Land‐use and climate change effects on population size and extinction risk of Andean plants

Andean plant species are predicted to shift their distributions, or ‘migrate,’ upslope in response to future warming. The impacts of these shifts on species' population sizes and their abilities to persist in the face of climate change will depend on many factors including the distribution of individuals within species' ranges, the ability of species to migrate and remain at equilibrium with climate, and patterns of human land‐use. Human land‐use may be especially important in the Andes where anthropogenic activities above tree line may create a hard barrier to upward migrations, imperiling high‐elevation Andean biodiversity. In order to better understand how climate change may impact the Andean biodiversity hotspot, we predict the distributional responses of hundreds of plant species to changes in temperature incorporating population density distributions, migration rates, and patterns of human land‐use. We show that plant species from high Andean forests may increase their population sizes if able to migrate onto the expansive land areas above current tree line. However, if the pace of climate change exceeds species' abilities to migrate, all species will experience large population losses and consequently may face high risk of extinction. Using intermediate migration rates consistent with those observed for the region, most species are still predicted to experience population declines. Under a business‐as‐usual land‐use scenario, we find that all species will experience large population losses regardless of migration rate. The effect of human land‐use is most pronounced for high‐elevation species that switch from predicted increases in population sizes to predicted decreases. The overriding influence of land‐use on the predicted responses of Andean species to climate change can be viewed as encouraging since there is still time to initiate conservation programs that limit disturbances and/or facilitate the upward migration and persistence of Andean plant species.     

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC‐AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water‐balance‐related parameters. Temperature‐dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon ‘dieback’ results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long‐term investments are required.     

Evapotranspiration and water use efficiency in a Chesapeake Bay wetland under carbon dioxide enrichment

Wetlands evapotranspire more water than other ecosystems, including agricultural, forest and grassland ecosystems. However, the effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration (C_a) on wetland evapotranspiration (ET) are largely unknown. Here, we present data on 12 years of measurements of ET, net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE), and ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE, i.e. NEE/ET) at 13:00–15:00 hours in July and August for a Scirpus olneyi (C3 sedge) community and a Spartina patens (C4 grass) community exposed to ambient and elevated (ambient+340 μmol mol^?1) C_a in a Chesapeake Bay wetland. Although a decrease in stomatal conductance at elevated C_a in the S. olneyi community was counteracted by an increase in leaf area index (LAI) to some extend, ET was still reduced by 19% on average over 12 years. In the S. patens community, LAI was not affected by elevated C_a and the reduction of ET was 34%, larger than in the S. olneyi community. For both communities, the relative reduction in ET by elevated C_a was directly proportional to precipitation due to a larger reduction in stomatal conductance in the control plants as precipitation decreased. NEE was stimulated about 36% at elevated C_a in the S. olneyi community but was not significantly affected by elevated C_a in S. patens community. A negative correlation between salinity and precipitation observed in the field indicated that precipitation affected ET through altered salinity and interacted with growth C_a. This proposed mechanism was supported by a greenhouse study that showed a greater C_a effect on ET in controlled low salinity conditions compared with high salinity. In spite of the differences between the two communities in their responses to elevated C_a, EWUE was increased about 83% by elevated C_a in both the S. olneyi and S. patens communities. These findings suggest that rising C_a could have significant impacts on the hydrologic cycles of coastal wetlands.     

Environmental controls on water use efficiency during severe drought in an Ozark Forest in Missouri,USA

To accurately predict ecosystem responses induced by climate warming at local‐to‐global scales, models are in need of more precise knowledge of response during periods of environmental stress such as drought. In this paper, we studied environmental control of canopy‐level water use efficiency (WUE) during drought at an eddy flux site in an oak‐hickory forest in central Missouri, USA. Two consecutive severe droughts in the summers of 2006 and 2007 afforded coverage of a broad range of environmental conditions. We stratified data to obtain subranges that minimized cross‐correlations among putative WUE‐controlling factors. Our results showed that WUE was subject to control by atmospheric saturation deficit (ASD), soil water potential (SWP) and the ratio of diffuse to total photosynthetically active radiation (I_f/I_t). Generally, WUE was found to scale with 1/(ASD)^0.5, consistent with predictions from stomatal optimization theory. In contrast, SWP and I_f/I_t were related to WUE in a linear fashion. ASD was better correlated with WUE than either of the other two factors. It was also observed that the relationship between WUE and any single controlling factor was subject to influence of the other two. One such example was an opposite response of WUE to SWP between low and high ASD values, suggesting a breakdown of stomatal optimality under severe environmental stresses and a shift from optimal stomatal regulation to nonstomatal regulation at leaf scale. We have demonstrated that different data handling (stratified vs. nonstratified) or selection (hourly vs. daily) could lead to different conclusions on the relationship between WUE and its controls. For this reason, we recommend modelers to be cautious when applying WUE‐response formulas at environmental conditions or at time scales different from those at which they are derived.     

