Assessment of Optimal Selected Prognostic Factors

The identification and assessment of prognostic factors is one of the major tasks in clinical research. The assessment of one single prognostic factor can be done by recently established methods for using optimal cutpoints. Here, we suggest a method to consider an optimal selected prognostic factor from a set of prognostic factors of interest. This can be viewed as a variable selection method and is the underlying decision problem at each node of various tree building algorithms. We propose to use maximally selected statistics where the selection is defined over the set of prognostic factors and over all cutpoints in each prognostic factor. We demonstrate that it is feasible to compute the approximate null distribution. We illustrate the new variable selection test with data of the German Breast Cancer Study Group and of a small study on patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma. Using the null distribution for a p‐value adjusted regression trees algorithm, we adjust for the number of variables analysed at each node as well. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Preference and performance of the hyperparasitoid Syrphophagus aphidivorus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae): fitness consequences of selecting hosts in live aphids or aphid mummies

Abstract.  1. Theoretical models predict that ovipositional decisions of parasitoid females should lead to the selection of the most profitable host for parasitoid development. Most parasitoid species have evolved specific adaptations to exploit a single host stage. However, females of the aphid hyperparasitoid Syrphophagous aphidivorus (Mayr) (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) display a unique and atypical oviposition behaviour by attacking either primary parasitoid larvae in live aphids, or parasitoid pupae in dead, mummified aphids.
2. In the laboratory, the correlation between host suitability and host preference of S. aphidivorus on the host Aphidius nigripes Ashmead parasitising the aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Thomas) was investigated.
3. The relative suitability of the two host stages was determined by measuring hyperparasitoid fitness parameters (survival, development time, fecundity, sex ratio, and adult size of progeny), and calculating the intrinsic rate of population increase ( r _m). Host preference by S. aphidivorus females and the influence of aphid defence behaviour on host selection was also examined.
4. Hyperparasitoid offspring performance was highest when developing from hosts in aphid mummies and females consistently preferred this host to hosts in parasitised aphids. Although aphid defensive behaviour may influence host selection, it was not a determining factor. Ecological and evolutionary processes that might have led to dual oviposition behaviour in S. aphidivorus are discussed.     

Conditional and Unconditional Simulation of Healthy Patients' Visual Fields

This paper describes a simulation problem, motivated by the study of glaucoma, a very serious and widespread ocular illness. To ascertain whether a patient suffers from glaucoma, a perimetric test is done, but the evolution of the disease is very slow, and large longitudinal sets of tests taken on the same patient are needed to study its evolution, to analyze the efficiency of existing methods to detect the progression of glaucoma and to develop new ones. Simulation can be a very useful procedure to get appropriate data sets to work with. Our aim in this work is to simulate several VFs in a healthy patient to reflect his evolution in time. We use a spatio‐temporal model to simulate from, taking into account the correlation existing between the observed (or simulated) values in space and time. Two different simulation procedures (unconditional and conditional) are studied, and applied to obtain the simulations we are interested in. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Reaction mechanism of surfactant‐sensitized chemiluminescence of bis(2,4,6‐trichlorophyenyl) oxalate and hydrogen peroxide induced by gold nanoparticles

The chemiluminescence (CL) of bis(2,4,6‐trichlorophyenyl) oxalate with hydrogen peroxide in the present of cationic surfactant and gold nanoparticles was studied. The CL emission was obviously enhanced in the presence of surfactant at a suitable concentration, with a synergetic catalysis effect exhibited. Different sizes of gold nanoparticles (15 and 50 nm) showed different effects on CL intensity. Mechanisms of the CL reaction and sensitization effect are discussed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

LIFE HISTORY AND GROWTH OF LAURENCIA BRACHYCLADOS (RHODOPHYTA,CERAMIALES)1

Laurencia brachyclados Pilger from Hawai'i completed a “Polysiphonia-type” tri-phasic life history in 21 weeks in laboratory culture. Tetraspores developed into gametophytes in a nearly 1:1:1 ratio of females: males: non-reproductive. Carpospores were released as early as 21 days after mixing virgin female and male gametophytes. Cultured thalli showed a “guerilla type” growth form. Other Hawaiian Laurencia species in culture had longer maturation times or remained non-reproductive. Variation in life history schedules may influence Laurencia species coexistence and algal community structure.     

