中国地衣的濒危等级评估

地衣是大型真菌的重要组成部分, 是中国大型真菌红色名录评估的主要对象之一。本次评估的地衣共2,164种, 其中子囊菌地衣2,145种, 担子菌地衣19种, 分属于2门9纲34目92科352属。评估结果显示, 地衣受威胁物种共28种, 占被评估地衣物种总数的1.29%, 其中极危3种, 濒危7种, 易危18种; 近危6种, 无危657种, 而数据不足的物种达1,473种。这类因为缺乏足够的数据资料而未能进一步评估其生存状态和红色名录等级的物种占评估地衣总数的68.07%, 凸显了我国地衣学研究的严峻形势及对地衣分类学人才的迫切需要。对受威胁物种的分析表明, 地衣由于自身生长缓慢和对环境污染敏感, 并且绝大多数分布区域狭窄, 种群数量少, 对生境退化的适应和恢复生长的能力弱, 人类活动和气候变化导致的栖息地破坏和碎片化使得这些地衣的生存受到严重威胁。值得注意的是, 评为易危的一些地衣, 因具有较大的食药用价值而被过度采挖利用, 如不采取有效保护措施, 其受威胁程度将进一步加剧。     

土地流转背景下不同经营规模青田稻鱼共生系统的环境影响差异——基于碳足迹的实证研究

在快速工业化和城镇化的影响下,农业文化遗产的保护与管理正面临着适龄劳动力大量外流、土地抛荒、传统知识体系难以维持等诸多威胁与挑战。推动土地流转、进行适度规模经营,可在农业文化遗产的保护中产生积极作用。土地流转在给遗产地带来经济效益的同时,对当地生态环境产生的影响变化同样值得关注,但现有研究却少有涉及。本研究以全球重要农业文化遗产——浙江青田稻鱼共生系统为例,将不同经营规模的稻鱼共生系统分为小农户经营模式和规模化经营模式,运用生命周期法对两种模式的碳足迹进行核算。结果表明: 小农户经营模式和规模化经营模式的碳足迹分别为6510.80和5917.00 kg CO₂-eq·hm^-2,单位产值碳足迹分别为0.13和0.10 kg CO₂-eq·yuan^-1。与小农户经营模式相比,规模化经营模式温室气体排放更少,单位产值的环境影响更小。农户扩大经营规模后,当地温室气体排放减少了4097.20 kg CO₂-eq。农业生产过程中积累的CH₄在碳足迹中占比最大,农业生产资料中复合肥是仅次于CH₄的第二大温室气体排放来源。对于小农户经营模式,饲料中使用的玉米和小麦也对温室气体排放有重要的影响。因此,推动土地适度规模经营,有利于传统农业系统实现经济效益和环境效益的双赢,对于农业文化遗产保护具有重要作用。     

IPBES框架下的生物多样性和生态系统服务区域评估及政策经验

生物多样性和生态系统服务为人类的生计和良好的生活质量奠定了重要基础。然而, 越来越多的研究表明, 生物多样性和生态系统服务在全球范围内的持续下降使自然对人类的贡献大幅降低。多尺度评估能够说明不同尺度下生物多样性的现状, 有利于制定适合区域特点、符合国情的决策建议。2013年12月, 生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学政策平台(Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, IPBES)通过第一轮工作方案, 决定开展“区域/次区域生物多样性和生态系统服务评估”(简称“区域评估”), 即评估亚洲-太平洋(简称亚太)、美洲、非洲以及欧洲-中亚四大地理区域的生物多样性和生态系统服务。区域评估报告及其决策者摘要已在IPBES第六次全体会议上(2018年3月, 哥伦比亚麦德林)审议通过。本文概述了四大地理区域的生物多样性的重要性、生物多样性保护领域取得的进展、面临的主要危机和机遇, 探讨了评估对其他国际进程的影响, 综合分析了各区域生物多样性和生态系统服务的特点以及各区域评估结果的差别, 总结了评估的政策经验, 以期为中国的生物多样性保护提供科学参考。     

Native drivers of fish life history traits are lost during the invasion process

Rapid adaptation to global change can counter vulnerability of species to population declines and extinction. Theoretically, under such circumstances both genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can maintain population fitness, but empirical support for this is currently limited. Here, we aim to characterize the role of environmental and genetic diversity, and their prior evolutionary history (via haplogroup profiles) in shaping patterns of life history traits during biological invasion. Data were derived from both genetic and life history traits including a morphological analysis of 29 native and invasive populations of topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva coupled with climatic variables from each location. General additive models were constructed to explain distribution of somatic growth rate (SGR) data across native and invasive ranges, with model selection performed using Akaike's information criteria. Genetic and environmental drivers that structured the life history of populations in their native range were less influential in their invasive populations. For some vertebrates at least, fitness‐related trait shifts do not seem to be dependent on the level of genetic diversity or haplogroup makeup of the initial introduced propagule, nor of the availability of local environmental conditions being similar to those experienced in their native range. As long as local conditions are not beyond the species physiological threshold, its local establishment and invasive potential are likely to be determined by local drivers, such as density‐dependent effects linked to resource availability or to local biotic resistance.     

