Spatial modeling of techno‐economic potential of biojet fuel production in Brazil

It is expected that Brazil could play an important role in biojet fuel (BJF) production in the future due to the long experience in biofuel production and the good agro‐ecological conditions. However, it is difficult to quantify the techno‐economic potential of BJF because of the high spatiotemporal variability of available land, biomass yield, and infrastructure as well as the technological developments in BJF production pathways. The objective of this research is to assess the recent and future techno‐economic potential of BJF production in Brazil and to identify location‐specific optimal combinations of biomass crops and technological conversion pathways. In total, 13 production routes (supply chains) are assessed through the combination of various biomass crops and BJF technologies. We consider temporal land use data to identify potential land availability for biomass production. With the spatial distribution of the land availability and potential yield of biomass crops, biomass production potential and costs are calculated. The BJF production cost is calculated by taking into account the development in the technological pathways and in plant scales. We estimate the techno‐economic potential by determining the minimum BJF total costs and comparing this with the range of fossil jet fuel prices. The techno‐economic potential of BJF production ranges from 0 to 6.4 EJ in 2015 and between 1.2 and 7.8 EJ in 2030, depending on the reference fossil jet fuel price, which varies from 19 to 65 US$/GJ across the airports. The techno‐economic potential consists of a diverse set of production routes. The Northeast and Southeast region of Brazil present the highest potentials with several viable production routes, whereas the remaining regions only have a few promising production routes. The maximum techno‐economic potential of BJF in Brazil could meet almost half of the projected global jet fuel demand toward 2030.     

How much heat can we grow in our cities? Modelling UK urban biofuel production potential

Biofuel provides a globally significant opportunity to reduce fossil fuel dependence; however, its sustainability can only be meaningfully explored for individual cases. It depends on multiple considerations including: life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, air quality impacts, food versus fuel trade‐offs, biodiversity impacts of land use change and socio‐economic impacts of energy transitions. One solution that may address many of these issues is local production of biofuel on non‐agricultural land. Urban areas drive global change, for example, they are responsible for 70% of global energy use, but are largely ignored in their resource production potential; however, underused urban greenspaces could be utilized for biofuel production near the point of consumption. This could avoid food versus fuel land conflicts in agricultural land and long‐distance transport costs, provide ecosystem service benefits to urban dwellers and increase the sustainability and resilience of cities and towns. Here, we use a Geographic Information System to identify urban greenspaces suitable for biofuel production, using exclusion criteria, in 10 UK cities. We then model production potential of three different biofuels: Miscanthus grass, short rotation coppice (SRC) willow and SRC poplar, within the greenspaces identified and extrapolate up to a UK‐scale. We demonstrate that approximately 10% of urban greenspace (3% of built‐up land) is potentially suitable for biofuel production. We estimate the potential of this to meet energy demand through heat generation, electricity and combined heat and power (CHP) operations. Our findings show that, if fully utilized, urban biofuel production could meet nearly a fifth of demand for biomass in CHP systems in the United Kingdom's climate compatible energy scenarios by 2030, with potentially similar implications for other comparable countries and regions.     

不同熟化措施对黑土母质发育的新成土壤有机碳库的影响

基于8年田间定位试验,采用土壤团聚体分组和闭蓄态微团聚体分离技术,将土壤有机质分为总粗颗粒有机质(活性碳库)、总细颗粒有机质(慢性碳库)和总粉黏粒(惰性碳库) 3个组分,探讨不同熟化措施对黑土母质发育而成的新成土壤总有机碳库及不同活性有机碳库的影响,为黑土严重侵蚀地区母质表露后土壤肥力的快速恢复提供依据。试验设置自然恢复(NatF)、苜蓿种植(Alfa)、无肥(F0C0)、化肥(F1C0)、低量有机肥与化肥配施(F1C1)、高量有机肥与化肥配施(F1C2)等6个熟化处理。结果表明:黑土母质经过8年不同熟化处理后,土壤总有机碳和各组分有机碳含量均显著提高;与NatF相比,有机肥与化肥配施(F1C2和F1C1)对土壤总有机碳的提升作用最为明显,增幅分别为60.7%和41.2%;Alfa其次,增幅18. 2%;F0C0或F1C0处理土壤总有机碳与NatF间无显著差异;F1C2和F1C1处理土壤3个组分有机碳含量均显著高于其他熟化处理,与F1C1相比,F1C2处理对各组分有机碳提升作用更为明显;与NatF相比,Alfa处理土壤有机碳的增加主要表现为粉黏粒结合有机碳的增加;F1C0和F0C0处理土壤总细颗粒有机质和总粉黏粒中有机碳与NatF间无显著差异,总粗颗粒有机质中有机碳含量低于NatF。研究表明,在米豆轮作和传统耕作体系下,农田生态系统高量有机物料投入配施化肥能够加速黑土母质的熟化进程,快速提高土壤中活性碳库和惰性碳库的容量,是严重退化黑土有机质快速提升的有效措施。     

