Technical note: Prediction of sex based on five skull traits using decision analysis (CHAID)

Osteologists commonly assess the sex of skeletal remains found in forensic and archaeological contexts based on ordinal scores of subjectively assessed sexually dimorphic traits. Using known‐sex samples, logistic regression (LR) discriminant functions have been recently developed, which allow sex probabilities to be determined. A limitation of LR is that it emphasizes main effects and not interactions. Chi‐square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) is an alternative classification strategy that emphasizes the information in variable interactions and uses decision trees to maximize the probability of correct sex determinations. We used CHAID to analyze the predictive value of the 31 possible combinations of five sexually dimorphic skull traits that Walker used previously to develop logistic regression sex determination equations. The samples consisted of 304 individuals of known sex of English, African American, and European American origin. Based on practical considerations, selection criteria for the best sex predictive trait combinations (SPTCs) were set at accuracies for both sexes of 75% or greater and sex biases lower than 5%. Although several of the trees meeting these criteria were produced for the English and European American samples, none met them for the African American sample. In the series of out‐of‐sample tests we performed, the trees from the English and combined sample of all groups predicted best. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Fine Needle Aspiration Cytodiagnosis As A Pre-Requisite For Primary Medical Treatment of Breast Cancer

The accurate non-surgical diagnosis of breast lumps allows assessment of breast cancer patients for conservation or neoadjuvant primary treatment before surgical intervention. We have analysed the accuracy of clinical assessment, fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC), and mammography in over 868 women seen in a symptomatic breast clinic. Clinical examination by an experienced breast physician, together with FNAC, detected over 99% of the cancers with a 12% false positive rate. A cytological diagnosis of definite carcinoma was obtained in 69% of women with breast cancer with no false positive result from the women with benign conditions producing a 100% positive predictive value. These results indicate that it would be acceptable to give pre-surgical systemic endocrine or chemotherapy to women with positive cytology which is therefore a prerequisite for a neoadjuvant therapy programme.     

Proposal for an integrated approach for the assessment of cross-media aspects relevant for the determination of “best available techniques” bat in the european union

The EC Directive concerning integrated pollution prevention and control (IPPC Directive 96/61/EC) obliges all Member States to make an integrated assessment of the impacts on the environment “as a whole”, as regards granting permission for and the operation of environmentally relevant industrial installations. The determination of “Best Available Techniques” BAT plays an essential role in the material transformation of the IPPC-Directive. An integrated approach for the assessment of cross-media aspects of techniques for the determination of BAT is outlined in this paper, which is grounded on the basic concept of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), emphasising the need for decision support. The proposed assessment approach is applied to a case study sinter production in an integrated iron and steel works, which forms the base for several recommendations concerning further research.     

我国县域分级医疗服务体系构建现状研究

目的 调查分析县域地区分级医疗服务体系构建及运行现状，挖掘影响分级医疗的不利因素，提出推进对策。方法 抽样调查全国11个国家级公立医院改革试点县县域内医疗资源和服务量的布局、患者就诊流向、医药费用及医保支出等情况，采用描述性统计方法、文献分析等方法对现况进行剖析。结果 县域地区分级医疗体系基本构建，但基层医疗机构人力资源配置待优化，医疗资源利用效率、服务能力不高，医保控费效果不显著，群众就医理念待更新，基层首诊、双向转诊、分级医疗运行状况不佳。结论 实现分级医疗应从优化县域医疗服务体系结构着手，优化县域资源配置，制订双向转诊标准，提升基层医疗机构服务能力，加强健康教育，构建高效运转的县域分级医疗服务体系。     

Is Consent Based on Trust Morally Inferior to Consent Based on Information?

Informed consent is considered by many to be a moral imperative in medical research. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that in many actual instances of consent to participation in medical research, participants do not employ the provided information in their decision to consent, but rather consent based on the trust they hold in the researcher or research enterprise. In this article we explore whether trust‐based consent is morally inferior to information‐based consent. We analyse the moral values essential to valid consent – autonomy, voluntariness, non‐manipulation, and non‐exploitation – and assess whether these values are less protected and promoted by consent based on trust than they are by consent based on information. We find that this is not the case, and thus conclude that trust‐based consent if not morally inferior to information‐based consent.     

Rats use memory confidence to guide decisions

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Synergistic Benefits of Group Search in Rats

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Capuchin monkeys (Sapajus [Cebus] apella) play Nash equilibria in dynamic games,but their decisions are likely not influenced by oxytocin

Comparative approaches to experimental economics have shed light on the evolution of social decision‐making across a range of primate species, including humans. Here we replicate our previous work looking at six pairs of capuchin monkeys' (Sapajus [Cebus] apella) responses to scenarios requiring both coordination (Assurance Game) and anti‐coordination (Hawk‐Dove Game). This then provides a foundation for assessing their responses to two additional games, one with a scenario of beneficial cooperation with a temptation to defect (Prisoner's Dilemma) and one with an environment requiring changing strategies within short temporal proximity (Alternating Economic Game). We additionally explored the effects of exogenous oxytocin on decision‐making. Oxytocin did not affect decisions in any of our games. Results from the first two games largely replicated our previous findings. Responses to the Prisoner's Dilemma were more varied than was seen in previous games, with pairs respectively cooperating, defecting, and failing to establish stable strategies. Such variability indicates that this game may be a good assay for individual differences in social decision‐making. Finally, capuchins were able to flexibly switch between their previously established strategies within each of the different games, even when the games were presented within the same session, requiring strategy adjustments within short temporal proximity. These results build on earlier findings showing that capuchins can alter decision‐making strategies as the context demands, which is likely essential for decision‐making in naturally occurring contexts.     

Senescent cells and the incidence of age‐related diseases

Age‐related diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, kidney failure, and osteoarthritis have universal features: Their incidence rises exponentially with age with a slope of 6–8% per year and decreases at very old ages. There is no conceptual model which explains these features in so many diverse diseases in terms of a single shared biological factor. Here, we develop such a model, and test it using a nationwide medical record dataset on the incidence of nearly 1000 diseases over 50 million life‐years, which we provide as a resource. The model explains incidence using the accumulation of senescent cells, damaged cells that cause inflammation and reduce regeneration, whose level rise stochastically with age. The exponential rise and late drop in incidence are captured by two parameters for each disease: the susceptible fraction of the population and the threshold concentration of senescent cells that causes disease onset. We propose a physiological mechanism for the threshold concentration for several disease classes, including an etiology for diseases of unknown origin such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and osteoarthritis. The model can be used to design optimal treatments that remove senescent cells, suggeting that treatment starting at old age can sharply reduce the incidence of all age‐related diseases, and thus increase the healthspan.     

Implementing Article 28 of the UN Fish Stocks Agreement: The First Review of a Conservation Measure in the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation

This article assesses the contribution of the 2013 Review of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation's measure on jack mackerel to effective decision making as mandated by the UN Fish Stocks Agreement. Though positive overall, the review highlights some potential flaws, notably the dilemma that the requirement of an alternative measure equivalent in effect to the one challenged may, if interpreted strictly, lead to a replacement measure just as unacceptable to the state initiating the review. Other issues emerging from the review are the incentive to overreport catch in anticipation of an allocation and a doubtful interpretation of a central provision in the treaty that created the organization.