Managing the pattern of forest harvest: lessons from wildfire

Managing forests for sustainable use requires that both the biological diversity of the forests and a viable forest industry be maintained. A current approach towards maintaining biological diversity is to pattern forest management practices after those of natural disturbance events. This paradigm hypothesizes that ecological processes will be maintained best where active management approximates natural disturbance events. The forest management model now used in most sub-boreal and boreal forests calls for regularly dispersed clearcuts no greater than 60–100 ha in size. However, the spatial characteristics of the landscape produced by this model are distinctly different from the historic pattern generated by wildfire, which was heretofore the dominant stand-replacing process in these forests. Wildfire creates a more complex landscape spatial pattern with greater range in patch size and more irregular disturbance boundaries. Individual wildfires are often over 500 ha but leave patches of unburned forest within them. The combination of these attributes is not present in recent clearcuts. Allowing a proportion of larger (i.e.>500ha) harvest units may provide distinct economic advantages that could outweight the opportunity costs of leaving some patches of forest behind. For the forest type examined, further evaluation of modelling forest harvest patterns more closely after the patterns created by wildfire is required as it may achieve a good balance and strike a suitable compromise between certain ecological and economic objectives of sustainable development.     

北方稻田生态系统水量平衡及水分效率研究

１９９３～１９９５年研究了５种不同模式水稻田生态系统水量平衡及水分效率结果表明,不同水稻田模式其总耗水量之间有明显差异,其中节水模式和节水节肥模式较常规模式节省灌溉水达１５～２３％,水分生产效率增加３０％以上．各模式蒸发蒸腾耗水量在同一生长季内基本相同．田间结构及调控管理对其无明显影响实测水稻生育期田间蒸发蒸腾量与计算的可能蒸发蒸腾量相差不过５％。     

北方稻田生态系统研究Ⅱ．稻萍结合系统细绿萍共生固N量研究

对稻萍结合系统细绿萍共生固Ｎ量研究表明,萍的固Ｎ力在整个生长季不同时期有所变化．最高固Ｎ率出现在６月初,萍固Ｎ量随其接种量和水稻行距增加而增加．５０～１０ｃｍ宽窄行交替的水稻行距和１５００ｋｇ·ｈｍ－２的萍接种量的稻萍结合系统的总固Ｎ量为１０７．１ｋｇ·ｈｍ－２,而３０ｃｍ等行距的３２５ｋｇ·ｈｍ－２的萍接种量的稻－萍结合系统的总固Ｎ量仅为３６．０ｋｇ·ｈｍ－２     

Modelling temporal variability in the carbon balance of a spruce/moss boreal forest

A model of the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/feathermoss boreal forest ecosystem was developed and results compared to preliminary data from the 1994 BOREAS field campaign in northem Manitoba, Canada. The model, driven by daily weather conditions, simulated daily soil climate status (temperature and moisture profiles), spruce photosynthesis and respiration, moss photosynthesis and respiration, and litter decomposition. Model agreement with preliminary field data was good for net ecosystem exchange (NEE), capturing both the asymmetrical seasonality and short-term variability. During the growing season simulated daily NEE ranged from -4 g C m^-2 d^-1 (carbon uptake by ecosystem) to + 2 g C m^-2 d^-1 (carbon flux to atmosphere), with fluctuations from day to day. In the early winter simulated NEE values were + 0.5 g C m^-2 d^-1, dropping to + 0.2 g C m^-2 d^-1 in mid-winter. Simulated soil respiration during the growing season (+ 1 to + 5 g C m^-2 d^-1) was dominated by metabolic respiration of the live moss, with litter decomposition usually contributing less than 30% and live spruce root respiration less than 10% of the total. Both spruce and moss net primary productivity (NPP) rates were higher in early summer than late summer. Simulated annual NEE for 1994 was -51 g C m^-2 y^-1, with 83% going into tree growth and 17% into the soil carbon accumulation. Moss NPP (58 g C m^-2 y^-1) was considered to be litter (i.e. soil carbon input; no net increase in live moss biomass). Ecosystem respiration during the snow-covered season (84 g C m^-2) was 58% of the growing season net carbon uptake. A simulation of the same site for 1968–1989 showed = 10–20% year-to-year variability in heterotrophic respiration (mean of + 113 g C m^-2 y^-1). Moss NPP ranged from 19 to 114 g C m^-2 y^-1; spruce NPP from 81 to 150 g C m^-2 y^-1; spruce growth (NPP minus litterfall) from 34 to 103 g C m^-2 y^-1; NEE ranged from +37 to -142 g C m^-2 y^-1. Values for these carbon balance terms in 1994 were slightly smaller than the 1969–89 means. Higher ecosystem productivity years (more negative NEE) generally had early springs and relatively wet summers; lower productivity years had late springs and relatively dry summers.     

