Farms,pastures and woodlands: the fine‐scale distribution of Palearctic Culicoides spp. biting midges along an agro‐ecological gradient

The spatial epidemiology of Bluetongue virus (BTV) at the landscape level relates to the fine‐scale distribution and dispersal capacities of its vectors, midges belonging to the genus Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Although many previous researches have carried out Culicoides sampling on farms, little is known of the fine‐scale distribution of Culicoides in the landscape immediately surrounding farms. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of Culicoides populations at increasing distances from typical dairy farms in north‐west Europe, through the use of eight Onderstepoort‐type black‐light traps positioned along linear transects departing from farms, going through pastures and entering woodlands. A total of 16 902 Culicoides were collected in autumn 2008 and spring 2009. The majority were females, of which more than 97% were recognized as potential vectors. In pastures, we found decreasing numbers of female Culicoides as a function of the distance to the farm. This pattern was modelled by leptokurtic models, with parameters depending on season and species. By contrast, the low number of male Culicoides caught were homogeneously distributed along the transects. When transects entered woodlands, we found a higher abundance of Culicoides than expected considering the distance of the sampling sites to the farm, although this varied according to species.     

Algal Population Growth Model Integrated with Toxicokinetics for Ecological Risk Assessment under Time-Varying Pesticide Exposure

An algal population growth model integrated with toxicokinetics was developed for assessing the effect of pesticides on population dynamics. This model is a simple one-compartment, first-order kinetic model in which toxicity (growth inhibition and mortality) depends on the intracellular effective concentration of a pesticide at a target site. The model's parameters were derived using an experimental study that investigated the effects of pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl, pentoxazone, and quinoclamine on the growth, mortality, and subsequent population recovery of the green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata. Modeled and measured trajectories of algal population dynamics agreed well. The effect on population recovery was underestimated by the model that ignored the toxicokinetics. The four tested herbicides had a variety of toxicity characteristics and physicochemical properties, indicating the wide range of the model's applicability. Moreover, the developed model and the obtained model's parameters were extrapolated to predict long-term algal population dynamics under time-varying herbicide exposure. The calculated integral biomass lost compared with the control was considered a quantitative index of the population-level ecological risk. The model's prediction showed that the same exposure level (peak concentration is equivalent to EC50) indicated much different population-level effect depending on the herbicide.     

The impacts of agricultural payments on groundwater quality: Spatial analysis on the case of Slovenia

The European Common Agricultural Policy still follows its primary goals, i.e. quality food at affordable prices and a decent standard of living for farmers, fifty years after its adoption. Moreover, this policy adapts to the changing needs of society and the new challenges, mostly preservation of the environment, nature and biodiversity in rural areas. Although the Common Agricultural Policy receives the largest share of European budget, the funds are decreasing over time, especially direct payments, which aim to provide basic income support to farmers in the European Union. On the other hand, agri-environmental payments are gaining importance. Policy decision-makers should be interested in the question of impacts of growing eco-conditionality of agricultural spending. New insights would help them to be successful in achieving the goals of sustainable agriculture. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of production support payments and rural development payments on the quality of groundwater. We use the small EU country Slovenia as an example. The baseline indicators are the level of nitrates and pesticides in groundwater, while the impacts were estimated using spatial error model. The results show that direct payments, coupled subsidies and investment grants raise the level of pesticides in groundwater, but do not have any statistically significant impact on the level of nitrates in groundwater. Furthermore, we did not find any statistically significant effects of agri-environmental payments on decrease of groundwater pollution with nitrates. However, our findings revealed that agri-environmental payments are effective in reducing pesticides in groundwater, although only to a limited extent. These results imply a problem of insufficient targeting of agri-environmental measures on the one hand, and suggest that greening of direct payments is necessary and entirely justified.     

