Sustainability indices for exploited populations

Evaluating the sustainability of hunting is key to the conservation of species exploited for bushmeat. Researchers are often hampered by a lack of basic biological data, the usual response to which is to develop sustainability indices based on highly simplified population models. However, the standard indices in the bushmeat literature do not perform well under realistic conditions of uncertainty, bias in parameter estimation, and habitat loss. Another possible approach to estimating the sustainability of hunting under uncertainty is to use Bayesian statistics, but this is mathematically demanding. Red listing of threatened species has to be carried out in extremely data-poor situations: uncertainty has been incorporated into this process in a relatively simple and intuitive way using fuzzy numbers. The current methods for estimating sustainability of bushmeat hunting also do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity. No-take areas are one management tool that can address uncertainty in a spatially explicit way.     

Response of wheat canopy CO2 and water gas-exchange to soil water content under ambient and elevated CO2

The nature of the interaction between drought and elevated CO₂ partial pressure (pC_a) is critically important for the effects of global change on crops. Some crop models assume that the relative responses of transpiration and photosynthesis to soil water deficit are unaltered by elevated pC_a, while others predict decreased sensitivity to drought at elevated pC_a. These assumptions were tested by measuring canopy photosynthesis and transpiration in spring wheat (cv. Minaret) stands grown in boxes with 100 L rooting volume. Plants were grown under controlled environments with constant light (300 µmol m^?2 s^?1) at ambient (36 Pa) or elevated (68 Pa) pC_a and were well watered throughout growth or had a controlled decline in soil water starting at ear emergence. Drought decreased final aboveground biomass (?15%) and grain yield (?19%) while elevated pC_a increased biomass (+24%) and grain yield (+29%) and there was no significant interaction. Elevated pC_a increased canopy photosynthesis by 15% on average for both water regimes and increased dark respiration per unit ground area in well‐watered plants, but not drought‐grown ones. Canopy transpiration and photosynthesis were decreased in drought‐grown plants relative to well‐watered plants after about 20–25 days from the start of the drought. Elevated pC_a decreased transpiration only slightly during drought, but canopy photosynthesis continued to be stimulated so that net growth per unit water transpired increased by 21%. The effect of drought on canopy photosynthesis was not the consequence of a loss of photosynthetic capacity initially, as photosynthesis continued to be stimulated proportionately by a fixed increase in irradiance. Drought began to decrease canopy transpiration below a relative plant‐available soil water content of 0.6 and canopy photosynthesis and growth below 0.4. The shape of these responses were unaffected by pC_a, supporting the simple assumption used in some models that they are independent of pC_a.     

Estimating Size and Trend of the North Interlake Woodland Caribou Population Using Fecal-DNA and Capture-Recapture Models

A critical step in recovery efforts for endangered and threatened species is the monitoring of population demographic parameters. As part of these efforts, we evaluated the use of fecal-DNA based capture–recapture methods to estimate population sizes and population rate of change for the North Interlake woodland caribou herd (Rangifer tarandus caribou), Manitoba, Canada. This herd is part of the boreal population of woodland caribou, listed as threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act (2003) and the provincial Manitoba Endangered Species Act (2006). Between 2004 and 2009 (9 surveys), we collected 1,080 fecal samples and identified 180 unique genotypes (102 females and 78 males). We used a robust design survey plan with 2 surveys in most years and analysed the data with Program MARK to estimate encounter rates (p), apparent survival rates (φ), rates of population change (λ), and population sizes (N). We estimated these demographic parameters for males and females and for 2 genetic clusters within the North Interlake. The population size estimates were larger for the Lower than the Upper North Interlake area and the proportion of males was lower in the Lower (33%) than the Upper North Interlake (49%). Population rate of change for the entire North Interlake area (2005–2009) using the robust design Pradel model was significantly <1.0 (λ = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82–0.99) and varied between sex and area with the highest being for males in Lower North Interlake (λ = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.83–1.13) and the lowest being for females in Upper North Interlake (λ = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.69–0.97). The additivity of λ between sex and area is supported on the log scale and translates into males having a λ that is 0.09 greater than females and independent of sex, Lower North Interlake having a λ that is 0.06 greater than Upper North Interlake. Population estimates paralleled these declining trends, which correspond to trends observed in other fragmented populations of woodland caribou along the southern part of their range. The results of this study clearly demonstrate the applicability and success of non-invasive genetic sampling in monitoring populations of woodland caribou. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Cost-efficient selection of a marker panel in genetic studies

Genetic techniques are frequently used to sample and monitor wildlife populations. The goal of these studies is to maximize the ability to distinguish individuals for various genetic inference applications, a process which is often complicated by genotyping error. However, wildlife studies usually have fixed budgets, which limit the number of genetic markers available for inclusion in a study marker panel. Prior to our study, a formal algorithm for selecting a marker panel that included genotyping error, laboratory costs, and ability to distinguish individuals did not exist. We developed a constrained nonlinear programming optimization algorithm to determine the optimal number of markers for a marker panel, initially applied to a pilot study designed to estimate black bear abundance in central Georgia. We extend the algorithm to other genetic applications (e.g., parentage or population assignment) and incorporate possible null alleles. Our algorithm can be used in wildlife pilot studies to assess the feasibility of genetic sampling for multiple genetic inference applications. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Joint generalized models for multidimensional outcomes: A case study of neuroscience data from multimodalities

This paper is motivated from the analysis of neuroscience data in a study of neural and muscular mechanisms of muscle fatigue. Multidimensional outcomes of different natures were obtained simultaneously from multiple modalities, including handgrip force, electromyography (EMG), and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We first study individual modeling of the univariate response depending on its nature. A mixed‐effects beta model and a mixed‐effects simplex model are compared for modeling the force/EMG percentages. A mixed‐effects negative‐binomial model is proposed for modeling the fMRI counts. Then, I present a joint modeling approach to model the multidimensional outcomes together, which allows us to not only estimate the covariate effects but also to evaluate the strength of association among the multiple responses from different modalities. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the possible benefits by the new approaches in finite sample situations. Finally, the analysis of the fatigue data is illustrated with the use of the proposed methods.     

Assessing population parameters and trends of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis): An eight‐year mark‐recapture study

This study represents the first attempt to study the population dynamics of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis), by evaluating a set of demographic parameters. The population of the Caravelas River estuary, eastern Brazil, was systematically monitored through a long‐term mark‐recapture experiment (2002–2009). Abundance estimates revealed a small population (57–124 dolphins), comprised of resident dolphins and individuals that temporarily leave or pass through the study area. Temporary emigration from the estuary to adjacencies (γ″= 0.33 ± 0.07 SE) and return rate (1 ?γ′= 0 .67) were moderate and constant, indicating that some dolphins use larger areas. Survival rate (?= 0.88 ± 0.07 SE) and abundance were constant throughout the study period. Power analysis showed that the current monitoring effort has high probability of detecting abrupt population declines (1 ?β= 0.9). Although the monitoring is not yet sensitive to subtle population trends, sufficient time to identify them is feasible (additional 3 yr). Despite such apparent stability, this population, as many others, inhabits waters exposed to multiple human‐related threats. Open and closed population modeling applied to photo‐identification data provide a robust baseline for estimating several demographic parameters and can be applied to other populations to allow further comparisons. Such synergistic efforts will allow a reliable definition of conservation status of this species.