基于SD的生态安全指标阈值的确定及应用——以上海崇明岛为例

结合区域复合生态系统的特点,建立由经济、人口、资源、环境和生态5个子系统71个参数构成的上海崇明岛区域生态安全的系统动力学模型,并以变量"净GDP"为参考依据,通过情景仿真进行生态安全趋势分析和方案比较,确定生态安全的指标阈值;通过系统模拟对阈值进行验证,认为阈值在反映系统动态发展趋势上,是一定发展模式下的生态安全的特征参照系。这一尝试克服了目前生态安全指标阈值的研究中以参照法为主的静态性缺憾。将确定的阈值应用于崇明岛生态安全的评价和因子分析中,发现由于崇明岛生态岛的定位和生态保障措施的实施,近几年生态安全综合得分呈现逐步提高的特点,但目前(2007年)得分为0.523,仍处于中等水平;并以阈值为标准的因子检验发现各主要安全因子差异较大,主要的制约因子主要体现为环境治污水平和能源利用等方面。     

Rebound effects of price differences

Goal, Scope and Background  Traditionally, comparative life cycle assessments (LCA) have not considered rebound effects, for instance in case of significant price differences among the compared products. No justifications have been made for this delimitation in scope. This article shows that price differences and the consequent effects of marginal consumer expenditure may influence the conclusions of comparative LCA significantly. We also show that considerations about rebound effects of price differences can be included in LCAs. Methods  The direct rebound effect of a price difference is marginal consumption. Based on statistical data on private consumption in different income groups (Statistics Denmark 2005a, 2005b), the present article provides an estimate of how an average Danish household will spend an additional 1 DKK for further consumer goods, when the household has gained money from choosing a cheaper product alternative. The approach is to use marginal income changes and the following changes in consumption patterns as an expression for marginal consumption. Secondly, the environmental impact potentials related to this marginal consumption are estimated by the use of environmental impact intensity data from an IO-LCA database (Weidema et al. 2005). Finally, it is discussed whether, and in which ways the conclusions of comparative LCAs can be affected by including the price difference between product alternatives. This is elucidated in a case study of a comparative LCA screening of two different kinds of Danish cheese products (Fricke et al. 2004). Results  Car purchase and driving, use and maintenance of dwelling, clothing purchase and insurance constitutes the largest percentages of the marginal consumption. In a case study of two cheeses, the including the impact potentials related to the price difference results in significant changes in the total impact potentials. Considering the relatively small price difference of the two products, it is likely also to have a significant influence on the results of comparative LCAs more generally. Discussion  The influence of marginal consumption in comparative LCAs is relevant to consider in situations with large differences in the price of the product alternatives being compared, and in situations with minor differences in the impact potentials related to the alternatives. However, different uncertainties are linked to determining the pattern for marginal consumption and the environmental impact potential related to this. These are first of all related to the method used, but also include inaccurate data of consumption in households, aggregation and weighting of income groups, aggregation of product groups, estimation and size of the price difference, and the general applicability of the results. Conclusion  Incorporating marginal consumption in consequential LCAs is possible in practice. In the case study used, including the rebound effects of the price difference has a significant influence on the result of the comparative LCA, as the result for the impact categories acidification and nutrient enrichment changes in favour of the expensive product. Recommendations and Perspectives  It is recommended that the rebound effects of price differences should be included more frequently in LCAs. In order to ensure this, further research in marginal consumption and investment patterns and IO data for different countries or regions is required. Furthermore, this study does not consider the economic distributional consequences of buying an expensive product instead of a cheaper product (e.g. related to how the profit is spent by those who provided the product). It should also be noted, that more expensive products not necessarily result in less consumption, as those who provided the product also will spend the money they have earned from the sale. Ideally, these consequences should also be further investigated. Likewise, the development of databases to include marginal consumption in PC-tools is needed. In general, considerations of marginal consumption would favour expensive product alternatives, depending, however, on the type of consumer. ESS-Submission Editor: Dr. David Hunkeler (david.hunkeler@aquaplustech.ch)     

The determinants of stability in the human prion protein: insights into folding and misfolding from the analysis of the change in the stabilization energy distribution in different conditions

The dynamic evolution of the PrP(C) from its NMR-derived conformation to a beta-sheet-rich, aggregation-prone conformation is studied through all-atom, explicit solvent molecular dynamics in different temperature and pH conditions. The trajectories are analyzed by means of a recently introduced energy decomposition approach aimed at identifying the key residues for the stabilization and folding of the protein. It is shown that under native conditions the stabilization energy is concentrated in regions of the helices H1 and H3, whereas under misfolding conditions (low pH, high temperature, or mutations in selected sites) it is spread out over helix H2. Misfolding appears to be a rearrangement of the chain that disrupts most of the native secondary structure of the protein, producing some beta-rich conformations with an energy distribution similar to that of the native state.     

