Spatial Prediction of Invasion Success Across Heterogeneous Landscapes using an Individual-Based Model

The limited resources available for managing invasive plant species in native ecosystems and the magnitude of the problem make it essential that we develop methods to prioritize sites for management efforts. We used the individual-based simulation model ECOTONE in conjunction with climate and soil texture data to identify grassland site types where the invasive perennial forb Acroptilon repens is likely to be successful, and to create a threat map indicating the most vulnerable regions of Colorado. Acroptilon repens has the potential to become most abundant in dry areas with fine-textured soils. This information can be used to direct management efforts towards the areas at greatest risk, allowing the most effective use of limited resources. The most common approach for identifying invasible regions has been to extrapolate from the locations of existing invasions to find similar sites. Two major drawbacks to this method are the lack of consideration of the role of the existing plant community in inhibiting or facilitating invasion, and the assumption that the invading species is at equilibrium with the environment. The combination of an individual-based simulation model and a geographic information system provides a flexible tool to investigate the community and regional dynamics of invasive plant species.     

Intake rates and the functional response in shorebirds (Charadriiformes) eating macro-invertebrates

As field determinations take much effort, it would be useful to be able to predict easily the coefficients describing the functional response of free-living predators, the function relating food intake rate to the abundance of food organisms in the environment. As a means easily to parameterise an individual-based model of shorebird Charadriiformes populations, we attempted this for shorebirds eating macro-invertebrates. Intake rate is measured as the ash-free dry mass (AFDM) per second of active foraging; i.e. excluding time spent on digestive pauses and other activities, such as preening. The present and previous studies show that the general shape of the functional response in shorebirds eating approximately the same size of prey across the full range of prey density is a decelerating rise to a plateau, thus approximating the Holling type II ('disc equation') formulation. But field studies confirmed that the asymptote was not set by handling time, as assumed by the disc equation, because only about half the foraging time was spent in successfully or unsuccessfully attacking and handling prey, the rest being devoted to searching.A review of 30 functional responses showed that intake rate in free-living shorebirds varied independently of prey density over a wide range, with the asymptote being reached at very low prey densities (<150/m-2). Accordingly, most of the many studies of shorebird intake rate have probably been conducted at or near the asymptote of the functional response, suggesting that equations that predict intake rate should also predict the asymptote.A multivariate analysis of 468 'spot' estimates of intake rates from 26 shorebirds identified ten variables, representing prey and shorebird characteristics, that accounted for 81% of the variance in logarithm-transformed intake rate. But four-variables accounted for almost as much (77.3%), these being bird size, prey size, whether the bird was an oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus eating mussels Mytilus edulis, or breeding. The four variable equation under-predicted, on average, the observed 30 estimates of the asymptote by 11.6%, but this discrepancy was reduced to 0.2% when two suspect estimates from one early study in the 1960s were removed. The equation therefore predicted the observed asymptote very successfully in 93% of cases. We conclude that the asymptote can be reliably predicted from just four easily measured variables. Indeed, if the birds are not breeding and are not oystercatchers eating mussels, reliable predictions can be obtained using just two variables, bird and prey sizes. A multivariate analysis of 23 estimates of the half-asymptote constant suggested they were smaller when prey were small but greater when the birds were large, especially in oystercatchers. The resulting equation could be used to predict the half-asymptote constant, but its predictive power has yet to be tested. As well as predicting the asymptote of the functional response, the equations will enable research workers engaged in many areas of shorebird ecology and behaviour to estimate intake rate without the need for conventional time-consuming field studies, including species for which it has not yet proved possible to measure intake rate in the field.     

Risky movement increases the rate of range expansion

The movement rules used by an individual determine both its survival and dispersal success. Here, we develop a simple model that links inter-patch movement behaviour with population dynamics in order to explore how individual dispersal behaviour influences not only its dispersal and survival, but also the population's rate of range expansion. Whereas dispersers are most likely to survive when they follow nearly straight lines and rapidly orient movement towards a non-natal patch, the most rapid rates of range expansion are obtained for trajectories in which individuals delay biasing their movement towards a non-natal patch. This result is robust to the spatial structure of the landscape. Importantly, in a set of evolutionary simulations, we also demonstrate that the movement strategy that evolves at an expanding front is much closer to that maximizing the rate of range expansion than that which maximizes the survival of dispersers. Our results suggest that if one of our conservation goals is the facilitation of range-shifting, then current indices of connectivity need to be complemented by the development and utilization of new indices providing a measure of the ease with which a species spreads across a landscape.     

