基于实码遗传算法的湖泊水质模型参数优化

参数的合理取值决定着模型的模拟效果,因此确定研究区域的模型结构后,需要对模型的参数进行优化.湖泊水质模型(Simulation by means of an Analytical Lake Model,SALMO)利用常微分方程描述湖泊的营养物质循环和食物链动态,考虑了多个生态过程,包含104个参数.由于参数较多,不适宜采用传统参数优化方法进行优化.利用太湖梅梁湾2005年数据,采用实码遗传算法优化了SALMO模型中相对敏感的参数,运用优化后的模型,模拟了梅梁湾2006年的水质.对比分析参数优化前后模型的效果表明遗传算法能高效地对SALMO进行参数优化,优化后的模拟精度得到了显著提高,能更好地模拟梅梁湾的水质变化.     

末次盛冰期以来观光木的潜在地理分布变迁

观光木(Tsoongiodendron odorum)是木兰科的古老残遗物种, 目前正面临严峻的生存威胁, 属于极小种群濒危植物。通过生态位模型(ENM)能够重建观光木地理分布格局的历史变迁, 探究气候变化对该物种分布的影响, 并了解其地理分布与气候需求间的关系, 从而为全球变暖背景下观光木的保护提供理论基础。该文基于96条现代分布记录和8个环境变量, 采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟观光木在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和未来(2061-2080年, RCP 8.5)的潜在分布区, 利用SDM toolbox分析观光木的地理空间变化, 并综合贡献率、置换重要值和Jackknife检验来评估气候因子的重要性。研究结果表明: (1)观光木的高度适生区在南岭地区, 末次盛冰期时没有大尺度向南退缩, 很可能在山区避难所原地存活; (2)在全新世中期和未来两个增温的气候情境下, 观光木的分布区均表现为缩减, 其中未来分布的减幅更大, 表明气候变暖对观光木的生长有一定的负面影响; (3)总体上看, 观光木各个时期的地理分布范围相对稳定, 说明观光木对气候变化有一定的适应能力, 人为活动或自身繁育问题可能是致濒的重要原因, 并建议对广东和广西群体进行优先保护。     

In situ adaptive response to climate and habitat quality variation: spatial and temporal variation in European badger (Meles meles) body weight

Variation in climatic and habitat conditions can affect populations through a variety of mechanisms, and these relationships can act at different temporal and spatial scales. Using post‐mortem badger body weight records from 15 878 individuals captured across the Republic of Ireland (7224 setts across ca. 15 000 km²; 2009–2012), we employed a hierarchical multilevel mixed model to evaluate the effects of climate (rainfall and temperature) and habitat quality (landscape suitability), while controlling for local abundance (unique badgers caught/sett/year). Body weight was affected strongly by temperature across a number of temporal scales (preceding month or season), with badgers being heavier if preceding temperatures (particularly during winter/spring) were warmer than the long‐term seasonal mean. There was less support for rainfall across different temporal scales, although badgers did exhibit heavier weights when greater rainfall occurred one or 2 months prior to capture. Badgers were also heavier in areas with higher landscape habitat quality, modulated by the number of individuals captured per sett, consistent with density‐dependent effects reducing weights. Overall, the mean badger body weight of culled individuals rose during the study period (2009–2012), more so for males than for females. With predicted increases in temperature, and rainfall, augmented by ongoing agricultural land conversion in this region, we project heavier individual badger body weights in the future. Increased body weight has been associated with higher fecundity, recruitment and survival rates in badgers, due to improved food availability and energetic budgets. We thus predict that climate change could increase the badger population across the Republic of Ireland. Nevertheless, we emphasize that, locally, populations could still be vulnerable to extreme weather variability coupled with detrimental agricultural practice, including population management.     

