Lethal mutagenesis and evolutionary epidemiology

The lethal mutagenesis hypothesis states that within-host populations of pathogens can be driven to extinction when the load of deleterious mutations is artificially increased with a mutagen, and becomes too high for the population to be maintained. Although chemical mutagens have been shown to lead to important reductions in viral titres for a wide variety of RNA viruses, the theoretical underpinnings of this process are still not clearly established. A few recent models sought to describe lethal mutagenesis but they often relied on restrictive assumptions. We extend this earlier work in two novel directions. First, we derive the dynamics of the genetic load in a multivariate Gaussian fitness landscape akin to classical quantitative genetics models. This fitness landscape yields a continuous distribution of mutation effects on fitness, ranging from deleterious to beneficial (i.e. compensatory) mutations. We also include an additional class of lethal mutations. Second, we couple this evolutionary model with an epidemiological model accounting for the within-host dynamics of the pathogen. We derive the epidemiological and evolutionary equilibrium of the system. At this equilibrium, the density of the pathogen is expected to decrease linearly with the genomic mutation rate U. We also provide a simple expression for the critical mutation rate leading to extinction. Stochastic simulations show that these predictions are accurate for a broad range of parameter values. As they depend on a small set of measurable epidemiological and evolutionary parameters, we used available information on several viruses to make quantitative and testable predictions on critical mutation rates. In the light of this model, we discuss the feasibility of lethal mutagenesis as an efficient therapeutic strategy.     

Bird communities in traditional wood-pastures with changing management in Eastern Europe

Wood-pastures are fragile ecosystems because they were formed by, and depend on specific, low-intensity multifunctional management. Although their ecological and cultural significance is high, wood-pastures are rapidly deteriorating all over Europe, mainly due to changing land use. We still lack a basic understanding of the ecological value of wood-pastures, and in which features they differ from other landscape elements. In this paper we investigated the ecological value of wood-pastures for passerine birds by (i) comparing bird assemblages of wood-pastures with those of closed forests and open pastures and (ii) exploring the relationships between variables describing wood-pastures and species traits of the bird assemblages. Our study region (Southern Transylvania, Romania) provides a unique opportunity to understand the importance of a traditional cultural and ecological environment for many different organisms. Wood-pastures had a higher overall number of bird species, and a higher spatial turnover in bird community composition than closed forests and open pastures. We found significant associations between bird species traits and habitat structural elements in wood-pastures such as large trees, oak- and pear trees and shrubs. Our findings suggest that traditional wood-pastures in Southern Transylvania have distinct and rich passerine bird communities. This richness is inextricably linked to the multifunctional, low-intensity land use traditionally applied in the wood-pastures that promotes high niche diversity. For effective conservation of the biodiversity of wood-pastures, a detailed understanding is needed of how different management regimes may influence the key structural elements of wood-pastures relevant for biodiversity and these should be protected.     

Landscape structure influences tree density patterns in fragmented woodlands in semi‐arid eastern Australia

Landscape and local‐scale influences are important drivers of plant community structure. However, their relative contribution and the degree to which they interact remain unclear. We quantified the extent to which landscape structure, within‐patch habitat and their confounding effects determine post‐clearing tree densities and composition in agricultural landscapes in eastern subtropical Australia. Landscape structure (incorporating habitat fragmentation and loss) and within‐patch (site) features were quantified for 60 remnant patches of Eucalyptus populnea (Myrtaceae) woodland. Tree density and species for three ecological maturity classes (regeneration, early maturity, late maturity) and local site features were assessed in one 100 × 10 m plot per patch. All but one landscape characteristic was determined within a 1.3‐km radius of plots; Euclidean nearest neighbour distance was measured inside a 5‐km radius. Variation in tree density and composition for each maturity class was partitioned into independent landscape, independent site and joint effects of landscape and site features using redundancy analysis. Independent site effects explained more variation in regeneration density and composition than pure landscape effects; significant predictors were the proportion of early and late maturity trees at a site, rainfall and the associated interaction. Conversely, landscape structure explained greater variation in early and late maturity tree density and composition than site predictors. Area of remnant native vegetation within a landscape and patch characteristics (area, shape, edge contrast) were significant predictors of early maturity tree density. However, 31% of the explained variation in early mature tree differences represented confounding influences of landscape and local variables. We suggest that within‐patch characteristics are important in influencing semi‐arid woodland tree regeneration. However, independent and confounding effects of landscape structure resulting from previous vegetation clearing may have exerted a greater historical influence on older cohorts and should be accounted for when examining woodland dynamics across a broader range of environments.     