Shoot population dynamics of persisting clones of<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Miscanthus sinensis</Emphasis> in the warm-temperate region of Japan

The population dynamics of annual shoots in four clonal patches of Miscanthus sinensis was surveyed in terms of clone persistence. Over a study period of 3 years, a stable net shoot number was attained through a balanced replacement of old shoots by tillering 2–3 times a year. The birth rate was significantly correlated with the average monthly temperature. This suggests that a warm climate advances the date of tillerings, and shoots become taller as they emerge earlier. Five cohorts were identified, corresponding to shoots that were born in spring, early summer, summer, autumn and early winter. The autumn cohorts were more numerous and had a greater longevity than the other cohorts; they were thus were best suited for overwintering and, consequently, maintaining the population from one generation to the next. The shoots of earlier cohorts grew too tall to survive the cold of winter, which might cause freezing injury, while later cohorts shoots excelled in overwintering because of their shortness. However, if the delayed shoots are very short, they will also have difficulty in surviving the early season of growth. Therefore, M. sinensis shoots have an optimum size for survival.     

Seedling establishment in relation to microhabitat variation in a windthrow gap in a boreal Pinus sylvestris forest

Abstract. The characteristics of microhabitats of established Pinus sylvestris and Betula seedlings were studied in a small windthrow gap in a mature P. sylvestris-dominated forest in the Petkeljärvi National Park in eastern Finland. Seedlings were strongly clustered in disturbed microhabitats, particularly uprooting pits and mounds, formed by tree falls. They covered 3% of the 0.3.ha study area consisting of the gap and some of the forest edge. Although Betula occurred only as scattered individuals in the dominant canopy layer of the forest, it accounted for 30% of the seedlings found in the study area. Betula regeneration was almost completely restricted to pits and mounds, where 91% of the seedlings were found. Uprooting spots were also the most important regeneration microhabitats for Pinus, where 60% of the seedlings grew, even though the seedlings were found in other substrates as well, particularly on sufficiently decomposed coarse wood. Undisturbed field- and bottom-layer vegetation had effectively hindered tree seedling establishment, which emphasises the role of soil disturbance for regeneration. While the establishment of seedlings was found to be clearly determined by the availability of favourable regeneration microhabitats, the early growth of seedlings was affected by a complex interaction of environmental variables, including the type of microhabitat, radiation environment and interferences caused by competing seedlings and adjacent trees. In the most important regeneration microhabitats, i.e. in uprooting pits and on mounds, the distributions of the local elevations of Pinus and Betula seedlings were different. Pinus seedlings occurred closer to ground level, i.e. on the fringes of pits and lower on mounds, while Betula seedlings grew deeper in pits and higher on mounds. The position of the Betula seedlings indicate that they may have a competitive advantage over Pinus seedlings in the dense seedling groups occurring in uprooting spots. We suggest that this initial difference in Pinus and Betula establishment may affect the subsequent within-gap tree species succession and can, in part, explain the general occurrence of Betula in conifer-dominated boreal forests.     

Integrated computational approaches to screen gene expression data to determine key genes and therapeutic targets for type-2 diabetes mellitus

There is a rapid rise in cases of Type-2-diabetes mellitus (T2DM) globally, irrespective of the geography, ethnicity or any other variable factors. The molecular mechanisms that could cause the condition of T2DM need to be more thoroughly analysed to understand the clinical manifestations and to derive better therapeutic regimes. Tools in bioinformatics are used to trace out key gene elements and to identify the key causative gene elements and their possible therapeutic agents. Microarray datasets were retrieved from the Gene expression omnibus database and studied using R to derive different expressed gene (DEG) elements. With the comparison of the expressed genes with disease specific genes in DisGeNET, the final annotated genes were taken for analysis. Gene Ontology studies, Protein–protein interaction (PPI), Co-expression analysis, Gene-drug interactions were performed to scale down the hub genes and to identify the novelty across the genes analysed so far. In vivo and invitro analysis of key genes and the trace of interaction pathway is crucial to better understand the unique outcomes from the novel genes, forming the basis to understand the pathway that ends up causing T2DM. Afterwards, docking was executed enabling recognition of interacting residues involved in inhibition. The complex CCL5-265 and CD8A-40585 thus docked showed best results as is evident from its PCA analysis and MMGBSA calculation. There is now scope for deriving candidate drugs that could possibly detect personalized therapies for T2DM.     

