On some formulas in a partnership model from the perspective of a semi-Markov process

Many deterministic models of sexually transmitted diseases, as well as population models in general, contain elements of stochastic or statistical reasoning. An example of such a model is that of Dietz and Hadeler (1988) concerning sexually transmitted diseases in which there is partnership formation and dissolution. Among the interesting formulas in this paper, which enter into the analysis of the model, are those for the expected number of partners a male or female has during a lifetime. To a probabilist such formulas suggest the possibility that some stochastic process may be constructed so as to yield these formulas as well as others that may be of interest. The principal purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such a stochastic process does indeed exist in the form of a three state semi-Markov process in continuous time with stationary laws of evolution and with a one-step density matrix determined by four parameters which were interpreted as constant latent risk functions in the classical theory of competing risks. This construction of a semi-Markov process not only provides a framework for the systematic derivation of the formulas of Dietz and Hadeler but also suggests pathways,for extensions to the age-dependent case.This research was partially supported by NATO Grant D.890350     

Modelling the effect of treatment and behavioral change in HIV transmission dynamics

In this paper we analyze a model for the HIV-infection transmission in a male homosexual population. In the model we consider two types of infected individuals. Those that are infected but do not know their serological status and/or are not under any sort of clinical /therapeutical treatment, and those who are. The two groups of infectives differ in their incubation time, contact rate with susceptible individuals, and probability of disease transmission. The aim of this article is to study the roles played by detection and changes in sexual behavior in the incidence and prevalence of HIV. The analytical results show that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable under a range of parameter values whenever a detection /treatment rate and an indirect measure of the level of infection risk are sufficiently large. However, any level of detection/ treatment rate coupled with a decrease of the transmission probability lowers the incidence rate and prevalence level in the population. In general, only significant reductions in the transmission probability (achieved through, for example, the adoption of safe sexual practices) can contain effectively the spread of the disease.     

Characterisation and pathogenicity of bacteria from shoot tips of the globe artichoke (Cynara scolymus L.)

Bacteria have been isolated from shoot tips of symptomless globe artichoke plants. These were identified as Pseudomonas fluorescens, Pseudomonas marginalis, Pseudomonas spp., Serratia liquefaciens, Enterobacter agglomerans/Erwinia, Agrobacterium radiobacter, an unidentified member of Rhizobiaceae and another classified in the “corynebacteria” group. The most frequently isolated species was P. fluorescens, biovars II and III. The endogenous character of these bacteria was studied in plants growing in vitro and in the open field. P. fluorescens, P. marginalis, S. liquefaciens and E. agglomerans/Erwinia caused symptoms in plants growing in vitro, but only P. fluorescens biovar II and P. marginalis produced symptoms in plants growing in open fields. Differences in pathogenicity were observed on inoculated plants growing in vitro or in the open field. This suggests that several endophytic bacterial species may be responsible for the high levels of contaminants found during the micropropagation of globe artichoke.     

东方次睾吸虫电镜研究(吸虫纲:后睾科)V.雌性生殖器官

东方次睾吸虫雌性生殖器官（卵巢、输卵管、卵黄－输卵管、卵模、梅氏腺和子宫）透射电镜 观察。卵巢内有不同成熟期的生殖细胞,成熟初级卵母细胞有几个靠近核的核仁样小聚体和许多沿 质膜的皮质颗粒。首次发现并描述卵巢和输卵管接合处（卵巢壶腹）的超微结构。输卵管上皮为纤 毛状。梅氏腺仅一种类型膜状小体细胞,经有微管支持的细小管道穿过卵模将膜状小体排入卵模腔 内。在卵黄－输卵管和卵模中有精子,卵模和子宫中有受精卵、虫卵（扫描电镜）：大小 ２６. ０５× １１．４６－１３．５５μｍ,卵盖直径６．２６－６. ８９μｐ,卵壳表面布满膜状隆起。文中对卵巢和梅氏腺的超微 结构特点进行了讨论。     

Effect of temperature on development rate and intrinsic rate of increase ofAphis gossypii reared on greenhouse cucumbers

Thermal requirements for development and life table statistics ofAphis gossypii Glover (Homoptera, Aphididae) were determined over a range of constant temperatures from 10 to 30°C. The lower development threshold and the sum of effective temperatures were 6.9°C and 90.1°C, respectively, for preimaginal development, and 5.8°C and 113.6°C from birth to the onset of reproduction. Mean total fecundity ranged from 36 larvae per female at 10°C to 76 larvae at 30°C. On a time scale of days, net reproductive rate (R _o ) increased with increasing temperature while generation time (T) decreased causing the intrinsic rate of increase (r _m ) to increase linearly from 0.115 to 0.465. On a day-degree scaler _m only varied from 0.019 to 0.028 because the growth ofR _o was compensated by an increase inT with increase in temperature. The nearly constantr _m in terms of day-degrees, over a wide range of temperatures, greatly simplifies the prediction of future population numbers ofA. gossypii.     

