The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning

The analysis of climate change impact is essential to include in conservation planning of crop wild relatives (CWR) to provide the guideline for adequate long-term protection under unpredictable future environmental conditions. These resources play an important role in sustaining the future of food security, but the evidence shows that they are threatened by climate change. The current analyses show that five taxa were predicted to have contraction of more than 30 % of their current ranges: Artocarpus sepicanus (based on RCP 4.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario and RCP 8.5 in no dispersal scenario by 2050), Ficus oleifolia (RCP 4.5 5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2080), Cocos nucifera and Dioscorea alata (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050), and Ficus chartacea (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050 and 2080). It shows that the climate change impact is species-specific. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and dispersal scenarios influence the prediction models, and the actual future distribution range of species falls in between those scenarios. Climate refugia, holdout populations, and non-analogue community assemblages were identified based on the Protected Areas (PAs) network. PAs capacity is considered an important element in implementing a conservation strategy for the priority CWR. In areas where PAs are isolated and have less possibility to build corridors to connect each other, such as in Java, unlimited dispersal scenarios are unlikely to be achieved and assisted dispersal is suggested. The holdout populations should be the priority target for the ex situ collection. Therefore, by considering the climate refugia, PAs capacity and holdout populations, the goal of keeping high genetic variations for the long-term conservation of CWR in Indonesia can be achieved.     

Velvet worm (Phylum Onychophora) on a sand island,in a wetland: Flushed from a Pleistocene refuge by recent rainfall?

Velvet worms (Onychophora) are restricted to moist, humid microclimates, but are poorly known from south‐east Queensland, Australia, where they are typically rainforest fauna. We made the unlikely observation of one of these invertebrates clinging to floating debris in a wetland on North Stradbroke Island. Palaeoecology of this wetland reveals that it once was within rainforest and has remained moist for at least the past 80 000 years, thus potentially harbouring an onychophoran population as a relic of a past broader, rainforest distribution. The presence of this animal, floating in the wetland, can be explained by recent climate, since the wetland filled following heavy rainfall shortly before the observation. This highlights the importance of groundwater‐fed wetlands as evolutionary refugia for moisture‐dependent biota.     

Turbid reefs moderate coral bleaching under climate‐related temperature stress

Thermal‐stress events that cause coral bleaching and mortality have recently increased in frequency and severity. Yet few studies have explored conditions that moderate coral bleaching. Given that high light and high ocean temperature together cause coral bleaching, we explore whether corals at turbid localities, with reduced light, are less likely to bleach during thermal‐stress events than corals at other localities. We analyzed coral bleaching, temperature, and turbidity data from 3,694 sites worldwide with a Bayesian model and found that K_d490, a measurement positively related to turbidity, between 0.080 and 0.127 reduced coral bleaching during thermal‐stress events. Approximately 12% of the world's reefs exist within this “moderating turbidity” range, and 30% of reefs that have moderating turbidity are in the Coral Triangle. We suggest that these turbid nearshore environments may provide some refuge through climate change, but these reefs will need high conservation status to sustain them close to dense human populations.     

Postglacial recolonization of North America by spadefoot toads: integrating niche and corridor modeling to study species’ range dynamics over geologic time

Understanding the factors that shape species’ distributions is a key topic in biogeography. As climates change, species can either cope with these changes through evolution, plasticity or by shifting their ranges to track the optimal climatic conditions. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a widespread technique in biogeography that estimates the niche of the organism by using occurrences and environmental data to estimate species’ potential distributions. ENMs are often criticized for failing to take species’ dispersal abilities into consideration. Here, we attempt to fill this gap by combining ENMs with dispersal and corridor modeling to study the range dynamics of North American spadefoot toads (Scaphiopodidae) over the Holocene. We first estimated the current and past distributions of spadefoot toads and then estimated their past distributions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present day. Then, we estimated how each taxon recolonized North American by using dispersal and corridor modeling. By combining these two modeling approaches we were able to 1) estimate the LGM refugia used by the North American spadefoot toads, 2) further refine these projections by estimating which of the putative LGM refugia contributed to the recolonization of North America via dispersal, and 3) estimate the relative influence of each LGM refugium to the current species’ distributions. The models were tested using previously published phylogeographic data, revealing a high degree of congruence between our models and the genetic data. These results suggest that combining ENMs and dispersal modeling over time is a promising approach to investigate both historical and future species’ range dynamics.     

