Breeding synchrony in colonial birds: from local stress to global harmony

Why and how birds in colonies often breed in striking synchrony is an unsolved question. In colonies, conspecific birds often destroy eggs and kill chicks, either intentionally or not. We propose that social tranquillity at the time of laying can be achieved if a bird's stress level is partly determined by the agitation of its neighbours. Moreover, we propose that this local process, together with environmental cues, can synchronize breeding between neighbours and through a whole colony. We tested our hypotheses using a generic individual-based model where the breeding predisposition of females was updated daily depending on an increase in the photoperiod (positively) and the stress level of neighbours: negatively if they were agitated, and positively otherwise. A female laid her eggs when her stress level fell to a critical value. Even giving only a low relevance to the neighbour's stress level was enough to synchronize the laying date of neighbours and also of a huge colony. Moreover, females bred in a safer environment, which is known from field studies to increase fitness. Our study highlights the power of local adaptive (individual) behaviour to create global (colony) patterns. We argue that collective patterns such as breeding synchrony in colonial birds could have simple adaptive individual-level explanations.     

Modeling Daphnia population dynamics and demography under natural conditions

Various approaches to modeling the population dynamics and demography of Daphnia have been published. These methods range from the simple egg-ratio method, to mathematically complex models based on partial differential equations and numerically complex individual-based Daphnia population models. The usefulness of these models in unraveling the population dynamics and demography of Daphnia under natural conditions is discussed. Next to this, an extended version of an existing individual-based Daphnia model is documented (Cladosim) and its application to a typical field data set collected in 1995 in Lake Volkerak is shown. To answer the question which factor was limiting Daphnia numbers during the course of the season food level and temperature in the model were varied and results were compared with those obtained for the observed food level and temperature. These analysis showed that in April temperature was limiting while during May–July and September–October food was limiting. In August neither temperature nor food was limiting. Analysis with a set of size-selective mortality scenarios showed that on average the Daphnia population in Lake Volkerak experienced a mild positive size-selective mortality during the year that was analyzed. Birth rates derived with the detailed individual-based model were compared with those derived with the much simpler egg-ratio method. For the conditions as observed in Lake Volkerak in 1995, both methods gave very comparable results, despite sampling intervals of up to four weeks. The same holds under the environmental scenarios. Using the size-selective mortality scenarios it could be shown, however, that under strong mortality of the smaller daphnids, the egg-ratio method severely underestimates the birth rate. The vices and virtues of the new model and potential extensions are discussed.     

Modeling of the Oncorhynchus nerka Population of Dal'neye Lake (Kamchatka) Applying an Individual-Based Method

A computer model of the sockeye salmon (Onchorhynchus nerka) population from Dal'neye Lake (Kamchatka) based on the results of long-term research was developed. As opposed to an earlier published model [4], the stochastic approach and individual-based method were used in the present model. The application of such techniques in the model has enabled study of the dynamics of the genetic structure of the population under the effect of varying environments, both in the sea and in the fresh-water period of the sockeye's life, and discovery of patterns of transition from the cyclic fluctuation mode to the mode of chaotic change of number.     

Modelling food web complexity: The consequences of individual-based, spatially explicit behavioural ecology on trophic interactions

We present a prototype simulator that enables one to explore the influence of individual behaviour on the dynamics and structural complexity of food webs. In the simulations, individuals act according to simple, biologically plausible rules in a spatially explicit setting. We present the results of a series of simulation experiments on artificial, tri-trophic level food chains used to calibrate the simulator against real-world systems and to demonstrate the simulators promise for ecological modelling. Our primary objective was to discover the biological features leading to stability of artificial food chains over ecological time and under different conditions of trophic efficiency. This involved a qualitative analysis of food chains comprised of a plant, a herbivore and a carnivore species. We explored the consequences of allowing individual heterotrophs to make active choices about resource selection (perception and intentional behaviour) under high and low degrees of trophic efficiency. We found that individuals had to adopt realistic behavioural ecological strategies, such as active resource selection, for systems to persist, especially under conditions in which trophic efficiencies were of the magnitude observed in real systems (e.g. 10%). Our results reaffirm previous convictions that a better understanding of food web interactions in real-world systems will require approaches that blend animal behavioural ecology with population and community ecology. However, the evidence comes from a new mathematical perspective.     

Lifetime productivity of dairy cows in smallholder farming systems of the Central highlands of Kenya

