A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks

Epidemic dynamics pose a great challenge to stochastic modelling because chance events are major determinants of the size and the timing of the outbreak. Reintroduction of the disease through contact with infected individuals from other areas is an important latent stochastic variable. In this study we model these stochastic processes to explain extinction and recurrence of epidemics observed in measles. We develop estimating functions for such a model and apply the methodology to temporal case counts of measles in 60 cities in England and Wales. In order to estimate the unobserved spatial contact process we suggest a method based on stochastic simulation and marginal densities. The estimation results show that it is possible to consider a unified model for the UK cities where the parameters depend on the city size. Stochastic realizations from the dynamic model realistically capture the transitions from an endemic cyclic pattern in large populations to irregular epidemic outbreaks in small human host populations.     

Characterisation of Cydia pomonella granulovirus from codling moths in a laboratory colony and in orchards of British Columbia*

Sequence analyses indicate that a granulovirus isolated from a laboratory colony of codling moth in British Columbia, Canada is identical or very similar to the Mexican isolate of Cydia pomonella granulovirus (CpGV-M). In addition to codling moth, the vims was found to cause mortality of secondary leafroller pests of North American orchards, including the fruit tree leafroller and the obliquebanded leafroller. A survey in apple growing regions of British Columbia indicates that 23% of the wild population of codling moth larvae carry CpGV.     

Race non-specific resistance to Bremia lactucae

Three ways of measuring race non-specific resistance to Bremia lactucae in lettuce were studied to determine the most important components of this form of resistance. Tests were conducted on leaf discs from 4–6 wk-old plants that were quantitatively inoculated and incubated under controlled conditions. Observations were made of disease intensity, latent period and production of conidia. Inoculum concentration markedly influenced disease intensity and latent period. Cv. Iceberg exhibited race non-specific resistance and this was characterised by a longer latent period, a lower disease intensity and reduced production of conidia compared to the susceptible control cv. Cobham Green. On older, intact plants, the differences in latent period and disease intensity between cultivars were even greater. Production of conidia was a particularly good criterion for discriminating levels of resistance.     

Day-to-day variation in nitrogenase activity of Alnus incana explained by weather variables: a multivariate time series analysis

A modelling system is described that indicates the extent to which day-to-day variations in nitrogenase activity in young Alnus incana (L.) Moench, grown in defined conditions in the field, may be affected by weather conditions both during and prior to the day of measurement. Nitrogenase activity (acetylene reduction activity, ARA) was measured weekly on intact field-grown grey alder (A. incana) plants, 0.15–0.42 m tall at planting, nodulated with Frankia. The measurements were done at noon on two groups of plants in 1987 and on two other groups in 1988. Each group was made up of five or six plants. Seven weather variables: daily sunshine hours, daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, daily mean and 1300 h relative humidity, and daily rainfall were used. The relation between log(ARA/leaf area) and the weather variables were analysed using a PLS model (partial least squares projection to latent structures). The advantage of PLS is that it can handle x-variables that are correlated. Data from 1987 were chosen as a training set. Multivariate PLS time series analysis was made by adding, in a stepwise manner, the weather data up to 5 d before the day of measurement. This procedure gave six models with n * 7 x-variables (n= 1–6). With the models from the time series analysis of 1987 data, true predictions of ARA per leaf area were made from weather data 1988 (test set 1) and from ‘early-season’ weather data from 1987 and 1988 (test set 2). The variation in ARA/leaf area could be predicted from the weather conditions. The predictions of the two test sets improved when the weather conditions one and two days before the day of measurements were added to the model. The further addition of weather data from 3 to 5 d before the day of measurement did not improve the model. The good predictions of ARA/leaf area show that the alders responded to the variable weather conditions in the same way in 1988 as in 1987, despite the ten-fold difference in size (leaf area) at the end of the growing season. Among the weather variables, air temperature and the daily sunshine hours were positively correlated to ARA, while relative air humidity and rainfall were negatively correlated to ARA. The daily minimum temperature and rainfall appeared to have least impact on ARA. By use of PLS, we could extract information out of a data set containing highly correlated x-variables, information that is non-accessible with conventional statistical tools such as multiple regression. When making measurements of nitrogenase activities under field conditions, we propose that attention should be paid to the weather conditions on the days preceding the day of measurement. The day-to-day variation in nitrogenase activity is discussed with reference to known effects of stress factors under controlled conditions.     

Micropropagation of garlic through in vitro bulblet formation

We developed a novel micropropagation method for garlic (Allium sativum L.) by the combination of initial shoot-tip culture, shoot multiplication and in vitro bulblet formation. Garlic shoot-tips were cultured on LS medium containing 1 M indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) and 1 M 6-benzyladenine (BA) to regenerate proliferative shoots. These shoot-tips produced multiple shoots when transferred to modified LS medium containing 5 M 1-naphthaleneacetic acid (NAA) and 10 M BA, and cultured at 20°C under 12-h light conditions. Higher ratios of KNO₃/NH₄Cl in the media promoted multiple shoot formation, together with suppressing vitrification of these shoots. The proliferated shoots of early maturing cultivars produced bulblets by culture on LS growth regulator-free medium at 25°C under 16-h light. On the other hand, the late maturing cultivar, Howaito-roppen, formed bulblets after a low temperature treatment of the proliferated shoots for 6 months followed by culture on LS medium containing 6 to 12% sucrose for two months. The dormancy of the bulblets of cv. Howaito-roppen was broken by successive treatments at a high (35°C), a middle (20°C), and then a low (5°C) temperature.Abbreviations IAA indole-3-acetic acid - NAA 1-naphthaleneacetic acid - BA 6-benzyladenine - LS Linsmaier and Skoog macro- and microelements     