Inferring the sources of postglacial range expansion in two large European land snails

Exact locations of glacial refugia are relevant for the study of contemporary biodiversity, not only as places less disturbed during the climatic changes but also as sources of rapid expansion of the biota after the Last Glacial cycle. If continuously inhabited over several of the Quaternary glacial cycles, the refugia are readily identifiable by the accumulated genetic diversity. However, the sources of the Holocene range expansion, particularly important for the emergence of present-day bio- and phylogeographic patterns and for realistic estimation of species’ expansion rates, might have been located at the fringes of the glacial species ranges and lack unique lineages. This problem is pertinent when the variation is explored at slowly evolving genetic markers. We suggest that the location of such source refugia may be approximated by reconstructing the geographic location as a continuous trait evolving along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. We applied this approach, using the BEAST software, on two large southeast European land snail species: Caucasotachea vindobonensis and Helix thessalica. We found evidence for C. vindobonensis refugia in the western Balkans; notable is an apparently old refugium in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The plausible sources of the species’ Holocene range expansion, however, were located around the south-western end of the Carpathians. Although the source areas were likely similar in H. thessalica, some expansion sources suggested by the analyses (e.g., Podolia, Ukraine) appeared implausible and driven by sampling clustered in that area. The applied approach allows for additional exploitation of the mitochondrial data gathered during the past two decades of animal phylogeography studies.     

Land masses and oceanic currents drive population structure of Heritiera littoralis,a widespread mangrove in the Indo‐West Pacific

Phylogeographic forces driving evolution of sea‐dispersed plants are often influenced by regional and species characteristics, although not yet deciphered at a large spatial scale for many taxa like the mangrove species Heritiera littoralis. This study aimed to assess geographic distribution of genetic variation of this widespread mangrove in the Indo‐West Pacific region and identify the phylogeographic factors influencing its present‐day distribution. Analysis of five chloroplast DNA fragments’ sequences from 37 populations revealed low genetic diversity at the population level and strong genetic structure of H. littoralis in this region. The estimated divergence times between the major genetic lineages indicated that glacial level changes during the Pleistocene epoch induced strong genetic differentiation across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In comparison to the strong genetic break imposed by the Sunda Shelf toward splitting the lineages of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the genetic differentiation between Indo‐Malesia and Australasia was not so prominent. Long‐distance dispersal ability of H. littoralis propagules helped the species to attain transoceanic distribution not only across South East Asia and Australia, but also across the Indian Ocean to East Africa. However, oceanic circulation pattern in the South China Sea was found to act as a barrier creating further intraoceanic genetic differentiation. Overall, phylogeographic analysis in this study revealed that glacial vicariance had profound influence on population differentiation in H. littoralis and caused low genetic diversity except for the refugia populations near the equator which might have persisted through glacial maxima. With increasing loss of suitable habitats due to anthropogenic activities, these findings therefore emphasize the urgent need for conservation actions for all populations throughout the distribution range of H. littoralis.     

Spatial and temporal population genetic variation and structure of Nothotsuga longibracteata (Pinaceae), a relic conifer species endemic to subtropical China

Nothotsuga longibracteata, a relic and endangered conifer species endemic to subtropical China, was studied for examining the spatial-temporal population genetic variation and structure to understand the historical biogeographical processes underlying the present geographical distribution. Ten populations were sampled over the entire natural range of the species for spatial analysis, while three key populations with large population sizes and varied age structure were selected for temporal analyses using both nuclear microsatellites (nSSR) and chloroplast microsatellites (cpSSR). A recent bottleneck was detected in the natural populations of N. longibracteata. The spatial genetic analysis showed significant population genetic differentiation across its total geographical range. Notwithstanding, the temporal genetic analysis revealed that the level of genetic diversity between different age class subpopulations remained constant over time. Eleven refugia of the Last Glacial Maximum were identified, which deserve particular attention for conservation management.     

Multi‐species distribution modelling highlights the Adelaide Geosyncline,South Australia,as an important continental‐scale arid‐zone refugium

The mainland portion of the Adelaide Geosyncline (Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges) has been postulated as an important arid‐zone climate refugium for Australia. To test the sensitivity of this putative Australian arid biome refugium to contemporary climate change, we compared Generalized Additive Modelling and MaxEnt distribution models for 20 vascular plant species. We aimed to identify shared patterns to inform priority areas for management. Models based on current climate were projected onto a hypothetical 2050 climate with a 1.5°C increase in temperature and 8% decrease in rainfall. Individual comparisons and combined outputs of logistic models for all 20 species showed range contraction to shared refugia in the Flinders Ranges and southern Mount Lofty Ranges. Modelling suggests the Flinders Ranges will experience species turnover while suitable climatic habitat will be retained in the Mount Lofty Ranges for the current suite of species. Fragmentation of the southern Mount Lofty Ranges poses management challenges for conserving species diversity with warming and drying. Although projected models must be interpreted carefully, they suggest the region will remain an important but threatened refugium for mesic species at a continental scale.     

The larva of Rhyacophila ferox Graf, 2006 (Trichoptera: Rhyacophilidae) from the Eastern Alps (Carinthia,Austria)

The hitherto unknown larva of Rhyacophila ferox Graf, 2006, is described and discussed in the context of contemporary Rhyacophilidae keys. In addition, zoogeographical and ecological notes are included.