国家公园规划制度功能定位与空间属性

我国将构建统一的国土空间规划体系, 整体谋划国土空间开发保护格局, 强化对各类专项规划的指导约束, 这必将对国家公园保护制度产生重大影响。本文分析了国土空间规划视角下国家公园规划制度的定位, 阐述了国家公园规划承载空间规划与发展规划两大体系的基本属性, 应在国土空间规划体系中具有优先权和前置权; 重点分析了各国家公园总体规划在国家规划体系中的功能与属性特征, 作为空间规划应承接好上位空间规划对国家公园的控制指标和管控要求, 作为建设规划应承接好上位或同域国民经济发展规划等对国家公园的目标任务要求, 作为管理规划要明确国家公园顺畅运行的要求。国家公园应在分区规划、控制性详细规划等专项规划方面寻求创新, 探索国家公园用途管制的实现模式。     

1980—2018年祁连山南坡土地利用变化及其驱动力

祁连山是我国第一阶梯和第二阶梯的分界线,生态环境脆弱,对过渡地带土地利用变化及其驱动力研究具有重要的生态意义。本研究以祁连山南坡为研究区,基于1980—2018年遥感影像数据,运用空间自相关分析法、ArcGIS空间分析方法和主成分分析法分析了土地利用的时空变化特征及其驱动力。结果表明: 1980—2018年,草地是研究区土地利用类型的主体,建设用地所占比重最小,水域、草地表现为下降趋势,未利用土地、建设用地和耕地均呈现出增长态势,林地变化较小。不同地类单一土地利用动态度从大到小依次为:建设用地＞水域＞耕地＞未利用土地＞林地＞草地,综合土地利用动态度为0.9%。不同土地利用类型空间分布表现出空间集聚性特征。耕地增加的区域和林地、草地减少的区域主要分布在门源县城所处大通河谷地西北侧,天峻县东北部大通河上游地区存在工矿建设用地占用草地的现象。土地利用变化驱动力主要为人口数量、科技、城市化、经济发展水平和政策。本研究结果可为政府合理规划和利用土地资源提供依据,对祁连山南坡生态环境保护和社会经济可持续发展具有重大意义。     

沙漠腹地天然绿洲胡杨和柽柳叶片δ13C值对不同地下水埋深的响应

干旱区植物的水分利用效率对植物的分布及水分利用状况具有重要意义。基于不同地下水埋深条件下沙漠腹地绿洲优势种胡杨和柽柳叶片δ¹³C值,分析了胡杨和柽柳的水分利用效率对不同地下水埋深的响应。结果表明: 随着地下水埋深由2.1 m增加到4.3 m,柽柳叶片的δ¹³C值先略有增加后处于较为稳定状态,柽柳采取较为稳定的水分利用效率适应干旱环境;胡杨叶片的δ¹³C值呈现先略有减小后增加的趋势,胡杨通过提高水分利用效率的策略适应干旱胁迫。同一地下水埋深条件下柽柳叶片的δ¹³C值高于胡杨叶片,表明柽柳的水分利用效率高于胡杨。     

格网尺度下青海玛多县土地利用及生态系统服务价值空间自相关分析

开展黄河源区土地利用和生态系统服务价值空间量化评估,对于保障黄河流域生态安全具有重要意义。以黄河源区玛多县为例,基于3 km×3 km网格单元,应用空间自相关方法构建生态系统服务价值评价模型,定量评价了2015年玛多县土地利用/覆被空间自相关格局特征,可视化表达了玛多县生态系统服务价值空间信息。结果表明: 在3 km×3 km格网尺度下,不同覆盖度草地覆盖范围广阔;水域网格占总网格数的42.9%,在玛多县西北部分布密集;建设用地呈东北-西南走向的“线条式”分布;未利用土地体现为西南多、东北少的分布格局。在空间上,玛多县土地利用类型网格之间相互影响,表现为正相关性和聚集分布。水域的全局Moran I和局部Moran I值均最大,空间聚集性最强,局部连片度较高。建设用地的全局Moran I和局部Moran I值分别为0.293和0.127,空间自相关性最弱,在小范围内呈聚集特点。2015年,玛多县生态系统服务价值(ESV)为938.87亿元,网格的ESV平均值为3.20×10⁷元,最大值为19.96×10⁷元,水域分布网格是ESV的高值区。玛多县ESV分布格局整体上呈显著的空间正向自相关,ESV在网格之间为聚集分布。不同土地利用类型ESV网格总体呈高高、低低聚集,在局部零星为高低、低高聚集。可采取的国土空间规划与用途管制策略包括:水域、未利用土地采用强调生态溢出价值的“集中连片式”保护模式,高、中、低覆盖度草地采取主次分明、划区管理的“组团式”生态治理模式,建设用地在“廊道式”分布格局中采取小范围集约化开发利用模式。     