Wildcat population density in NE Portugal: A regional stronghold for a nationally threatened felid

Population density data on depleted and endangered wildlife species are essential to assure their effective management and, ultimately, conservation. The European wildcat is an elusive and threatened species inhabiting the Iberian Peninsula, with fragmented populations and living in low densities. We fitted spatial capture–recapture models on camera-trap data, to provide the first estimate of wildcat density for Portugal and assess the most influential drivers determining it. The study was implemented in Montesinho Natural Park (NE Portugal), where we identified nine individuals, over a total effort of 3,477 trap-nights. The mean density estimate was 0.032 ± 0.012 wildcat/km², and density tended to increase with distance to humanized areas, often linked to lower human disturbance and domestic cat presence, with forest and herbaceous vegetation cover and with European rabbit abundance. Although, this density estimate is within the range of values estimated for protected areas elsewhere in the Iberian Peninsula, our estimates are low at the European level. When put in context, our results highlight that European wildcats may be living in low population densities across the Iberian Mediterranean biogeographic region. No phenotypic domestic or hybrid cats were detected, suggesting potentially low admixture rates between the two species, although genetic sampling would be required to corroborate this assertion. We provide evidence that Montesinho Natural Park may be a suitable area to host a healthy wildcat population, and thus be an important protected area in this species' conservation context.     

Modelling HIV immune response and validation with clinical data

A system of ordinary differential equations is formulated to describe the pathogenesis of HIV infection, wherein certain features that have been shown to be important by recent experimental research are incorporated in the model. These include the role of CD4+memory cells that serve as a major reservoir of latently infected cells, a critical role for T-helper cells in the generation of CD8 memory cells capable of efficient recall response, and stimulation by antigens other than HIV. A stability analysis illustrates the capability of this model in admitting multiple locally asymptotically stable (locally a.s.) off-treatment equilibria. We show that this more biologically detailed model can exhibit the phenomenon of transient viremia experienced by some patients on therapy with viral load levels suppressed below the detection limit. We also show that the loss of CD4+T-cell help in the generation of CD8+memory cells leads to larger peak values for the viral load during transient viremia. Censored clinical data is used to obtain parameter estimates. We demonstrate that using a reduced set of 16 free parameters, obtained by fixing some parameters at their population averages, the model provides reasonable fits to the patient data and, moreover, that it exhibits good predictive capability. We further show that parameter values obtained for most clinical patients do not admit multiple locally a.s off-treatment equilibria. This suggests that treatment to move from a high viral load equilibrium state to an equilibrium state with a lower (or zero) viral load is not possible for these patients.     

Correction of a bootstrap approach to testing for evolution along lines of least resistance

Testing for an association between the leading vectors of multivariate trait (co)variation within populations (the ‘line of least resistance’) and among populations is an important tool for exploring variational bias in evolution. In a recent study of stickleback fish populations, a bootstrap‐based test was introduced that takes into account estimation error in both vectors and hence improves the previously available bootstrap method. Because this test was implemented incorrectly, however, I here describe the correct test protocol and provide a reanalysis of the original data set. The application of this new test protocol should improve future investigations of evolution along lines of least resistance and other vector comparisons.     

Long‐term population dynamics of a coral reef gastropod and responses to disturbance

The age‐specific density of the red‐lipped stromb Strombus luhuanus (Mollusca: Gastropoda) was monitored over 13 years (1981–1993) at four locations on the intertidal reef flat at Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef. Densities were highly variable, but there were persistent, location‐specific differences in population density, age structure and adult body size, the latter indicating that the populations were not extensively linked by adult movement. There was relatively high recruitment at most locations in 1984, 1989 and 1993, each occurring approximately 2 years after El Niño/Southern Oscillation events, although recruit density during these years varied in both space and time. The studied strombs experienced three disturbance events: (i) experimental harvesting at two locations (1984–1985); (ii) siltation from a harbour dredging operation (1987–1988); and (iii) a severe cyclone (1992). Resilience to harvesting at a local scale (0.5–2 ha) was high: density had recovered within a year, due to immigration of adults and older juveniles. Strombus luhuanus responded much more strongly to broad‐scale changes to its environment than to localized harvesting. After dredging, there was a progressive density decline coupled with low recruitment at two locations, and a later decline at a third location, followed by a recruitment‐driven rebound after the cyclone. Generalized environmental effects of siltation and the cyclone were also reflected in substantial changes in algal cover. Long‐term variations in environmental conditions probably cause high temporal variation over large spatial scales through effects on the survival of larvae or recruits. Localized short‐term field monitoring of such species would give a misleading picture of key factors affecting population dynamics.