荷叶铁线蕨自然居群的遗传多样性研究

荷叶铁线蕨(Adiantumreniformevar. sinense)为我国特有植物,具有重要的经济价值,目前仅分布于重庆的少数地区。近几十年来,由于过度开发,该种的分布范围日益缩小,已处于灭绝的边缘。本研究利用等位酶标记检测了荷叶铁线蕨 6个自然居群共 136个个体的遗传多样性,共检测到了 5个酶系统的 14个位点,获得了 7个多态位点。结果表明:与其他蕨类植物相比,荷叶铁线蕨居群内的遗传多样性水平比较低。平均每位点的有效等位基因数(Ae)为 1. 778,多态位点百分率(P)为 0. 441,期望杂合度(He)为 0. 199,观察杂合度 (Ho)为 0. 235。其居群间的遗传分化也很低,居群间的遗传变异仅占总变异的 1. 49%,而 98. 51%的变异存在于居群内部。采用Hardy Wein berg平衡和固定指数F对荷叶铁线蕨的居群遗传结构进行了分析,结果表明其种群可能是以配子体间异交为主的混合交配体系。导致荷叶铁线蕨濒危的主要原因是生境的破坏以及过度开采所导致的生境片断化使其居群变小、近交率加大、遗传变异趋低,降低了其生存以及进化的潜力。     

High frequency of polyandry in a lek mating system

The adaptive significance of polyandry by female birds in theabsence of direct benefits remains unclear. We determined thefrequencies of polyandrous mating and multiple paternity inthe ruff, a lekking shorebird with a genetic dimorphism inmale mating behavior. More than half of female ruffs mate with, and have clutches fertilized by, more than one male. Individualfemales mate with males of both behavioral morphs more oftenthan expected. Polyandrous mating was more likely followingcopulation interference, but interference was uncommon. Themultiple paternity rate of ruffs is the highest known for avian lekking species and for shorebirds. The general hypothesis thatpair-bond constraints are the major selective factor favoringmultiple mating in birds does not predict our findings. Activegenetic diversification, which has been widely dismissed asa functional explanation for polyandrous mating in birds, mayapply with respect to the behavioral polymorphism in ruffs becauseof a Mendelian genetic basis for male behavioral morph determinationand aspects of male—male cooperation and female choice.However, rates of multiple paternity in other species of lekkingbirds are higher than generally realized, and the potentialbenefits of diversification in general deserve further consideration.     

Low seed availability may limit recruitment in grazed Atriplex vesicaria and contribute to its local extinction

Poor recruitment in Atriplex vesicaria Hewd exBenth (bladder saltbush) under sheep grazing in the chenopodshrublands of southern Australia contributes to a decline in the shrub'spopulation growth rate. This may lead to local extinction of the species overlarge areas around watering points. This study investigated whether low seedavailability may contribute to poor recruitment. It examined the incidence offlowering and seed bank size at sites distributed across a large grazedpaddock,and examined the longevity of seed in the soil. Grazing by sheep reduced theincidence of flowering and input to the seed bank. The proportion of shrubswithflowers increased with distance from water, showing the characteristicpiosphereresponse. Shrubs on grazed sites closer to water experienced extended periodswhen they failed to flower or flowered poorly. The seed bank was negligible atthree of the sites within 1650 m of water for all three years ofsampling. In contrast, the seed bank at the most distant site sampled (2800m from water) was small in 1990 (37 ± 5.1seeds/m²) but in 1991 and 1992 seed numberswere substantial (626 ± 315.2 seeds/m²and 318 ± 169.0, respectively). Soil seed was short-lived inthis study, with only 34% and 17% of the original seed remainingas viable ungerminated seed after 12 months for the under-canopy andexposed treatments respectively. Whilst recruitment may also be limited byaltered soil conditions due to grazing and trampling and the availability ofsafe sites, the results of this study suggest that low seed availability may bean important factor contributing to poor recruitment and may limit the abilityof the population to recover from the loss of established plants. Management ofgrazing must take into account the need for A. vesicariapopulations to flower and set seed on a regular basis.