Multi-scale computational modelling in biology and physiology

Recent advances in biotechnology and the availability of ever more powerful computers have led to the formulation of increasingly complex models at all levels of biology. One of the main aims of systems biology is to couple these together to produce integrated models across multiple spatial scales and physical processes. In this review, we formulate a definition of multi-scale in terms of levels of biological organisation and describe the types of model that are found at each level. Key issues that arise in trying to formulate and solve multi-scale and multi-physics models are considered and examples of how these issues have been addressed are given for two of the more mature fields in computational biology: the molecular dynamics of ion channels and cardiac modelling. As even more complex models are developed over the coming few years, it will be necessary to develop new methods to model them (in particular in coupling across the interface between stochastic and deterministic processes) and new techniques will be required to compute their solutions efficiently on massively parallel computers. We outline how we envisage these developments occurring.     

Northern richness and southern poverty: contrasting genetic footprints of glacial refugia in the relictual tree Sciadopitys verticillata (Coniferales: Sciadopityaceae)

Sciadopitys verticillata is amongst the most relictual of all plants, being the last living member of an ancient conifer lineage, the Sciadopityaceae, and is distributed in small and disjunct populations in high rainfall regions of Japan. Although mega‐fossils indicate the persistence of the species within Japan through the Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles, how the species withstood the colder and drier climates of the glacials is not well known. The present study utilized phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling to test whether the species survived within pollen‐based coastal temperate forest glacial refugia or within previously unidentified refugia close to its current range. Sixteen chloroplast haplotypes were found that displayed significant geographical structuring. Unexpectedly, northern populations in central Honshu most distant from coastal refugia had the highest chloroplast diversity and were differentiated from the south, a legacy of glacial populations possibly in inland river valleys close to its current northern range. By contrast, populations near putative coastal refugia in southern Japan, harboured the lower chloroplast diversity and were dominated by a single haplotype. Fragment size polymorphism at a highly variable and homoplasious mononucleotide repeat region in the trnT‐trnL intergenic spacer reinforced the contrasting patterns of diversity observed between northern and southern populations. The divergent histories of northern and southern populations revealed in the present study will inform the management of this globally significant conifer. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 108 , 263–277.     

昆虫种群动态非线性建模理论与应用

本文以非线性动力学为基础,对自然界中昆虫种群动态的复杂性、不确定性进行了建模方法的探讨,在讨论了昆虫种群动态的混沌与非线性时间序列预测方法的前提下,以山东省玉米螟等种群动态资料进行了实例分析。     

ACCA phosphopeptide recognition by the BRCT repeats of BRCA1

The tumour suppressor gene BRCA1 encodes a 220 kDa protein that participates in multiple cellular processes. The BRCA1 protein contains a tandem of two BRCT repeats at its carboxy-terminal region. The majority of disease-associated BRCA1 mutations affect this region and provide to the BRCT repeats a central role in the BRCA1 tumour suppressor function. The BRCT repeats have been shown to mediate phospho-dependant protein-protein interactions. They recognize phosphorylated peptides using a recognition groove that spans both BRCT repeats. We previously identified an interaction between the tandem of BRCA1 BRCT repeats and ACCA, which was disrupted by germ line BRCA1 mutations that affect the BRCT repeats. We recently showed that BRCA1 modulates ACCA activity through its phospho-dependent binding to ACCA. To delineate the region of ACCA that is crucial for the regulation of its activity by BRCA1, we searched for potential phosphorylation sites in the ACCA sequence that might be recognized by the BRCA1 BRCT repeats. Using sequence analysis and structure modelling, we proposed the Ser1263 residue as the most favourable candidate among six residues, for recognition by the BRCA1 BRCT repeats. Using experimental approaches, such as GST pull-down assay with Bosc cells, we clearly showed that phosphorylation of only Ser1263 was essential for the interaction of ACCA with the BRCT repeats. We finally demonstrated by immunoprecipitation of ACCA in cells, that the whole BRCA1 protein interacts with ACCA when phosphorylated on Ser1263.     

The response of stream periphyton to Pacific salmon: using a model to understand the role of environmental context

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