On the relationship between water table depth and water vapor and carbon dioxide fluxes in a minerotrophic fen

The focus of this study is the relationship between water table depth (WTD) and water vapor [evapotranspiration (ET)] and carbon dioxide [CO₂; net ecosystem exchange (NEE)] fluxes in a fen in western Canada. We analyzed hydrological and eddy covariance measurements from four snow‐free periods (2003–2006) with contrasting meteorological conditions to establish the link between daily WTD and ET and gross ecosystem CO₂ exchange (GEE) and ecosystem respiration (R_eco; NEE=R_eco?GEE), respectively: 2003 was warm and dry, 2004 was cool and wet, and 2005 and 2006 were both wet. In 2003, the water table (WT) was below the ground surface. In 2004, the WT rose above the ground surface, and in 2005 and 2006, the WT stayed well above the ground surface. There were no significant differences in total ET (～316 mm period^?1), but total NEE was significantly different (2003: 8 g C m^?2 period^?1; 2004: ?139 g C m^?2 period^?1; 2005: ?163 g C m^?2 period^?1; 2006: ?195 g C m^?2 period^?1), mostly due to differences in total GEE (2003: 327 g C m^?2 period^?1; 2004: 513 g C m^?2 period^?1; 2005: 411 g C m^?2 period^?1; 2006: 556 g C m^?2 period^?1). Variation in ET is mostly explained by radiation (67%), and the contribution of WTD is only minor (33%). WTD controls the compensating contributions of different land surface components, resulting in similar total ET regardless of the hydrological conditions. WTD and temperature each contribute about half to the explained variation in GEE up to a threshold ponding depth, below which temperature alone is the key explanatory variable. WTD is only of minor importance for the variation in R_eco, which is mainly controlled by temperature. Our study implies that future peatland modeling efforts explicitly consider topographic and hydrogeological influences on WTD.     

Thicket expansion in a South African savanna under divergent land use: local vs. global drivers?

Woody plant increase in grassy biomes has been widely reported over the last century. Increases have been attributed to local drivers associated with land use change, such as heavy grazing or fire suppression, or, controversially, to global drivers such as increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Here, we report a comparison of woody increase since the 1930s in three neighbouring areas with highly contrasting land use systems to help distinguish between local and global causes of woody increase. Aerial photography was used to measure changes in tree cover for three time intervals (1937, 1960, 2004) for three adjacent 25 km² sites which remained under radically different tenure (conservation, commercial farms, and communal rangeland) over the study period. From previous studies on drivers affecting savanna dynamics, we predicted a decrease in tree cover for the conservation and communal sites and an increase in tree cover at the commercial site. The analyses showed highly significant increases in tree cover at all sites. Total tree cover increased from 14% in 1937 to 58% in 2004 at the conservation site, 3–50% in the commercial ranching area and 6–25% in the communal farming area. Reconstruction of past land use practices showed large differences in stocking rates, herbivore species, burning practices, human population densities and natural resource harvesting between the three sites. These land use differences are reflected in differences in woody cover among the three sites in 2004. However, despite major differences in land use, tree cover also increased significantly in all three areas. This suggests global drivers favouring woody plant increase in grassy vegetation regardless of land use practises. In our study area the most likely candidates are increased CO₂ and/or atmospheric nitrogen deposition.     

Soil organic carbon stock change due to land use activity along the agricultural frontier of the southwestern Amazon,Brazil, between 1970 and 2002

The southwestern portion of the Brazilian Amazon arguably represents the largest agricultural frontier in the world, and within this region the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso have about 24% and 32% of their respective areas under agricultural management, which is almost half of the total area deforested in the Brazilian Amazon biome. Consequently, it is assumed that deforestation in this region has caused substantial loss of soil organic carbon (SOC). In this study, the changes in SOC stocks due to the land use change and management in the southwestern Amazon were estimated for two time periods from 1970–1985 and 1985–2002. An uncertainty analysis was also conducted using a Monte Carlo approach. The results showed that mineral soils converted to agricultural management lost a total of 5.37 and 3.74 Tg C yr^?1 between 1970–1985 and 1985–2002, respectively, along the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier in the states of Mato Grosso and Rondônia. Uncertainties in these estimates were ±37.3% and ±38.6% during the first and second time periods, respectively. The largest sources of uncertainty were associated with reference carbon (C) stocks, expert knowledge surveys about grassland condition, and the management factors for nominal and degraded grasslands. These results showed that land use change and management created a net loss of C from soils, however, the change in SOC stocks decreased substantially from the first to the second time period due to the increase in land under no‐tillage.     