Female‐biased migration of stream‐dwelling Dolly Varden in the Shiisorapuchi River, Hokkaido, Japan

The first evidence for female‐biased migration in a partially migratory stream‐dwelling salmonid the Dolly Varden Salvelinus malma , a phenomenon well known in sea‐run and lake‐run populations, is presented. Dolly Varden in the Shiisorapuchi River in central Hokkaido, Japan, used both tributaries, of which there are many, and the main stem, but spawned only in tributaries. The size structures of Dolly Varden (≥age 1 + years) in tributaries were unimodal (<100 mm fork length, L _F) during non‐spawning seasons but changed to bimodal during spawning seasons (lower mode <110 mm, upper mode >120 mm L _F). Mature individuals were observed in both modal groups. From the trapping and census data, the small group appeared to be tributary resident and the large group main stem migrant. Males were common in both resident and migrant components. Most females, however, migrated to the main stem to mature, indicating female‐biased migration.     

A Rare, Larval-founded Colony of the Bryozoan Archimedes from the Carboniferous of Alabama

Very few basal attachments of the spiralled fenestrate bryozoan Archimedes are known. A newly discovered specimen is interpreted to have grown on a thin cylindrical ephemeral substratum that extended above the sediment-water interface, allowing paired spirals to develop and to extend in opposite directions when the colony was very small.     

Integrated palaeoecological and historical data in the service of fine-resolution land use and ecological change assessment during the last 1000 years in Rõuge, southern Estonia

Aims Our aim is to reconstruct decadal scale development of historical landscapes during the last 1000 years by means of fossil pollen analysis of annually laminated lake sediments, and detailed historical maps and documents. Location Lake Rõuge Tõugjärv (Estonia), a small lake with annually laminated lake sediments situated in a dense prehistoric setting. Methods The chronology of the palaeodata is based on the annual laminations supported by AMS ¹⁴C and ²¹⁰Pb dating and ¹³⁷Cs, ²⁴¹Am, and spheroidal carbonaceous particle marker horizons. The time‐scale and resolution allows fine sampling (the pollen samples generally comprise 3.5 years) and vegetation change reconstruction. Relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) of the lake was estimated, and the statistical zonation, rate of change, palynological richness, and DCA and PCA ordinations were generated on the basis of the pollen data. The historical calibration data set (maps, numerical information on population, domestic stock, farmland division, etc.) is based on archival material preserved in the Estonian Historical Archives. Results The topmost part (0–180 cm) of the sediment column of Lake Rõuge Tõugjärv, covering the last 1000 years, is visibly laminated carbonaceous gyttja. The varve chronology extends from ad 2000 to ad 1339, with a cumulative ± 9‐year error estimate. Beyond this the chronology is extrapolated using the ¹⁴C date and varve age–depth estimations. The simulation of the RSAP of Lake Tõugjärv shows that the major portion of the pollen loading originating from local vegetation is derived from plants growing within 2000 m of the sampling site. The pollen record divides into five statistically significant subgroups, which fall on the PCA plot into three clusters reflecting the general openness–closedness of the landscape. During the period between ad 1000 and 1200 (RT 1) the Rõuge area was generally wooded with birch, spruce and pine forests. The advancement of extensive farming gradually opened up the landscape between ad 1200 and 1650 (RT 2 and RT 3). The maximum openness of the landscape was reached between ad 1650 and 1875 (RT 4), with the most open period in the late eighteenth century. Historical maps from 1684 and 1870–99 and available quantitative data on population, domestic stock, farmland division, etc. show the same trend. The pollen data covering the last 125 years, and maps from 1935 and 1995, show the reduction of arable land in RSAP of the lake under investigation and the reduction of open land to an extent comparable with the end of the seventeenth century. Main conclusions The formation and development of the cultural landscape at Rõuge over the last 1000 years is characterized by rapid changes in floristic richness and rates of vegetation change attributed to certain historic processes in the RSAP. Five phases of landscape and social development are clearly distinguished during the last 1000 years. The decadal scale vegetation response to human‐induced forcing agrees with historical maps and documents and could be used for past landscapes prior to the period with solid historical data.