Future climate change driven sea‐level rise: secondary consequences from human displacement for island biodiversity

Sea‐level rise (SLR) due to global warming will result in the loss of many coastal areas. The direct or primary effects due to inundation and erosion from SLR are currently being assessed; however, the indirect or secondary ecological effects, such as changes caused by the displacement of human populations, have not been previously evaluated. We examined the potential ecological consequences of future SLR on >1,200 islands in the Southeast Asian and the Pacific region. Using three SLR scenarios (1, 3, and 6 m elevation, where 1 m approximates most predictions by the end of this century), we assessed the consequences of primary and secondary SLR effects from human displacement on habitat availability and distributions of selected mammal species. We estimate that between 3–32% of the coastal zone of these islands could be lost from primary effects, and consequently 8–52 million people would become SLR refugees. Assuming that inundated urban and intensive agricultural areas will be relocated with an equal area of habitat loss in the hinterland, we project that secondary SLR effects can lead to an equal or even higher percent range loss than primary effects for at least 10–18% of the sample mammals in a moderate range loss scenario and for 22–46% in a maximum range loss scenario. In addition, we found some species to be more vulnerable to secondary than primary effects. Finally, we found high spatial variation in vulnerability: species on islands in Oceania are more vulnerable to primary SLR effects, whereas species on islands in Indo‐Malaysia, with potentially 7–48 million SLR refugees, are more vulnerable to secondary effects. Our findings show that primary and secondary SLR effects can have enormous consequences for human inhabitants and island biodiversity, and that both need to be incorporated into ecological risk assessment, conservation, and regional planning.     

On humans and wildlife in Mediterranean islands

Aim To investigate the effects of human‐induced landscape changes in Mediterranean islands on the ecological and evolutionary responses of bird communities and populations. The combination of mass extinction of large mammals and massive deforestation by humans was hypothesized to produce new selection regimes to which organisms were likely to respond. Habitat selection and niche breadth have been investigated at the scale of species, and phenotypic variation at the scale of local populations. Location The study was carried out along habitat gradients and in habitat mosaics at different spatial scales on the island of Corsica and in areas of similar size and structure in continental France. Methods Two sets of gradients have been used for investigating habitat selection and niche breadth: gradients of altitude, and gradients of vegetation structure. Population studies focused on the blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus. Large samples of breeding attempts by this species in 10 habitats provided detailed data on phenotypic variation of fitness‐related traits both on Corsica and on the mainland. Results The extent of niche space used by birds differed substantially depending on which habitat gradient was considered. Many species have been found to contract their habitat niche along the elevation gradient on Corsica compared with the mainland, whereas all species in the vegetation gradient broadened their niche on the island. Breeding patterns of the blue tit differed considerably depending on whether they settle in deciduous oaks (Quercus humilis) or in evergreen sclerophyllous oaks (Quercus ilex). Phenotypic variation of breeding traits was much higher on the island, where more populations were correctly timed for the best breeding period than on the mainland, a pattern that is likely to result from lower dispersal of organisms on the island. Main conclusions The differences in observed niche breadth between the two series of habitat gradients is explained both by the species‐specific ecology of the species and the human‐induced environmental history of Corsica. Large‐scale landscape changes provided new opportunities for island colonization by non‐forest species, which are isolated as small, ‘fugitive’ local populations. In both gradients, forest species that are typical components of the Corsican bird fauna definitely expanded their niche and occupied a wider range of habitats on Corsica than on the mainland. At the population scale, landscapes included habitat patches with contrasted selection regimes, which resulted in high phenotypic variation for many fitness‐related traits. Reduced dispersal of birds on the island resulted in a much higher degree of local differentiation on Corsica than on the mainland.     

Distribution patterns and insular biogeography of South Asian raptor communities

Ten diurnal raptor communities (Falconiformes) were studied in continental and peninsular situations, and on landbridge and oceanic islands of various sizes, from Southern India to Southern Vietnam and from Sri Lanka to Java. An index of abundance was derived from 1-km² sample plots. A consistent decrease of species richness occurred from continent to peninsulas and to large landbridge islands, then more abruptly to oceanic islands. The impoverishment process was much faster for open habitat raptors than for forest species, and for rarest and most specialized raptors than for common and more generalist species. Large taxa survived on islands as well as smaller species. Specific habitat requirements, historical factors and forest fragmentation were probably more important determinants of community composition than land area itself. An insular syndrome was documented in forest species on islands, including significant examples of habitat niche expansion, interspecific segregation and density compensation. Some cases suggested that interspecific competition was involved. Such relaxation of habitat and density constraints may enhance the survival probability of these species on islands.     

Novel summary metrics for insular biotic assemblages based on taxonomy and phylogeny: Biogeographical,palaeogeographical and possible conservational applications