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF MITOCHONDRIAL DNA VARIANTS AND THE HISTORICAL BIOGEOGRAPHY OF THE SPOTTED SALAMANDER,AMBYSTOMA MACULATUM

I analyzed geographic partitioning of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) restriction-site variants in the spotted salamander, Ambystoma maculatum. Two highly divergent and geographically separate genetic lineages were identified that differed by a minimum of 19 restriction sites (6% sequence divergence). One of the lineages has a disjunct distribution with very closely related haplotypes occurring in Missouri, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Virginia. The other lineage is found in Michigan, Illinois, and Alabama. The geographic separation of highly divergent mtDNA haplotypes, a pattern that was predicted based on the sedentary nature of these salamanders, is evidence for long-term barriers to gene flow. In contrast, the large-scale disjunction of very similar haplotypes suggests recent, long-distance gene flow and does not match the phylogeographic expectation for a small terrestrial vertebrate. I explain this potential contradiction in the level of importance assigned to gene flow by a scenario in which historical barriers to gene flow account for the two divergent mtDNA assemblages, but stochastic sorting of ancestral polymorphism is responsible for the large-scale geographic disjunction. Ten of 16 populations collected in the Ozark Highlands were fixed for the same haplotype. I attribute this lack of detectable variation to recent colonization of this area, a hypothesis that is supported by paleoecological data and demonstrates the potential benefits of combining data from paleobotany, geology, and other disciplines to reconstruct the historical biogeography of a species.     

THE DISTRIBUTION AND ORIGIN OF GENES FOR RACE-SPECIFIC RESISTANCE TO MELAMPSORA LINI IN LINUM MARGINALE

The genetic basis of resistance in wild flax (Linum marginale) to its host-specific pathogen Melampsora lini was investigated in seven lines collected from a single population growing at Kiandra, New South Wales and in an additional ten lines collected more widely across southeastern Australia. All lines showed different phenotypic patterns of resistance and susceptibility. Genetic analyses indicated the presence of single dominant genes for race-specific resistance in all but one of these lines. That particular line appeared to carry two linked dominant genes for resistance. Intercrosses between lines in each of these groups of L. marginale detected substantially more linkage between the resistance genes in the Kiandra population sample than between those in the broader geographic collection. This result is interpreted to indicate a possible mechanism whereby resistance genes are generated in natural populations.     

Ostrincola humesi sp. nov., a myicolid copepod (Poecilostomatoida) parasitic in rock oysters cultured in the Gulf of Thailand

A new species of poecilostomatoid copepod, Ostrincola humesi (Myicolidae), is described, based on specimens collected from the mantle cavity of the rock oyster, Saccostrea cucullata (Born), cultured in the Gulf of Thailand. A close comparison was made between the new species and Ostrincola koe Tanaka with which the new species was previously confused. A key to the nine species of Ostrincola is provided.     

The effects of prolonged emersion and submersion by tidal manipulation on marine macrobenthos

Effects of tidal manipulation, resulting in prolonged periods of emersion and submersion or in protracted tidal cycles, on estuarine benthic animals are reviewed.Prolonged submersion periods did not show effects on mortality of most benthic animals tested, with the exception of the crumb-of-bread sponge Halichondrea panicea, which, at low water-flow rates, was covered with a layer of bacteria and subsequently died.Protracted low-water periods of 18 hours during several weeks hardly caused any mortality. However, protracted low-water periods of 30 hours during some weeks or emersion during several days caused a strong increase in mortality, depending on: the duration of emersion, temperature, condition of the animals, species and age. At temperatures below –1 °C and above 24 °C mortality was generally high. Animals with a low glycogen content were more sensitive to emersion than those with a high content. Species with a shell and those that are relatively big were less sensitive than those without a shell or of small size.The reproductive cycle of benthic animals could be delayed or accelerated by both emersion and submersion.     

Diel variability in catch rate of juvenile flatfish on two small nursery grounds (Port Erin Bay, Isle of Man and Porto Pirn Bay, Faial, Azores)

Variation in beach seine catches was examined in two juvenile flatfish populations (Port Erin, Isle of Man and Porto Pirn, Azores) to determine the importance of diel cycles while controlling for tidal rhythmicity. At Port Erin sampling was undertaken at each low water on consecutive days over a 2-week period in May/June and September 1991. There was no periodicity in the catches of plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa ) in May/June, but in September catches were higher at night. Other flatfish species ( Limanda limanda, Pleuronectes flesus, Scophthalmus maximus and S. rhombus ) sampled at Port Erin were nocturnal. At Porto Pirn, Azores, fish were sampled over 24 h each month from July 1989 to June 1990 and at each low water over a 2-week period in July 1991. The only flatfish species present was Bothuspodas , which had a diurnal pattern in catches over a 1-year period. Sampling at low water in July gave high catches at both midnight and midday.