Biological hierarchies and the nature of extinction

Hierarchy theory recognises that ecological and evolutionary units occur in a nested and interconnected hierarchical system, with cascading effects occurring between hierarchical levels. Different biological disciplines have routinely come into conflict over the primacy of different forcing mechanisms behind evolutionary and ecological change. These disconnects arise partly from differences in perspective (with some researchers favouring ecological forcing mechanisms while others favour developmental/historical mechanisms), as well as differences in the temporal framework in which workers operate. In particular, long‐term palaeontological data often show that large‐scale (macro) patterns of evolution are predominantly dictated by shifts in the abiotic environment, while short‐term (micro) modern biological studies stress the importance of biotic interactions. We propose that thinking about ecological and evolutionary interactions in a hierarchical framework is a fruitful way to resolve these conflicts. Hierarchy theory suggests that changes occurring at lower hierarchical levels can have unexpected, complex effects at higher scales due to emergent interactions between simple systems. In this way, patterns occurring on short‐ and long‐term time scales are equally valid, as changes that are driven from lower levels will manifest in different forms at higher levels. We propose that the dual hierarchy framework fits well with our current understanding of evolutionary and ecological theory. Furthermore, we describe how this framework can be used to understand major extinction events better. Multi‐generational attritional loss of reproductive fitness (MALF) has recently been proposed as the primary mechanism behind extinction events, whereby extinction is explainable solely through processes that result in extirpation of populations through a shutdown of reproduction. While not necessarily explicit, the push to explain extinction through solely population‐level dynamics could be used to suggest that environmentally mediated patterns of extinction or slowed speciation across geological time are largely artefacts of poor preservation or a coarse temporal scale. We demonstrate how MALF fits into a hierarchical framework, showing that MALF can be a primary forcing mechanism at lower scales that still results in differential survivorship patterns at the species and clade level which vary depending upon the initial environmental forcing mechanism. Thus, even if MALF is the primary mechanism of extinction across all mass extinction events, the primary environmental cause of these events will still affect the system and result in differential responses. Therefore, patterns at both temporal scales are relevant.     

Connecting domination contracts

In Black Rights/White Wrongs, Charles Mills continues his critique of contemporary American political philosophy for ignoring issues of racial oppression, and in particular for ignoring the way that liberal social contracts rest on underlying domination contracts. In this commentary, I will discuss some of the new research inspired by Mills’ account of domination contracts, including recent accounts of the “capability contract” and the “species contract”, and explore how they relate to Mills’ own work on the “racial contract”. While this new research on diverse domination contracts confirms the richness of Mills’ analysis of the social contract tradition, it may also require some revisions to his own preferred vision of how we theorize racial justice.     

The Evolution of the Linnaean Hierarchy

The Linnaean system of classification is a threefold system of theoretical assumptions, sorting rules, and rules of nomenclature. Over time, that system has lost its theoretical assumptions as well as its sorting rules. Cladistic revisions have left it less and less Linnaean. And what remains of the system is flawed on pragmatic grounds. Taking all of this into account, it is time to consider alternative systems of classification.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?

Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate envelope models and discusses the implications of these criticisms for the different modelling strategies employed. It is proposed that, although the complexity of the natural system presents fundamental limits to predictive modelling, the bioclimate envelope approach can provide a useful first approximation as to the potentially dramatic impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is stressed that the spatial scale at which these models are applied is of fundamental importance, and that model results should not be interpreted without due consideration of the limitations involved. A hierarchical modelling framework is proposed through which some of these limitations can be addressed within a broader, scale‐dependent context.     

酿酒葡萄品质评价及其对气象条件的响应

根据2004～2005年我国北方6省酿酒葡萄主要产区葡萄取样和宁夏芦花台园艺场田间试验葡萄化验结果，运用层次分析方法（AHP）对酿酒葡萄主要品质因子总糖、糖酸比pH、单宁进行综合评价，运用主成分分析方法和因子分析法研究影响每个地区酿酒葡萄综合品质的主要气象因子和影响时段。结果表明：2004～2005年贺兰山东麓的御马、玉泉营、广夏三基地、贺东在庄园；河西走廊的高台、武威；新疆石河子酿酒葡萄品质优良，渤海湾的烟台、蓬莱、昌藜等地酿酒葡萄品质表现一般。酿酒葡萄综合品质主要受果实着色期、全生育期和7～8月的降水量和水热系数的影响，其中降水量起主导作用。果实着色期气温日较差和全生育期平均相对湿度对酿酒葡萄综合品质的形成也有重要影响，影响相对较小的是果实着色期的最低气温。采样地区的光照、温度等气象条件基本适宜酿酒葡萄品质形成，对优质酿酒葡萄形成没有大的限制作用。     

Hierarchical saturation of soil carbon pools near a natural CO2 spring

Soil has been identified as a possible carbon (C) sink to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration. However, several recent studies have suggested that the potential of soil to sequester C is limited and that soil may become saturated with C under increasing CO₂ levels. To test this concept of soil C saturation, we studied a gley and organic soil at a grassland site near a natural CO₂ spring. Total and aggregate‐associated soil organic C (SOC) concentration showed a significant increase with atmospheric CO₂ concentration. An asymptotic function showed a better fit of SOC and aggregation with CO₂ level than a linear model. There was a shift in allocation of total C from smaller size fractions to the largest aggregate fraction with increasing CO₂ concentration. Litter inputs appeared to be positively related to CO₂ concentration. Based on modeled function parameters and the observed shift in the allocation of the soil C from small to large aggregate‐size classes, we postulate that there is a hierarchy in C saturation across different SOC pools. We conclude that the asymptotic response of SOC concentration at higher CO₂ levels indicates saturation of soil C pools, likely because of a limit to physical protection of SOC.     

基于灾害风险综合指标的陕西省农业干旱时空特征

随着气候变化,农业干旱直接威胁粮食安全.本文以陕西省为研究对象,基于自然灾害风险理论,综合考虑干旱灾害影响因素,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、环境的脆弱性和地区的抗旱能力4个风险要素选取指标,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,构建自然灾害风险综合指标,分析2009—2013年陕西省农业干旱时空特征.结果表明: 研究期间,陕北地区农业干旱风险略呈下降趋势;陕南地区呈急剧升高态势,以商洛市为甚;关中地区基本稳定,以咸阳市最高、西安市最低.陕西省农业干旱风险大体呈现从南向北逐渐递增现象.     

The logical priority of the tree over characters and some of its consequences for taxonomy

The aim of the present paper is to explore the role of the character in phylogenetic systematics. I argue that too much emphasis is put on particular characters rather than congruence both in the choice of phylogenetic hypotheses and in taxonomic decisions. This means that the logical priority of the tree over the characters is neglected. To a large extent, this is a result of not paying enough attention to the individuality thesis which states that clades are historical individuals and hence contingent in nature.     

Lessons From Risk Assessment

Risk assessment and uncertainty analysis are important tools for improving environmental decision making. However, their value is limited when the environmental endpoints assessed by scientists do not coincide with the publicly-meaningful attributes that are of concern to decision makers. Approaches for addressing this disconnect are presented using examples from water quality assessment and management. Recommendations to scientists for maximizing the usefulness of uncertainty analysis are given.