Covid‐19.bioreproducibility.org: A web resource for SARS‐CoV‐2‐related structural models

The COVID‐19 pandemic has triggered numerous scientific activities aimed at understanding the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus and ultimately developing treatments. Structural biologists have already determined hundreds of experimental X‐ray, cryo‐EM, and NMR structures of proteins and nucleic acids related to this coronavirus, and this number is still growing. To help biomedical researchers, who may not necessarily be experts in structural biology, navigate through the flood of structural models, we have created an online resource, covid19.bioreproducibility.org, that aggregates expert‐verified information about SARS‐CoV‐2‐related macromolecular models. In this article, we describe this web resource along with the suite of tools and methodologies used for assessing the structures presented therein.     

中国濒危兽类栖息地评估与保护研究进展与展望

目前全球物种正以前所未有的速度灭绝,对野生动物栖息地开展有效的评估与科学的保护是阻止濒危物种走向灭绝,保持其可持续生存与发展的重要前提和手段。本文针对我国的食肉类、有蹄类、灵长类、小型兽类、海洋兽类5个类别的濒危兽类,综述了其栖息地评估与保护研究进展的现状和成果,对相关学术成果进行了归纳与分析,以期为栖息地的科学保护与管理梳理出系统、可供借鉴的研究方法和技术手段,并对其理论和技术的挑战进行了展望,提出了我国濒危兽类栖息地评估和保护研究应走向整体化、定量化、智能化,以及多学科交叉融合应用的“精准化”发展方向,为国家生态建设工程的有效实施提供重要技术支撑。     

A global assessment of Echinococcus multilocularis infections in domestic dogs: proposing a framework to overcome past methodological heterogeneity

Echinococcus multilocularis, the aetiological agent of human Alveolar Echinococcosis, is transmitted between small mammals and wild or domestic canids. Dogs infected with E. multilocularis as dead-end hosts. Whereas E. multilocularis infections in wild hosts and humans have been well-studied in recent decades, infections in domestic dogs are sparsely reported. This literature review and meta-analysis highlighted gaps in the available data and provided a re-assessment of the global distribution of domestic dog E. multilocularis infections. We found 46 published articles documenting the prevalence of E. multilocularis in domestic dogs from 21 countries across Europe, Asia and North America. Apparent prevalence estimates ranged from 0.00% (0.00–0.33%) in Germany to 55.50% (26.67–81.12%) in China. Most studies were conducted in areas of high human Alveolar Echinococcosis. By accounting for reassessed diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, we estimated true prevalence in a subset of studies, which varied between 0.00% (0.00–12.42%) and 41.09% (21.12–65.81%), as these true prevalence estimates were seldom reported in the articles themselves. Articles also showed a heavy emphasis on rural dogs, dismissing urban ones, which is concerning due to the role urbanisation plays in the transmission of zoonotic diseases, especially those utilising pets as definitive hosts. Lastly, population studies on canine Alveolar Echinococcosis were absent, highlighting the relative focus on human rather than animal health. We thus developed a framework for investigating domestic dog E. multilocularis infections and performing risk assessment of dog-associated transmission to fill the gaps found in the literature.     

Modeling Cumulative Effects of Climate and Development on Moose,Wolf, and Caribou Populations

Wildlife models focused solely on a single strong influence (e.g., habitat components, wildlife harvest) are limited in their ability to detect key mechanisms influencing population change. Instead, we propose integrated modeling in the context of cumulative effects assessment using multispecies population dynamics models linked to landscape-climate simulation at large spatial and temporal scales. We developed an integrated landscape and population simulation model using ALCES Online as the model-building platform, and the model accounted for key ecological components and relationships among moose (Alces alces), grey wolves (Canis lupus nubilus), and woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in northern Ontario, Canada. We simulated multiple scenarios over 5 decades (beginning 2020) to explore sensitivity to climate change and land use and assessed effects at multiple scales. The magnitude of effect and the relative importance of key factors (climate change, roads, and habitat) differed depending on the scale of assessment. Across the full extent of the study area (654,311km² [ecozonal scale]), the caribou population declined by 26% largely because of climate change and associated predator-prey response, which led to caribou range recession in the southern part of the study area. At the caribou range scale (108,378 km²), which focused on 2 herds in the northern part of the study area, climate change led to a 10% decline in the population and development led to an additional 7% decline. At the project scale (8,331 km²), which was focused more narrowly on the landscape surrounding 4 proposed mines, the caribou population declined by 29% largely in response to simulated development. Given that observed caribou population dynamics were sensitive to the cumulative effects of climate change, land use, interspecific interactions, and scale, insights from the analysis might not emerge under a less complex model. Our integrated modeling framework provides valuable support for broader regional assessments, including estimation of risk to caribou and Indigenous food security, and for developing and evaluating potential caribou recovery strategies. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