Evaluation of lifetime productivity is sensible to target interventions for improving productivity of smallholder dairy systems in the highlands of East Africa, because cows are normally not disposed of based on productive reasons. Feeding strategies and involuntary culling may have long-term effects on productive (and therefore economic) performance of dairy systems. Because of the temporal scale needed to evaluate lifetime productivity, experimentation with feedstuffs in single lactations is not enough to assess improvements in productivity. A dynamic modelling approach was used to explore the effect of feeding strategies on the lifetime productivity of dairy cattle. We used LIVSIM (LIVestock SIMulator), an individual-based, dynamic model in which performance depends on genetic potential of the breed and feeding. We tested the model for the highlands of Central Kenya, and simulated individual animals throughout their lifetime using scenarios with different diets based on common feedstuffs used in these systems (Napier grass, maize stover and dairy concentrates), with and without imposing random mortality on different age classes. The simulations showed that it is possible to maximise lifetime productivity by supplementing concentrates to meet the nutrient requirements of cattle during lactation, and during early development to reduce age at first calving and extend productive life. Avoiding undernutrition during the dry period by supplementing the diet with 0.5 kg of concentrates per day helped to increase productivity and productive life, but in practice farmers may not perceive the immediate economic benefits because the results of this practice are manifested through a cumulative, long-term effect. Survival analyses indicated that unsupplemented diets prolong calving intervals and therefore, reduce lifetime productivity. The simulations with imposed random mortality showed a reduction of 43% to 65% in all productivity indicators. Milk production may be increased on average by 1400 kg per lactation by supplementing the diet with 5 kg of concentrates during early lactation and 1 kg during late lactation, although the optimal supplementation may change according to milk and concentrate prices. Reducing involuntary culling must be included as a key goal when designing interventions to improve productivity and sustainability of smallholder dairy systems, because increasing lifetime productivity may have a larger impact on smallholders’ income than interventions targeted to only improving daily milk yields through feeding strategies.     

General response patterns of fish populations to stress: an evaluation using an individual-based simulation model

General response patterns of fish populations tostress, originally proposed by Colby for fisheriesrehabilitation and later adapted by Munkittrick forcontaminants, were evaluated using an individual-basedsimulation model. General response patterns relatechanges in population-level variables to the type ofstress. The model follows the daily growth,mortality, and spawning of individual yellow perch andwalleye through their lifetime, and was corroboratedusing Oneida Lake data. Two versions of the model wereused: population (yellow perch only) and community(dynamic predation on yellow perch by walleye). Eightstresses were imposed on the population and communityversions of the model and 100-year simulations wereperformed. Response patterns were defined by changesin predicted yellow perch mean population abundance,mean age of adults, and mean adult growth (representedby mean length at age-7). Proposed response patternswere similar to those predicted using the populationversion of the model. Simulations using the communityversion of the model distorted the response patterns,either causing amplification, dampening, or reversalof many of the patterns. Predicted response patternsbecame unique when additional variables were included.Our model results suggest that caution is appropriatein interpreting general response patterns based onmean age, or when the population of interest plays amajor role in a relatively simple food web. The responsepattern approach may be better at identifying the lifestage impacted rather than the mechanism of the stress.     

From theory to practice in pattern-oriented modelling: identifying and using empirical patterns in predictive models

To robustly predict the effects of disturbance and ecosystem changes on species, it is necessary to produce structurally realistic models with high predictive power and flexibility. To ensure that these models reflect the natural conditions necessary for reliable prediction, models must be informed and tested using relevant empirical observations. Pattern-oriented modelling (POM) offers a systematic framework for employing empirical patterns throughout the modelling process and has been coupled with complex systems modelling, such as in agent-based models (ABMs). However, while the production of ABMs has been rising rapidly, the explicit use of POM has not increased. Challenges with identifying patterns and an absence of specific guidelines on how to implement empirical observations may limit the accessibility of POM and lead to the production of models which lack a systematic consideration of reality. This review serves to provide guidance on how to identify and apply patterns following a POM approach in ABMs (POM-ABMs), specifically addressing: where in the ecological hierarchy can we find patterns; what kinds of patterns are useful; how should simulations and observations be compared; and when in the modelling cycle are patterns used? The guidance and examples provided herein are intended to encourage the application of POM and inspire efficient identification and implementation of patterns for both new and experienced modellers alike. Additionally, by generalising patterns found especially useful for POM-ABM development, these guidelines provide practical help for the identification of data gaps and guide the collection of observations useful for the development and verification of predictive models. Improving the accessibility and explicitness of POM could facilitate the production of robust and structurally realistic models in the ecological community, contributing to the advancement of predictive ecology at large.     

Spatially structured intraspecific trait variation can foster biodiversity in disturbed,heterogeneous environments

Trait variation within populations is an important area of research for empirical and theoretical ecologists. While differences between individuals are doubtlessly ubiquitous, their role for species coexistence is much less clear and highly debated. Both unstructured (random) and structured (linked to space, time or inheritance) intraspecific trait variation (ITV) may modify species interactions with nontrivial consequences for emerging community compositions. In many ecosystems, these compositions are further driven by prevalent disturbance regimes. I therefore explored the effects of unstructured as well as spatially structured ITV under disturbances in a generic ecological model of competing sessile species. Using spatially explicit, individual‐based simulations, I studied how intraspecific variation in life history traits together with interspecific tradeoffs and disturbance regimes shape long‐term community composition. I found that 1) unstructured ITV does not affect species coexistence in the given context, 2) spatially structured ITV may considerably increase coexistence, but 3) spatially clumped disturbances reduce this effect of spatially structured ITV, especially if interspecific tradeoffs involve dispersal distance. The findings suggest that spatially structured ITV with individual trait responses to local habitat conditions differing among species may create or expand humps in disturbance–diversity relationships. Hence, if present, these forms of spatially structured ITV should be included in ecological models and will be important for reliably assessing community responses to environmental heterogeneity and change.