Characterizing the spatial distribution of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in fragmented forest landscapes

Aim To examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the distribution of the entire wild giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population, and to propose a modelling approach for monitoring the spatial distribution and habitat of pandas at the landscape scale using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro‐radiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time‐series data. Location Five mountain ranges in south‐western China (Qinling, Minshan, Qionglai, Xiangling and Liangshan). Methods Giant panda pseudo‐absence data were generated from data on panda occurrences obtained from the third national giant panda survey. To quantify the fragmentation of forests, 26 fragmentation metrics were derived from 16‐day composite MODIS 250‐m EVI multi‐temporal data and eight of these metrics were selected following factor analysis. The differences between panda presence and panda absence were examined by applying significance testing. A forward stepwise logistic regression was then applied to explore the relationship between panda distribution and forest fragmentation. Results Forest patch size, edge density and patch aggregation were found to have significant roles in determining the distribution of pandas. Patches of dense forest occupied by giant pandas were significantly larger, closer together and more contiguous than patches where giant pandas were not recorded. Forest fragmentation is least in the Qinling Mountains, while the Xiangling and Liangshan regions have most fragmentation. Using the selected landscape metrics, the logistic regression model predicted the distribution of giant pandas with an overall accuracy of 72.5% (κ = 0.45). However, when a knowledge‐based control for elevation and slope was applied to the regression, the overall accuracy of the model improved to 77.6% (κ = 0.55). Main conclusions Giant pandas appear sensitive to patch size and isolation effects associated with fragmentation of dense forest, implying that the design of effective conservation areas for wild giant pandas must include large and dense forest patches that are adjacent to other similar patches. The approach developed here is applicable for analysing the spatial distribution of the giant panda from multi‐temporal MODIS 250‐m EVI data and landscape metrics at the landscape scale.     

清代北京会馆园林述略

清代北京外城地区修建了大量的会馆,作为各地同乡或商业行会的聚会、住宿、祭祀场所,其中部分会馆设有专门的园林,园内营造用于宴饮的厅堂,布置亭轩楼台等建筑,并堆叠假山、开辟池沼、种植花木,形成一种独立的园林类型。通过文献考证和现场调查,对清代北京会馆园林的主要实例进行记述,并对其造园意匠做进一步的分析。总体而言,这些园林的格局较为方整,建筑形式以厅堂、亭、轩为主,假山多以青石叠置,水景简单,植物多为易于维护的品种,匾额、楹联富有文化寓意并反映其故乡特色。     

基于景观地形的小流域单元减灾调控评价研究

近年来,中国诸多大中城市内涝灾害频发。武汉市作为城市内涝频发的典型城市,其建成区地表高度（20.0~24.0 m）大多低于外江常年所处的洪水位高度（23.9 m）,在区域性暴雨条件下,极易引发内涝灾害。武汉由于其内涝典型性,2013年被列为全国31个重点防洪城市之一,2015年被列入首批海绵城市试点城市之一。从城市内涝发生机理出发,以水文角度的小流域单元作为内涝风险区划的基本单元,利用小流域单元分析武汉市景观地形要素（地表高程、地表起伏度、地表粗糙度）与城市内涝积水密度的相关性及其影响程度,量算统计出小流域单元的内涝风险等级。基于此,提出武汉市小流域单元减灾地形调控评价。以武汉市作为城市内涝问题的研究案例,以期为武汉市内涝缓解提供新的思考路径,具有典型性和必要性。     

基于文化与政治生态学的社会生态系统演进机制研究 ——以杭州与西湖为例

科学认识社会生态系统演进机制是对其进行有效管理的重要基础。以文化与政治生态学为理论基础,提出适合杭州—西湖社会生态系统的综合研究框架,识别了杭州—西湖社会生态系统的5个演进阶段,并分析出系统演进中的3种潜在状态。自然、政治、经济以及社会驱动力是影响杭州—西湖社会生态系统的主导因素,人类行为影响整个生态系统中扰动的频率、大小和形式并改变西湖生态系统的结构与功能,进而影响西湖为城市提供生态系统服务的潜能。在不同历史时期,基于自然、社会、经济、文化等多层面的需求,西湖在不同系统状态下为城市供给不同类别和质量的生态系统服务,总体而言供给与调节服务比例逐渐下降,文化服务逐渐上升,并且后者逐步成为最主要的生态系统服务类别。杭州与西湖在长期的互馈共生中建立了社会生态系统的自适应性调节机制,其背后的生态智慧可为现代风景园林规划提供重要启示。