Using space‐for‐time substitution and time sequence approaches in invasion ecology

1. Invasion biologists use two main approaches to evaluate the effects of non‐native species (NNS) on diversity of native species (DNS), namely space‐for‐time and time approaches. These approaches have pitfalls related to lack of controls: the former lacks pre‐invasion data, while the latter often lacks data from non‐invaded sites. 2. We propose a framework that combines space‐for‐time and time approaches and which should result in more focused mechanistic hypotheses and experiments to test the causes of invasibility and the effects of NNS on DNS. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework using two case studies: one with the submersed macrophyte, Hydrilla verticillata, in reservoir and the other with the fish, Geophagus proximus, in a large river–floodplain system. 3. Hydrilla verticillata invaded sites with DNS similar to that found in non‐invaded sites, indicating that biotic and/or abiotic factors did not influence invasion success; however, DNS increased over time in invaded sites compared with non‐invaded sites, suggesting that H. verticillata facilitated natives. In contrast, G. proximus invaded sites with higher DNS than non‐invaded sites, suggesting that biotic and/or abiotic factors favouring natives were important for invasion success, but DNS increased in invaded and non‐invaded sites over time, indicating that an independent factor contributed to DNS increases. 4. Conclusions from both studies would have been inaccurate or incomplete if the space‐for‐time and time approaches had not been used in combination as proposed in our framework.     

The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment

Warming has profound effects on biological rates such as metabolism, growth, feeding and death of organisms, eventually affecting their ability to survive. Using a nonlinear bioenergetic population-dynamic model that accounts for temperature and body-mass dependencies of biological rates, we analysed the individual and interactive effects of increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment on the dynamics of a three-species food chain. At low temperatures, warming counteracts the destabilizing effects of enrichment by both bottom-up (via the carrying capacity) and top-down (via biological rates) mechanisms. Together with increasing consumer body masses, warming increases the system tolerance to fertilization. Simultaneously, warming increases the risk of starvation for large species in low-fertility systems. This effect can be counteracted by increased fertilization. In combination, therefore, two main drivers of global change and biodiversity loss can have positive and negative effects on food chain stability. Our model incorporates the most recent empirical data and may thus be used as the basis for more complex forecasting models incorporating food-web structure.     

On the Spectrum of Prebiotic Chemical Systems

We reexamine Eigen’s paradox using the asymptotic limit theorems of information theory. Applying the homology between information source uncertainty and free energy density, under rate distortion constraints, the error catastrophe emerges as the lowest energy state for simple prebiotic systems without error correction. Invoking the usual compartmentalization – i.e., ‘vesicles’ – and using a Red Queen argument, suggests that information crosstalk between two or more properly interacting structures can initiate a coevolutionary dynamic having at least two quasi-stable states. The first is a low energy realm near the error threshold, and, depending on available energy, the second can approach zero error as a limit. A large deviations argument produces jet-like global transitions which, over sufficient time, may enable shifts between the many quasi-stable modes available to more complicated structures, ‘locking in’ to some subset of the various possible low error rate chemical systems, which become subject to development by selection and chance extinction. Energy availability, according to the model, is thus a powerful necessary condition for low error rate replication, suggesting that some fundamental prebiotic ecosystem transformation entrained reproductive fidelity. This work, then, supports speculation that our RNA/DNA world may indeed be only the chance result of a very broad prebiotic evolutionary phenomenon. Processes in vitro, or ex planeta, might have other outcomes.     

Condition-dependence,genotype-by-environment interactions and the lek paradox

The lek paradox states that maintaining genetic variation necessary for 'indirect benefit' models of female choice is difficult, and two interrelated solutions have been proposed. 'Genic capture' assumes condition-dependence of sexual traits, while genotype-by-environment interactions (GEIs) offer an additional way to maintain diversity. However, condition-dependence, particularly with GEIs, implies that environmental variation can blur the relationship between male displays and offspring fitness. These issues have been treated separately in the past. Here we combine them in a population genetic model, and show that predictions change not only in magnitude but also in direction when the timing of dispersal between environments relative to the life cycle is changed. GEIs can dramatically improve the evolution of costly female preferences, but also hamper it if much dispersal occurs between the life history stage where condition is determined and mating. This situation also arises if selection or mutation rates are too high. In general, our results highlight that when evaluating any mechanism promoted as a potential resolution of the lek paradox, it is not sufficient to focus on its effects on genetic variation. It also has to be assessed to what extent the proposed mechanism blurs the association between male attractiveness and offspring fitness; the net balance of these two effects can be positive or negative, and often strongly context-dependent.     

Condition-dependence, genotype-by-environment interactions and the lek paradox

The lek paradox states that maintaining genetic variation necessary for ‘indirect benefit’ models of female choice is difficult, and two interrelated solutions have been proposed. ‘Genic capture’ assumes condition-dependence of sexual traits, while genotype-by-environment interactions (GEIs) offer an additional way to maintain diversity. However, condition-dependence, particularly with GEIs, implies that environmental variation can blur the relationship between male displays and offspring fitness. These issues have been treated separately in the past. Here we combine them in a population genetic model, and show that predictions change not only in magnitude but also in direction when the timing of dispersal between environments relative to the life cycle is changed. GEIs can dramatically improve the evolution of costly female preferences, but also hamper it if much dispersal occurs between the life history stage where condition is determined and mating. This situation also arises if selection or mutation rates are too high. In general, our results highlight that when evaluating any mechanism promoted as a potential resolution of the lek paradox, it is not sufficient to focus on its effects on genetic variation. It also has to be assessed to what extent the proposed mechanism blurs the association between male attractiveness and offspring fitness; the net balance of these two effects can be positive or negative, and often strongly context-dependent.     