Using the land‐bound vertebrates on the marine islands as model organisms, two metrics are presented that permit quantitative and succinct synopses of the ‘evolutionary maturity’ of the hosted faunal assemblages. In turn, these reflect the geo‐physical settings and geological developments of the substrates. The assemblage lineage‐taxonomy spectrum (ALTS) is based on the constituent lineages’ taxonomic distinctiveness and diversity. Individual lineages within assemblages can in most cases be assigned to one of six categories, LT1?LT6: LT1 is a non‐endemic taxon, whereas LT6 comprises multiple endemic genera from a family that arose elsewhere. If required, the scheme can be expanded: LT9 is an endemic order. The data can then be combined to provide an assemblage spectrum, for example, 00:08:38:30:08:15[ 13 ]. Here, the first six values denote the number of lineages assigned to each category expressed as percentages of the overall total, with the sum of the processed lineages listed as the seventh (in brackets and bold). The ALTS metric highlights efficiently the key features of a marine island's biological assemblage. Notably, the contrast between spectra for suites on geologically and geo‐physically varied island types can be striking, for instance the squamate suite on the young, proximate orogenic margin island of Taiwan is coded 78:16:05:00:00:00[ 37 ] whereas the one on the distantly located, Late Eocene composite terrane island of New Caledonia is 00:11:00:11:33:44[ 9 ]. To overcome the subjectivity that is inherent in assigning supraspecific ranks, an alternative assemblage lineage‐age spectrum (ALAS) is also introduced that makes use of the binary logarithm values of the colonization times of the island lineages (0–2, 2–4, … , 32–64, >64 Ma). It is represented using a seven‐plus‐two‐number code, for instance Madagascar's squamates are 00:06:00:00:19:62:12[ 19 ( 16 )]; most colonizations took place in the Palaeogene (66–23 Ma); there are 19 lineages, but only 16 are presently age‐dated. In addition to marine‐island biogeography studies, the ALTS–ALAS spectrum approach is potentially useful for encapsulating biotas in other sorts of insular setting (e.g. lakes, mountain tops), and for evaluating palaeogeographical models. Furthermore, it may help emphasize the conservation value of an island's faunal assemblage.     

Fine-Scale Genetic Structure and Demographic History in the Miyako Islands of the Ryukyu Archipelago

The Ryukyu Archipelago is located in the southwest of the Japanese islands and is composed of dozens of islands, grouped into the Miyako Islands, Yaeyama Islands, and Okinawa Islands. Based on the results of principal component analysis on genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms, genetic differentiation was observed among the island groups of the Ryukyu Archipelago. However, a detailed population structure analysis of the Ryukyu Archipelago has not yet been completed. We obtained genomic DNA samples from 1,240 individuals living in the Miyako Islands, and we genotyped 665,326 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to infer population history within the Miyako Islands, including Miyakojima, Irabu, and Ikema islands. The haplotype-based analysis showed that populations in the Miyako Islands were divided into three subpopulations located on Miyakojima northeast, Miyakojima southwest, and Irabu/Ikema. The results of haplotype sharing and the D statistics analyses showed that the Irabu/Ikema subpopulation received gene flows different from those of the Miyakojima subpopulations, which may be related with the historically attested immigration during the Gusuku period (900 − 500 BP). A coalescent-based demographic inference suggests that the Irabu/Ikema population firstly split away from the ancestral Ryukyu population about 41 generations ago, followed by a split of the Miyako southwest population from the ancestral Ryukyu population (about 16 generations ago), and the differentiation of the ancestral Ryukyu population into two populations (Miyako northeast and Okinawajima populations) about seven generations ago. Such genetic information is useful for explaining the population history of modern Miyako people and must be taken into account when performing disease association studies.     

Island properties dominate species traits in determining plant colonizations in an archipelago system

The extrinsic determinants hypothesis emphasizes the essential role of environmental heterogeneity in species’ colonization. Consequently, high resident species diversity can increase community susceptibility to colonizations because good habitats may support more species that are functionally similar to colonizers. On the other hand, colonization success is also likely to depend on species traits. We tested the relative importance of environmental characteristics and species traits in determining colonization success using census data of 587 vascular plant species collected about 70 yr apart from 471 islands in the archipelago of SW Finland. More specifically, we explored potential new colonization as a function of island properties (e.g. location, area, habitat diversity, number of resident species per unit area), species traits (e.g. plant height, life-form, dispersal vector, Ellenberg indicator values, association with human impact), and species’ historical distributions (number of inhabited islands, nearest occurrence). Island properties and species’ historical distributions were more effective than plant traits in explaining colonization outcomes. Contrary to the extrinsic determinants hypothesis, colonization success was neither associated with resident species diversity nor habitat diversity per se, although colonization was lowest on sparsely vegetated islands. Our findings lead us to propose that while plant traits related to dispersal and establishment may enhance colonization, predictions of plant colonizations primarily require understanding of habitat properties and species’ historical distributions.     

Phylogenetic diversity and community assembly in a naturally fragmented system

We sought to assess effects of fragmentation and quantify the contribution of ecological processes to community assembly by measuring species richness, phylogenetic, and phenotypic diversity of species found in local and regional plant communities. Specifically, our fragmented system is Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve, Idaho, USA. CRMO is characterized by vegetated islands, kipukas, that are isolated in a matrix of lava. We used floristic surveys of vascular plants in 19 kipukas to create a local species list to compare traditional dispersion metrics, mean pairwise distance, and mean nearest taxon distance (MPD and MNTD), to a regional species list with phenotypic and phylogenetic data. We combined phylogenetic and functional trait data in a novel machine‐learning model selection approach, Community Assembly Model Inference (CAMI), to infer probability associated with different models of community assembly given the data. Finally, we used linear regression to explore whether the geography of kipukas explained estimated support for community assembly models. Using traditional metrics of MPD and MNTD neutral processes received the most support when comparing kipuka species to regional species. Individually no kipukas showed significant support for overdispersion. Rather, five kipukas showed significant support for phylogenetic clustering using MPD and two kipukas using MNTD. Using CAMI, we inferred neutral and filtering models structured the kipuka plant community for our trait of interest. Finally, we found as species richness in kipukas increases, model support for competition decreases and lower elevation kipukas show more support for habitat filtering models. While traditional phylogenetic community approaches suggest neutral assembly dynamics, recently developed approaches utilizing machine learning and model choice revealed joint influences of assembly processes to form the kipuka plant communities. Understanding ecological processes at play in naturally fragmented systems will aid in guiding our understanding of how fragmentation impacts future changes in landscapes.