心肺运动试验（CPET）评价个体化精准运动整体方案强化管控心脑血管慢病疗效的临床研究*

目的: 探讨研究症状限制性极限运动心肺运动试验（CPET）评价个体化精准运动整体方案强化管控3月后（简称强化管控）的长期慢病患者整体功能的改善。方法: 选取2014年至2016年由我们团队强化管控的长期心脑血管代谢慢病为主的患者20例,签署知情同意书后完成CPET,根据CPET及连续功能学检测结果制定以个体化适度运动强度为核心的整体管理方案,强化管控3月后再行CPET,个体化分析每例患者强化管控前后CPET指标的变化、计算差值和百分差值。结果: 本研究心脑血管代谢性慢病为主的患者20例（18男2女）,年龄（55.75±10.80,26~73）岁,身高（172.20±8.63,153~190）cm,体重（76.35±15.63,53~105）kg,所有患者CPET和强化管控期间均无任何危险事件发生。①强化管控后患者静态肺功能指标及静息收缩压、心率收缩压乘积和空腹血糖等均显著改善（P<0.05）。②强化管控前峰值摄氧量为（55.60±15.69,34.37~77.45）%pred和无氧阈为（60.11±12.26,43.29~80.63）%pred;强化管控后峰值耗氧量为（71.85±21.04,42.40~102.00）%pred和无氧阈为（74.95±17.03,51.90~99.47）%pred;管控后较管控前峰值摄氧量和无氧阈显著提高分别达（29.09±7.38,17.78~41.80）%和（25.16±18.38,1.77~81.86）%（P均<0.01）;其他核心指标峰值氧脉搏、峰值负荷功率、摄氧通气效率平台和递增功率运动持续时间均显著升高（P均<0.01）,二氧化碳排出通气效率最低值及二氧化碳排出通气斜率也显著好转（P<0.01）。③个体化分析而言,强化管控后15例上述8项CPET核心指标全部改善,另5例7项指标改善;全部病例峰值摄氧量（%pred）提高>15%以上,16例>20%,13例>25%,10例>30%。结论: CPET能安全客观定量地评估人体整体功能状态和治疗效果、指导制定个体化精准运动强度。个体化精准运动整体方案强化管控三个月能安全有效逆转长期心脑血管代谢等慢病患者的整体功能状态和异常指标。     

陕西长武玉米降水指数保险设计

天气指数保险能有效规避传统农业保险的弊端。本研究基于陕西长武长序列产量数据和气象数据,采用统计分析的方法进行种植面积、产量、单产、趋势产量、相对气象产量以及玉米生育期需供水的分析;采用基于损失的风险评估方法评价种植风险;采用基于Logistic模型的费率厘定方法进行纯费率厘定;根据降水指数和减产率的相关性,设计降水指数;采用投影寻踪的方法设计降水指数赔付方案。结果表明:长武玉米种植面积、产量、单产、趋势产量以及相对气象产量都呈现出增加趋势;生育期平均需水650 mm,降水434mm,亏缺216 mm;从4月下旬到8月下旬,玉米呈现出水分亏缺的状态,7月中旬抽雄期水分亏缺最多,为33.65 mm;9月出现微弱的水分盈余;1994、1995和1997年为减产年,减产率分别为14%、20%和44%,相应降水距平分别为-42.44%、-47.72%和-29.71%;玉米种植轻、中、重和巨灾的发生概率分别是7.49%、3.40%、1.43%和1%;玉米降水指数保险纯费率为2.92%;生育期内旬降水(阈值为40 mm)累积值指定为玉米降水指数,并以降水指数为变量进行分段赔付。本研究剖析了长武玉米种植状况和干旱灾害,并设计了玉米的降水指数保险产品,为长武玉米农业保险提供了新的选择,对解决农业保险目前的困境具有重要的意义。