The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model

We developed a process‐based model of forest growth, carbon cycling and land‐cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land‐Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (nonflooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re‐growth over the period from 1970 to 1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of ～0.35 PgC yr^?1 (1 PgC= 1 × 10¹⁵ gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of ～7 PgC from 1970 to 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study ( Houghton et al., 2000 ) by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989–1998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared with the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by～1 PgC from 1970 to 1998, while different assumptions about land‐cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte‐Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).     

Land-use trends in Endemic Bird Areas: global expansion of agriculture in areas of high conservation value

The impacts of humans on biodiversity tend to be exacerbated by the coincidence of human settlement with areas of high biological value, as demonstrated by regional, continental and global analyses. We present a global analysis, intersecting Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs) with fine‐scale data on changes in agricultural land use for the past 300 years and for four scenarios projecting land use up to 2050. The proportion of land in agricultural use is currently greater in EBAs than in the rest of the world (42.0% vs. 37.0%, respectively), has been historically (in 1700: 9.1% vs. 5.7%, through to 1900: 43.4% vs. 32.1%) and looks set to remain so in the future (44.6–56.1% vs. 37.0–43.2%; depending on scenario). However, the future course of agricultural expansion is more scenario‐dependent in EBAs than in the rest of the world, indicating that development policies have considerable potential to either ease or exacerbate the disproportionate impact of agriculture on areas of highest biological value.     

Migration and Agricultural Change: The Case of Smallholder Agriculture in Highland Ecuador

A large and growing number of agricultural households in less developed countries are also engaged in international migration. Thousands of farmers from the highland provinces of Cañar and Azuay, Ecuador, have immigrated to metropolitan New York, where they work in menial jobs and remit, as a group, millions of dollars annually. This paper examines the effects of international migration on agricultural production and land-use in two regions of Cañar Province. An agricultural survey was administered in two communities to determine land-use and agricultural production of migrant and nonmigrant households. Contrary to most reports on the subject, migration has neither led to agricultural abandonment nor have remittances been dedicated to agricultural improvements. Semisubsistence agriculture remains an important riskaverse economic and cultural activity, but cultivation is a poor investment. A large investment in housing and land has converted much of the region into a peri-urban landscape of cultivated real estate.     

Recognition of the main geobotanical features along the Bragança mangrove coast (Brazilian Amazon Region) from Landsat TM and RADARSAT-1 data

Orbital remote sensing data were assessedfor mapping of the main geomorphologicaland vegetation units of the Bragançapeninsula (North Brazil), which belongs toa vast though sparsely mapped mangrovecoast. Wide wetland environmentscharacterize the region with extremevariations in extension, temporalevolution, and spatial complexity. Thiswork was based on different digitalprocessing techniques separately applied toLandsat TM and RADARSAT-1 images. Inaddition, both data were merged on apixel-to-pixel basis using algorithms,which rendered an enhancement of thecoastal landforms and a betterdiscrimination of wetlands and landformtypes. The interpretation of the integratedproduct, aided by field validation, made itpossible to significantly extend existingmapping. Nineteen geobotanical units wereidentified: estuarine channels, submergedsand banks, sandflats, old estuarinesandbanks, mudflats, ebb-tidal deltas,barrier-beach ridges, coastal dunes,chenier sand ridges, young intertidalmangroves, intertidal and supratidalmangroves, outer and inner marshes, fluvialflood plains, coastal plateau, degraded andregenerated mangroves, and an artificiallagoon. The digital integration of Fine RADARSAT-1 and Landsat TM data sensitivelyhighlighted geobotanical coastal features,providing a useful tool for a synopticanalysis of their natural and man-drivenchanges.     

Environmental and human factors influencing rare plant local occurrence, extinction and persistence: a 115-year study in the Mediterranean region

Aim Assessing whether environmental and human factors influenced the spatial distribution and the dynamics of regionally rare plant species since the late nineteenth century, and whether these spatial and temporal patterns of rare species occurrences differ according to their chorology (level of endemism and biogeographic affinity). Location An area extending over 6250 km² in the French Mediterranean Region. Methods We used two botanical surveys achieved in 1886 and in 2001, and considered species rare if occurring in only one or two sites in the study area. Each rare species was assigned to a group of endemism level (restricted endemic, non‐endemic), and of biogeographic affinity (Mediterranean, South/Central European, Mountain, Eurosiberian). A 1 × 1 km grid was applied to the study zone. Generalized linear models were developed to study the spatial distribution and the fate of rare species occurrences (local extinction vs. local persistence between 1886 and 2001), as a function of environmental and human variables. Multivariate analyses were used to test whether the spatial distribution and the fate of rare species occurrences differed according to their chorology. Results In 2001, rare species as a whole tended to occur at higher altitude, in zones dominated by semi‐natural open habitats, and where cultivated area had decreased in the last 30 years. Between 1886 and 2001, rare species were the most prone to local extinction in zones where human population density, cultivated area and livestock density had increased the most. Between 1886 and 2001, rare species had a higher probability of local persistence in zones of high altitude and steep slope, on basic bedrocks and with low cultivated area. Rare species with Mountain and Eurosiberian affinities occurred in marginal habitats in the study region, i.e. on gneiss‐micaschist bedrocks and at high altitudes, whereas Mediterranean and South/Central European rare species occupied more varied environmental conditions. Between 1886 and 2001, Eurosiberian rare species showed high rates of local extinction whereas Mediterranean rare species had a significantly higher probability of local persistence. Restricted endemic species mostly occurred in zones of high slope, low human population density, and where cultivated area had decreased in the last 30 years. Occurrences of restricted endemics remained significantly stable between 1886 and 2001. Main conclusions Environmental and land‐use changes that occurred over the twentieth century in the Mediterranean Basin had significant impacts on the spatial distribution and on the long‐term dynamics of rare species occurrences. Urbanization and recent agriculture intensification, occurring mainly in coastal plains and littoral zones, caused most local extinctions of rare species from 1886 to 2001. Local populations of Eurosiberian species, which reach their range limits in marginal zones of the Mediterranean, also appear to be highly vulnerable. Conversely, most restricted endemic species occur in habitats with harsh topography and low human disturbance and have a higher potential of local persistence.     