Differences in the exploitation of bream in three shallow lake systems and their relation to water quality

SUMMARY 1. The development of bream populations, water transparency, chlorophyll‐a concentration, extent of submerged vegetation and densities of the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, were analysed in three shallow eutrophic lake systems subject to different fish management. 2. In Lake Veluwemeer, the bream population was reduced from c. 100 to 20 kg ha^?1 after 5 years of fishing. The mortality caused by the fishery was estimated at 38% of bream >15 cm in addition to a 13% natural mortality of bream >17 cm. The decline was followed by an expansion of the Chara beds present in the shallow parts, an increase in water transparency in the open‐water zone, an increase in the density of zebra mussels and a decrease in chlorophyll‐a concentrations. 3. The newly created Lake Volkerak showed trends opposite to those in Lake Veluwemeer. Bream colonised the lake in 1988 and reached a biomass of c. 140 kg ha^?1 in 1998. The water transparency decreased from a maximum of 3 m to c. 1 m and the chlorophyll‐a concentration increased from 5 to 45 μg L^?1. Submerged vegetation colonised up to 20% of the total lake area in the first 5 years after creation of the lake in 1987 but decreased to 10% as turbidity increased. 4. Seine fishery in the Frisian lake system did not appear to affect the bream population despite annual catches as high as 40–50 kg ha^?1. The estimated natural mortality of fish >15 cm was 15% and mortality by fishery was 26%. The high loss was apparently compensated by good recruitment and high growth rates resulting from a c. 1 °C higher water temperature during the years when bream were removed by fishing. There was only a slight decrease in chlorophyll‐a concentrations and a slight increase in water transparency. 5. The results of this study suggest that the effects of bream exploitation in eutrophic lakes can vary depending on the efficiency of the fishery, recruitment success and temperature regime. In the absence of fishery, bream dominated the fish community in the study lakes and apparently prevented D. polymorpha and submerged vegetation from establishing because of physical disturbance, enhanced internal P‐loading and resettling of resuspended sediments.     

Positive interactions can increase size inequality in plant populations

1.  Large variation in the size of individuals is a ubiquitous feature of natural plant populations. While the role of competition in generating this variation has been studied extensively, the potential effects of positive interactions among plants, which are common in high-stress environments, have not been investigated.
2.  Using an individual-based 'zone-of-influence' model, we investigate the effects of competition, abiotic stress and facilitation on size inequality in plant monocultures. In the model, stress reduces the growth rate of plants, and facilitation ameliorates the effects of stress. Both facilitation and competition occur in overlapping zones of influence. We tested some of the model's predictions with a field experiment using the clonal grass Elymus nutans in an alpine meadow.
3.  Facilitation increased the size inequality of model populations when there was no density-dependent mortality. This effect decreased with density as competition overwhelmed facilitation. The lowest size inequality was found at intermediate densities both with the model and in the field.
4.  When density-dependent mortality was included in the model, stress delayed its onset and reduced its rate by reducing growth rates, so the number of survivors at any point in time was higher under harsh than under more benign conditions. Facilitation increased size inequality during self-thinning.
5.   Synthesis . Our results demonstrate that facilitation interacts with abiotic stress and competition to influence the degree of size inequality in plant populations. Facilitation increased size inequality at low to intermediate densities and during self-thinning.     

Modeling the Individual Growth of Tetrahymena Sp. and its Population Consequences

ABSTRACT. Three types of mathematical growth models are presented to describe the individual growth of the ciliate Tetrahymena sp. feeding on the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens . Both organisms were isolated from a domestic waste-water treatment plant. Growth of individual ciliates and the consequences for the whole population are considered. Experimental data, obtained by following the individual ciliate during its lifespan from cell division to cell division, are used for parameter estimations. Differences between growth models for individuals turn out to have little effect on the specific population growth rate and the mean cell volume. In case of exponential growth of individuals the unstructured and structured population models are equivalent, even in time-variant environments. This knowledge can be applied in the stability analysis of food chains or forced systems. The results obtained facilitates quantification of protozoa biomass as a function of bacterial biomass in chemostats. More specifically, it highlights the dynamic behaviour of bacteria and protozoa in waste-water treatment plants.     

Sediment Toxicity Testing for Prospective Risk Assessment—A New Framework and How to Establish It

There is a recognized need to design a new framework for sediment toxicity testing that meets current scientific standards and regulatory requirements, such as reliable assessment of toxicity, which prevents any harmful effects on biodiversity, a strong capability to predict population- and community-level effects, and applicability of the results to decision-making. We propose a new framework for prospective sediment toxicity testing, and suggest solutions to the key methodological challenges that hinder establishment of this framework (comparison of sensitivities, design of test batteries, consideration of different exposure routes, extrapolations to population and community levels, use of test results for decision-making). The proposed framework consists of the following three units: test-battery system, higher-tier testing systems and additional ecological modeling, and a decision support system. The key methodologies proposed to establish this framework are compound-tailored test-battery use approach, relative sensitivity distribution analysis, toxicity tests that combine bacteria and arthropods, micro- and mesocosms studies, population and community models, and model-driven decision support systems. The proposed framework, as well as the key methods mentioned above, has the potential to improve not only prospective toxicity testing for sediments, but also ecological risk assessment in general.