological models and theoretical perspectives

Forces affecting the rate of spread and increase of hybrids between genetically modified crop plants and their related species remain qualitatively similar, irrespective of whether genetic modification was achieved using traditional methods, those of biotechnology or as a result of the natural evolutionary process. However, the precise magnitude of the forces and, consequently, the likely environmental impact of such hybrids, may depend strongly on the nature of the gene or genes introduced into the native species. While many classes of transgenes are similar to those manipulated by conventional breeding techniques or evolution, biotechnology offers the potential to introduce genes into crops which are novel both from the point of view of function and origin. The qualitative similarity between transgenes and the products of conventional or evolutionary modification suggests that a historical view of the environmental impact of hybrids between traditionally produced crops or exotic species and their relatives would be of use in estimating the probable fate of hybrids containing transgenes in the environment. However, with certain classes of transgenes for which there are no existing analogues, there will need to be greater care in assessing the possible risks associated with release into the environment.     

Assessing the risks of transgene escape through time and crop-wild hybrid persistence

Transgenes introduced into crops can escape in time, as well as space, via the seed bank. For annual plants, especially ruderals, seed bank behaviour may be the most important factor determining population persistence. Crop seeds may exhibit some dormancy and germination cueing in the soil but are expected to be less able to persist than their wild relatives, which often have considerable dormancy and longevity, as well as effective germination cueing responses. Crop-wild hybrids may have seed bank characteristics more suited to persistence, and maternal effects may favour persistence of hybrids having wild plants for their female parent. Escape of transgenes via crop-wild hybrids presents unique concerns not present for crops. Hybrids can undergo natural selection and may back-cross with wild plants. We suggest methods that can be used in conjunction with evaluation of the relative fitness of crop-wild hybrids that will determine the likelihood of back-crossing. Accurate assessment of escape in time and transgene persistence via crop-wild hybrids requires proper plant materials. We emphasize the use of null segregants as controls for transgenic crops and for generating crop-wild hybrid controls for transgenic hybrids. Since good empirical and theoretical understanding of how individual genes influence the fate of plants in different environments is lacking, evaluation of escape in time and the persistence of transgenes via crop-wild hybrids should be on a case-by-case basis.     

Opportunities for gene transfer from transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus) to related species

Before novel transgenic plant genotypes are grown outside containment facilities and evaluated under field conditions, it is necessary to complete a risk assessment to consider the possible consequences of that release. An important aspect of risk assessment is to consider the likelihood and consequences of the transgene being transferred by cross-pollination to related species, including other crops, weeds and ruderal populations. The purpose of this report is to review the literature to assess the ease with whichBrassica napus can hybridize with related species. The evidence for hybridization is considered at three levels: a) by open pollination, b) by hand pollination and c) by the use ofin vitro ovule and embryo rescue techniques; and also examines the fertility and vigour of the F₁, F₂ and backcross generations. Four species are reported to hybridize withB. napus by open pollination:B. rapa andB. juncea using fully fertile parents; andB. adpressa andR. raphanistrum using a male-sterileB. napus parent. Seventeen species are reported to form hybrids (including the four species above) withB. napus when pollination is carried out manually. At least 12 of these species were unable to form F₂ progeny, and eight were unable to produce progeny when the F₁ was backcrossed to one of the parental species. Many factors will influence the success of hybridization under field conditions, including: distance between the parents, synchrony of flowering, method of pollen spread, specific parental genotypes used, direction of the cross and the environmental conditions. Even where there is a possibility of hybridization betweenB. napus and a related species growing in the vicinity of a release, poor vigour and high sterility in the hybrids will generally mean that hybrids and their progeny will not survive in either an agricultural or natural habitat.     

Evaluation of health risks from a buried mass of diesel fuel before and after bioremediation

Plans are being formulated for in situ bioremediation of a subsurface plume of diesel fuel No. 2 that resulted from an accidental fuel release. Raoult's law and the aqueous solubilities of the toxic components were used to estimate organic contaminant concentrations in leachate from the untreated fuel mass. Carcinogenic risks and noncarcinogenic hazard indices were calculated for undiluted leachate. An 80% decrease in hydrocarbon mass and increases in the average molecular weights of the component fractions were assumed to result from the treatment. Sample calculations are provided to show how to evaluate results of analyses for petroleum hydrocarbons after bioremediation.