Extent and ecological consequences of hunting in Central African rainforests in the twenty-first century

Humans have hunted wildlife in Central Africa for millennia. Today, however, many species are being rapidly extirpated and sanctuaries for wildlife are dwindling. Almost all Central Africa''s forests are now accessible to hunters. Drastic declines of large mammals have been caused in the past 20 years by the commercial trade for meat or ivory. We review a growing body of empirical data which shows that trophic webs are significantly disrupted in the region, with knock-on effects for other ecological functions, including seed dispersal and forest regeneration. Plausible scenarios for land-use change indicate that increasing extraction pressure on Central African forests is likely to usher in new worker populations and to intensify the hunting impacts and trophic cascade disruption already in progress, unless serious efforts are made for hunting regulation. The profound ecological changes initiated by hunting will not mitigate and may even exacerbate the predicted effects of climate change for the region. We hypothesize that, in the near future, the trophic changes brought about by hunting will have a larger and more rapid impact on Central African rainforest structure and function than the direct impacts of climate change on the vegetation. Immediate hunting regulation is vital for the survival of the Central African rainforest ecosystem.     

Spring feeding by pink-footed geese reduces carbon stocks and sink strength in tundra ecosystems

Tundra ecosystems are widely recognized as precious areas and globally important carbon (C) sinks, yet our understanding of potential threats to these habitats and their large soil C store is limited. Land‐use changes and conservation measures in temperate regions have led to a dramatic expansion of arctic‐breeding geese, making them important herbivores of high‐latitude systems. In field experiments conducted in high‐Arctic Spitsbergen, Svalbard, we demonstrate that a brief period of early season belowground foraging by pink‐footed geese is sufficient to strongly reduce C sink strength and soil C stocks of arctic tundra. Mechanisms are suggested whereby vegetation disruption due to repeated use of grubbed areas opens the soil organic layer to erosion and will thus lead to progressive C loss. Our study shows, for the first time, that increases in goose abundance through land‐use change and conservation measures in temperate climes can dramatically affect the C balance of arctic tundra.     

Integrating Environmental Impact Assessment within Kuwait Master Plans as a Tool for Human and Ecological Risk Control

Although it was claimed that the Kuwait Master Plans have helped guide the development in Kuwait from a small mud brick town of 150,000 inhabitants to today's modern metropolis of about 3 million inhabitants, this article argues that the implementation of the first plan in 1952 planted the seeds of human and ecological risk problems in Kuwait, which were intensified later in the 1960s and 1970s. As the latest 2007 Master Plan comprises major development projects, which could certainly have adverse ecological impacts on the environment and human well-being, this article highlights the importance of integrating environmental impact assessment (EIA) and the development projects within the Master Plan as a tool for sustainable development and as an assessment of human and ecological risks before the implementation of such projects. According to the current status, the level of collaboration among the concerned organizations responsible for preparing the Master Plans and conducting the EIA is behind the ambition. This article recommends setting out documented environmental criteria for land use planning and major development projects implementation, so as to control pollution and prevent any environmental change that might impair the public's health or influence future ecological stability.     

Pasture degradation in the central Amazon: linking changes in carbon and nutrient cycling with remote sensing

The majority of deforested land in the Amazon Basin has become cattle pasture, making forest‐to‐pasture conversion an important contributor to the carbon (C) and climate dynamics of the region. However, our understanding of biogeochemical dynamics in pasturelands remains poor, especially when attempting to scale up predictions of C cycle changes. A wide range of pasture ages, soil types, management strategies, and climates make remote sensing the only realistic means to regionalize our understanding of pasture biogeochemistry and C cycling over such an enormous geographic area. However, the use of remote sensing has been impeded by a lack of effective links between variables that can be observed from satellites (e.g. live and senescent biomass) and variables that cannot be observed, but which may drive key changes in C storage and trace gas fluxes (e.g. soil nutrient status). We studied patterns in canopy biophysical–biochemical properties and soil biogeochemical processes along pasture age gradients on two important soil types in the central Amazon. Our goals were to (1) improve our understanding of the plot‐scale biogeochemical dynamics of this land‐use change, (2) evaluate the effects of pasture development on two contrasting soil types (clayey Oxisols and sandy Entisols), and (3) attempt to use remotely sensed variables to scale up the site‐specific variability in biogeochemical conditions of pasturelands. The biogeochemical analyses showed that (1) aboveground and soil C stocks decreased with pasture age on both clayey and sandy soils, (2) declines in plant biomass were well correlated with declines in soil C and with available phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca), and (3) despite low initial values for total and available soil P, ecosystem P stocks declined further with pasture age, as did a number of other nutrients. Spectral mixture analysis of Landsat imagery provided estimates of photosynthetic vegetation (PV) and non‐photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) that were highly correlated with field measurements of these variables and plant biomass. In turn, the remotely sensed sum PV+NPV was well correlated with the changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen, and available P and Ca. These results suggest that remote sensing can be an excellent indicator of not only pasture area, but of pasture condition and C storage, thereby greatly improving regional estimates of the environmental consequences of such land‐use change.