Critical Amino Acid Variants in HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 Allotypes in the Development of Classical Type 1 Diabetes and Latent Autoimmune Diabetes in Adults in the Japanese Population

The effects of amino acid variants encoded by the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II on the development of classical type 1 diabetes (T1D) and latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA) have not been fully elucidated. We retrospectively investigated the HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 genes of 72 patients with classical T1D and 102 patients with LADA in the Japanese population and compared the frequencies of HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 alleles between these patients and the Japanese populations previously reported by another institution. We also performed a blind association analysis with all amino acid positions in classical T1D and LADA, and compared the associations of HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 amino acid positions in classical T1D and LADA. The frequency of DRß-Phe-13 was significantly higher and those of DRß-Arg-13 and DQß-Gly-70 were significantly lower in patients with classical T1D and LADA than in controls. The frequencies of DRß-His-13 and DQß-Glu-70 were significantly higher in classical T1D patients than in controls. The frequency of DRß-Ser-13 was significantly lower and that of DQß-Arg-70 was significantly higher in LADA patients than in controls. HLA-DRß1 position 13 and HLA-DQß1 position 70 could be critical amino acid positions in the development of classical T1D and LADA.     

Hydrazo Pyrazole-Pyridone Fluorescent tag for NLO,Live cell imaging,LFPs visualization,Photophysical probing,and Electrochemical sensor for Dopamine detection

The present communication reports on the synthesis of a novel methyl-pyridone azo fluorescent tag (MPAFT) were proven through ¹H (NMR), FT-IR, UV–vis, and high-resolution mass spectrometry. The quantum chemical parameters of MPAFT were evaluated using density functional theory (DFT) analysis. It was further investigated for its latent fingerprint (LFPs) in various surfaces and anticounterfeiting applications. By exposing Level I–Level III, ridge features to UV light with a wavelength of 365 nm, a bioimaging investigation has also demonstrated the potential of MPAFT's emission behaviour. The cyclic voltammetry (CV) and linear sweep voltammetry (LSV) at MPAFT/MGCE (modified glassy carbon electrode) were used to explore the electrochemical sensitivity and reliable detection of dopamine (DA) in neutral PBS (pH 7) electrolyte solution, and the results show good sensitivity and detection. The lower detection limit for LSV was 0.81 μM under optimum conditions.     

Real-time PCR detection of Biscogniauxia mediterranea in symptomless oak tissue

AIMS: Real-time PCR, based on TaqMan chemistry, was used to detect Biscogniauxia mediterranea, a fungal pathogen that after a long endophytic phase may cause charcoal disease in oak trees. METHODS AND RESULTS: Specific primers and probe were designed and tested on axenic cultures of B. mediterranea and other fungi commonly colonizing oaks. Twig samples were collected in Tuscany from apparently healthy oaks (Quercus cerris, Quercus ilex and Quercus pubescens) growing near trees infected with the fungus. Twigs were divided into two groups: one for isolation in agar plates, and one for real-time PCR after DNA extraction. The detection limit of the assay was 0.01 pg/DNA, whereas the amounts of fungal DNA detected in asymptomatic tissue were >0.5 pg microg(-1) total DNA extracted. In the apparently healthy twigs the frequency of isolation found on agar was 25.0%, much lower than that with real-time PCR (96.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Real-time PCR is a sensitive and fast technique able to specifically detect and quantify the DNA of B. mediterranea in oak tissue. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This diagnostic method is a precise tool to localize fungi in symptomless plant tissues and promises to advance our understanding of fungal infection during their latent phase.     

Regulation of survivin and CDK4 by Epstein-Barr virus encoded latent membrane protein 1 in nasopharyngeal carcinoma cell lines

Latent membrane protein 1 （LMP1）, an important protein encoded by Epstein Barr virus （EBV）, has been implied to link with the pathogenesis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma （NPC）. Its dual effects of increasing cell proliferation and inhibiting cell apoptosis have been confirmed. In this study, we showed that the expression of Survivin and CDK4 protein in CNE-LMP1, a LMP1 positive NPC epithelial cell line, is higher than in LMP1 negative NPC epithelial cell line- CNE1, and the expression is LMP1 dosage-dependent. Although it was reported that Survivin specifically expressed in cell cycle G2/M phase, our studies suggested that LMP1 could promote the expression of Survivin in G0/G1, S and G2/ M phase. It also showed that Survivin and CDK4 could be accumulated more in the nuclei triggered by LMP1. More interestingly, Survivin and CDK4 could form a protein complex in the nuclei of CNE-LMP1 rather than in that of CNE1, which demonstrated that the interaction between these two proteins could be promoted by LMPI. These results strongly suggested that the role of LMP1 in the regulation of Survivin and CDK4 may also shed some light on the mechanism research of LMP1 in NPC.     

Epstein-Barr virus-encoded latent membrane protein 1 modulates cyclin D1 by c-Jun/Jun B heterodimers

In our recent studies, we found that LMP1 encoded by Epstein-Barr virus could accelerate the formation of active c-Jun/Jun B heterodimer. We studied the regulation of cyclinD1 by c-Jun/Jun B heterodimers by laser scanning confocal influorescence microscopy, Western blot, luciferase activity assay, super-EMSA and flow cytometry in the Tet-on-LMP1 HNE2 cell line, in which LMP1 expression was regulated by Tet-on system. c-Jun/Jun B heterodimers induced by LMP1 could up regulate cyclin D1 promoter activity and expression. Overexpression of cyclinD1 accelerated the progression of cell cycle.