The capture of heritable variation for genetic quality through social competition

In theory, females of many species choose mates based on traits that are indicators of male genetic quality. A fundamental question in evolutionary biology is why genetic variation for such indicator traits persists despite strong persistent selection imposed by female preference, which is known as the lek paradox. One potential solution to the lek paradox suggests that the traits that are targets of mate choice should evolve condition-dependent expression and that condition should have a large genetic variance. Condition is expected to exhibit high genetic variance because it is affected by a large number of physiological processes and hence, condition-dependent traits should 'capture' variation contributed by a large number of loci. We suggest that a potentially important cause of variation in condition is competition for limited resources. Here, we discuss a pair of models to analyze the evolutionary genetics of traits affected by success in social competition for resources. We show that competition can contribute to genetic variation of 'competition-dependent' traits that have fundamentally different evolutionary properties than other sources of variation. Competition dependence can make traits honest indicators of genetic quality by revealing the relative competitive ability of males, can provide a component of heritable variation that does not contribute to trait evolution, and can help maintain heritable variation under directional selection. Here we provide a general introduction to the concept of competition dependence and briefly introduce two models to demonstrate the potential evolutionary consequences of competition-dependent trait expression.     

Investigating health at Kerma: sacrificial versus nonsacrificial individuals

This analysis examines heterogeneity in risks by assessing the health status of individuals in two distinct burial contexts from the Nubian site of Kerma: sacrificial (n = 100) and nonsacrificial (n = 190) burial areas dated to the classic Kerma period ( approximately 1750-1500 BC). Indicators of physiological stress that were examined include cribra orbitalia, dental enamel hypoplasia, tibial osteoperiostitis, and femur length. The analysis presented here shows that the people interred in the sacrificial and nonsacrificial burial contexts at Kerma in Upper Nubia had similar health profiles that were comparable with other contemporaneous samples from the region. If sacrificial individuals did not experience the same risk of death as nonsacrificial individuals, it was not evident in the frequencies of nonspecific stress indicators. However, this differential risk of death may be blurred by our inability to examine nonadults for childhood disease. This research demonstrates the complexities involved in understanding the multiple factors that result in heterogeneity in skeletal samples.     

Experimental support for a resource-based mechanistic model of invasibility

Recent theory has suggested a mechanistic relationship between resource availability, competition and invasibility. In a field experiment, in which we manipulated resources and competition, we confirmed that changes in resource availability affected competition intensity, which in turn affected invasibility. We found that fluctuations in resource availability of as short as a few weeks had a large impact on plant invasion success (survival and percentage cover), including up to 1 year following the fluctuations. If resource availability is a primary mechanism controlling invasibility, it may serve as a unifying concept that can integrate earlier ideas regarding invasibility. The results emphasize the important role of history in the invasion process, particularly the occurrence of stochastic, short-lived events that temporarily reduce or suspend competition and increase invasibility. Therefore, it may be very difficult, or even impossible, to reconstruct the ecology of particular invasions after the fact.     

The Reality of Ecological Assemblages: A Palaeo-ecological Puzzle

Ecological communities, I argue, are objective units of nature if theyhave structure that regulates their membership. Evidence of suchstructure in contemporary ecology is scant, but the palaeoecologicalphenomenon of co-ordinated stasis is a prima facie example ofinternal regulation. I argue that no individualist attempts to explainaway the appearance of internal regulation succeeds. But no internalistmodel is fully satisfactory, either, in explaining the contrast betweenpre and post Pleistocene ecology.     

Species Invasiveness in Biological Invasions: A Modelling Approach

The study of invasiveness, the traits that enable a species to invade a habitat, and invasibility, the habitat characteristics that determine its susceptibility to the establishment and spread of an invasive species, provide a useful conceptual framework to formulate the biological invasion problem in a modelling context. Another important aspect is the complex interaction emerging among the invader species, the noninvader species already present in the habitat, and the habitat itself. Following a modelling approach to the biological invasion problem, we present a spatially explicit cellular automaton model (Interacting Multiple Cellular Automata (IMCA)). We use field parameters from the invader Gleditsia triacanthos and the native Lithraea ternifolia in montane forests of central Argentina as a case study to compare outputs and performance of different models. We use field parameters from another invader, Ligustrum lucidum, and the native Fagara coco from the same system to run the cellular automaton model. We compare model predictions with invasion values from aerial photographs. We discuss in detail the importance of factors affecting species invasiveness, and give some insights into habitat invasibility and the role of interactions between them. Finally, we discuss the relevance of mathematical modelling for studying and predicting biological invasions. The IMCA model provided a suitable context for integrating invasiveness, invasibility, and the interactions. In the invasion system studied, the presence of an invader's juvenile bank not only accelerated the rate of invasion but was essential to ensure invasion. Using the IMCA model, we were able to determine that not only adult survival but particularly longevity of the native species influenced the spread velocity of the invader, at least when a juvenile bank is present. Other factors determining velocity of invasion detected by the IMCA model were seed dispersal distance and age of reproductive maturity. We derived relationships between species' adult survival, fecundity and longevity of both theoretical and applied relevance for biological invasions. Invasion velocities calculated from the aerial photographs agreed well with predictions of the IMCA model.