System-level adjustments to elevated CO2 in model spruce ecosystems

Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment and increasing nitrogen deposition are often predicted to increase forest productivity based on currently available data for isolated forest tree seedlings or their leaves. However, it is highly uncertain whether such seedling responses will scale to the stand level. Therefore, we studied the effects of increasing CO₂ (280, 420 and 560 μL L^-1) and increasing rates of wet N deposition (0, 30 and 90 kg ha^-1 y^-1) on whole stands of 4-year-old spruce trees (Picea abies). One tree from each of six clones, together with two herbaceous understory species, were established in each of nine 0.7 m² model ecosystems in nutrient poor forest soil and grown in a simulated montane climate for two years. Shoot level light-saturated net photosynthesis measured at growth CO₂ concentrations increased with increasing CO₂, as well as with increasing N deposition. However, predawn shoot respiration was unaffected by treatments. When measured at a common CO₂ concentration of 420 μL L^-1 37% down-regulation of photosynthesis was observed in plants grown at 560 μL CO₂ L^-1. Length growth of shoots and stem diameter were not affected by CO₂ or N deposition. Bud burst was delayed, leaf area index (LAI) was lower, needle litter fall increased and soil CO₂ efflux increased with increasing CO₂. N deposition had no effect on these traits. At the ecosystem level the rate of net CO₂ exchange was not significantly different between CO₂ and N treatments. Most of the responses to CO₂ studied here were nonlinear with the most significant differences between 280 and 420 μL CO₂ L^-1 and relatively small changes between 420 and 560 μL CO₂ L^-1. Our results suggest that the lack of above-ground growth responses to elevated CO₂ is due to the combined effects of physiological down-regulation of photosynthesis at the leaf level, allometric adjustment at the canopy level (reduced LAI), and increasing strength of below-ground carbon sinks. The non-linearity of treatment effects further suggests that major responses of coniferous forests to atmospheric CO₂ enrichment might already be under way and that future responses may be comparatively smaller.     

Natural Occurrence ofChondrostereum purpureumin Relation to Its Use as a Biological Control Agent in Canadian Forests

The incidence of natural fructification ofChondrostereum purpureumwas estimated quantitatively on southern Vancouver Island during two winter seasons in randomly located 1000-m²plots and compared with potential added fructification that might occur as a result of using the fungus to control stump-sprouting of hardwood weeds in young forest stands. Fructification was surveyed in forests as well as in urban or agricultural areas by estimating the surface areas of woody substrates covered with basidiocarps. In addition to random plots, estimates were made also in locations where the fungus would be expected to occur (woodpiles, silvicultural thinnings, and killed trees). Basidiocarps were found throughout the area in various types of forest cover as well as in urban or agricultural situations. The amount of added fructification through the use of the fungus as a biological control agent was determined from inoculated plots as well as from calculated stump-surface areas developed from published stand-density data. Added fructification was multiplied by a factor representing the maximum biological control frequency in order to compare added fructification with natural fructification values. From the various calculations, it was determined that the added fructification ofC. purpureumis of the same order of magnitude as naturally occurring levels or even lower. In addition, there is a distinct geographical separation between predominantly forestry and predominantly settled areas where fruit and ornamental trees are cultivated. Accordingly, it was concluded that using the fungus as a biological control agent in forestry is not likely to pose a significant threat to fruit growing and commercial forests.     

Human Interindividual Variability in Cancer Risks—Technical and Management Challenges

Existing risk assessment procedures for carcinogens are intended to be “conservative” in the uncertainty dimension—giving estimates that are expected to be higher than true risks for typical people. However, these procedures do not consider the likely variability in susceptibility among individual people. This paper updates previous estimates of the likely extent of this variability for metabolically activated, genetically-acting carcinogens based on recent information on human interindividual variability in metabolic activation, detoxification, and DNA repair. The resulting expected skewness of cancer risk distributions is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of both variability and uncertainty.

Some risk management implications are:

1. When evaluating the fairness of a particular risk distribution, managers need to gain familiarity with a three-dimensional characterization—X level of risk, for the Yth percentile individual (addressing variability) with Z degree of confidence (addressing uncertainty).

2. To the extent that variability distributions are skewed (e.g., with a long tail extending to high values) population mean risks will tend to exceed risks for median individuals. Together with the skewness in uncertainty distributions, this implies that “expected value” estimates of aggregate population risks—the estimates of interest for cost benefit analyses—are likely to be closer to traditional upper confidence limit risk estimates than has often been assumed in the past.

Noncancer Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Alternative to Current Practice

Based on imperfect data and theory, agencies such as the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) currently derive “reference doses” (RfDs) to guide risk managers charged with ensuring that human exposures to chemicals are below population thresholds. The RfD for a chemical is typically reported as a single number, even though it is widely acknowledged that there are significant uncertainties inherent in the derivation of this number.

In this article, the authors propose a probabilistic alternative to the EPA's method that expresses the human population threshold as a probability distribution of values (rather than a single RfD value), taking into account the major sources of scientific uncertainty in such estimates. The approach is illustrated using much of the same data that USEPA uses to justify their current RfD procedure.

Like the EPA's approach, our approach recognizes the four key extrapolations that are necessary to define the human population threshold based on animal data: animal to human, human heterogeneity, LOAEL to NOAEL, and subchronic to chronic. Rather than using available data to define point estimates of “uncertainty factors” for these extrapolations, the proposed approach uses available data to define a probability distribution of adjustment factors. These initial characterizations of uncertainty can then be refined when more robust or specific data become available for a particular chemical or class of chemicals.

Quantitative characterization of uncertainty in noncancer risk assessment will be useful to risk managers who face complex trade-offs between control costs and protection of public health. The new approach can help decision-makers understand how much extra control cost must be expended to achieve a specified increase in confidence that the human population threshold is not being exceeded.