急性脑梗死并发肺部感染患者预后及危险因素分析

目的分析急性脑梗死并发肺部感染患者病原菌分布、病原菌耐药性、患者用药特征及其危险因素。方法选取2015年3月至2017年3月在我院急诊科进行住院治疗,且年龄60岁的急性脑梗死并发肺部感染患者60例为研究对象,对患者的一般资料及病原菌分布情况、耐药情况和患者用药情况进行分析。结果 60例患者中有30例出现肺部感染,感染率为50.00%。肺部感染患者中死亡4例。肺部感染患者痰液中共培养出28株病原菌,其中革兰阴性菌21株,革兰阳性菌5株,真菌2株。30例肺部感染患者共使用6种抗感染药物,其中哌拉西林/舒巴坦的使用频率最高,其次为依替米星及美罗培南。Logistic回归分析显示,病原菌分布、耐药情况和患者用药情况与患者的预后存在相关性。结论急性脑梗死并发肺部感染患者的病原菌分布、耐药情况及患者用药情况与患者的预后密切相关,应针对上述因素给予患者合理的治疗。     

Cannot see the diversity for all the species: Evaluating inclusion criteria for local species lists when using abundant citizen science data

Abundant citizen science data on species occurrences are becoming increasingly available and enable identifying composition of communities occurring at multiple sites with high temporal resolution. However, for species displaying temporary patterns of local occurrences that are transient to some sites, biodiversity measures are clearly dependent on the criteria used to include species into local species lists. Using abundant opportunistic citizen science data from frequently visited wetlands, we investigated the sensitivity of α‐ and β‐diversity estimates to the use raw versus detection‐corrected data and to the use of inclusion criteria for species presence reflecting alternative site use. We tested seven inclusion criteria (with varying number of days required to be present) on time series of daily occurrence status during a breeding season of 90 days for 77 wetland bird species. We show that even when opportunistic presence‐only observation data are abundant, raw data may not produce reliable local species richness estimates and rank sites very differently in terms of species richness. Furthermore, occupancy model based α‐ and β‐diversity estimates were sensitive to the inclusion criteria used. Total species lists (all species observed at least once during a season) may therefore mask diversity differences among sites in local communities of species, by including vagrant species on potentially breeding communities and change the relative rank order of sites in terms of species richness. Very high sampling effort does not necessarily free opportunistic data from its inherent bias and can produce a pattern in which many species are observed at least once almost everywhere, thus leading to a possible paradox: The large amount of biological information may hinder its usefulness. Therefore, when prioritizing among sites to manage or preserve species diversity estimates need to be carefully related to relevant inclusion criteria depending on the diversity estimate in focus.     

Relationship between aquifer biofilms and unattached microbial indicators of urban groundwater contamination

Aquifers, springs and other groundwater‐dependent ecosystems are threatened by urban land use, which causes water quality deterioration through nutrient loading, sewage infiltration, groundwater extraction and, along coasts, seawater intrusion. The presence of certain microbes in groundwater can indicate that an aquifer is anthropogenically contaminated. Interpretations made from observations of indicator microbes in groundwater are limited because the relationship between the presumably allochthonous indicator microbes and relevant autochthonous microbial communities has not been characterized. This study addressed whether autochthonous aquifer biofilms can influence the presence of presumed microbial indicators in groundwater, and simultaneously used microbial indicators to trace sources of urban contamination at a karst spring of conservation concern. These questions were approached using a 17‐month time series analysis of attached biofilm and adjacent unattached bacteria in the submerged karst aquifer conduit associated with this spring. Environmental 16S rRNA gene sequencing was performed to characterize these communities, and community structure data were contextualized with groundwater geochemical and hydrogeological measurements. Linear regression models were developed to explain the relative abundance patterns of indicator microbes and other unattached microbes at this site. The results of this study suggest that dominant aquifer biofilms do not influence the presence of unattached microbial taxa that are presumed to be indicators of groundwater contamination, and generated new information about the origin of coliform bacteria at the study site. These results build confidence in the use of microbial indicators in groundwater‐dependent ecosystem conservation strategies and inform future management plans for urban aquifers and springs worldwide.