Soil–atmosphere exchange of CH4, CO,N2O and NOx and the effects of land‐use change in the semiarid Mallee system in Southeastern Australia

The semiarid and arid zones cover a quarter of the global land area and support one‐fifth of the world's human population. A significant fraction of the global soil–atmosphere exchange for climatically active gases occurs in semiarid and arid zones yet little is known about these exchanges. A study was made of the soil–atmosphere exchange of CH₄, CO, N₂O and NO_x in the semiarid Mallee system, in north‐western Victoria, Australia, at two sites: one pristine mallee and the other cleared for approximately 65 years for farming (currently wheat). The mean (± standard error) rates of CH₄ exchange were uptakes of ?3.0 ± 0.5 ng(C) m^?2 s^?1 for the Mallee and ?6.0 ± 0.3 ng(C) m^?2 s^?1 for the Wheat. Converting mallee forest to wheat crop increases CH₄ uptake significantly. CH₄ emissions were observed in the Mallee in summer and were hypothesized to arise from termite activity. We find no evidence that in situ growing wheat plants emit CH₄, contrary to a recent report. The average CO emissions of 10.1 ± 1.8 ng(C) m^?2 s^?1 in the Mallee and 12.6 ± 2.0 ng(C) m^?2 s^?1 in the Wheat. The average N₂O emissions were 0.5 ± 0.1 ng(N) m^?2 s^?1 from the pristine Mallee and 1.4 ± 0.3 ng(N) m^?2 s^?1 from the Wheat. The experimental results show that the processes controlling these exchanges are different to those in temperate systems and are poorly understood.     

BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH: Diversity and distribution of macroinvertebrates in lentic habitats in massively altered landscapes in south‐eastern Australia

Aim We investigated whether faunas of lentic macroinvertebrates differed among two landscape types: (1) those that are largely covered in forests (presumed to be in a more pre‐human‐impact condition) and (2) those that are completely cleared for agricultural exploitation (massively altered). Location Five pairs of landscapes (each pair referred to as a region) – one of each landscape type – across a 30,000 km² region of north‐central Victoria, Australia. Methods Each individual waterbody was surveyed three times (austral spring 2006, autumn 2007, and spring 2007) for invertebrates. Waterbodies were characterized by measurements of static (e.g. abutting vegetation cover) and labile (e.g. pH) variables. Data were analysed using hierarchical Bayesian models of species richness, α‐ and β‐diversities and functional feeding groups. Assemblage composition was related to landscape and in‐waterbody characteristics. Results Neither measured, nor asymptotic estimates of, species richness differed among landscape types, notwithstanding consistent differences in in‐waterbody habitat characteristics among waterbodies in the two landscape types. There were no discernible differences in patterns of α‐ and β‐diversities at landscape scales relating to landscape type. Habitat diversity of waterbodies at the landscape scale did not affect β‐diversity, although distinct waterbodies within landscapes tended to have more distinct faunas. Main conclusions The lentic macroinvertebrate faunas are relatively homogeneous over the entire region, with little differentiation between wooded and cleared landscapes. The regional fauna may be a homogenized subset of native species, possibly arising from the huge numerical predominance of lentic habitats in agricultural landscapes producing ‘spill‐over’ effects into forested landscapes. Of taxa more frequently found in one or other landscape type, trophic group diversity was greater in forested landscapes.     

On the Relationships between Ground-dwelling Spider (Araneae) Assemblages and Dead Wood in a Northern Sugar Maple Forest

Downed woody material (fallen logs) offers ground-dwelling spiders (Araneae) ideal sites for nesting and foraging, but little is known about what characteristics of dead wood influence spider assemblages. In a maple forest of Forillon National Park, in eastern Québec (Canada), spider assemblages on, adjacent to, and away from fallen logs were compared. We also tested how log type (coniferous vs. deciduous) and decomposition stage influenced spider assemblages. Sampling was done for an intensive four-week period using both litter samples and pitfall traps. A total of 5613 spiders representing 83 species from 16 families was collected. Spiders were affected by the presence of logs, as both species diversity and total number of individuals collected were significantly higher on the log surface compared to the forest floor. Ordination analysis revealed a distinct compositional difference between the spider fauna found on the wood surface compared to the forest floor. Wood type and decomposition stage had few significant effects on spider assemblages, except that less decayed logs supported higher spider diversity than logs in advanced stages of decay. Dead wood is clearly important for generalist predators such as spiders, further supporting the conservation importance of fallen logs in northern forest ecosystems.