Topological Estimation Biases with Covarion Evolution

Covarion processes allow changes in evolutionary rates at sites along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. Covarion-like evolution is increasingly recognized as an important mode of protein evolution. Several recent reports suggest that maximum likelihood estimation employing covarion models may support different optimal topologies than estimation using standard rates-across-sites (RAS) models. However, it remains to be demonstrated that ignoring covarion evolution will generally result in topological misestimation. In this study we performed analytical and theoretical studies of limiting distances under the covarion model and four-taxon tree simulations to investigate the extent to which the covarion process impacts on phylogenetic estimation. In particular, we assessed the limits of an RAS model-based maximum likelihood method to recover the phylogenies when the sequence data were simulated under the covarion processes. We find that, when ignored, covarion processes can induce systematic errors in phylogeny reconstruction. Surprisingly, when sequences are evolved under a covarion process but an RAS model is used for estimation, we find that a long branch repel bias occurs.     

Statistical cautions when estimating DEBtox parameters

DEBtox (Dynamic Energy Budget in toxicology) models have been designed to analyse various results from classic tests in ecotoxicology. They consist of a set of mechanistic models describing how organisms manage their energy, when they are exposed to a contaminant. Until now, such a biology-based modeling approach has not been used within the regulatory context. However, these methods have been promoted and discussed in recent guidance documents on the statistical analysis of ecotoxicity data. Indeed, they help us to understand the underlying mechanisms. In this paper, we focused on the 21 day Daphnia magna reproduction test. We first aimed to clarify and detail the model building process leading to DEBtox models. Equations were rederived step by step, and for some of them we obtained results different from the published ones. Then, we statistically evaluated the estimation process quality when using a least squares approach. Using both experimental and simulated data, our analyses highlighted several statistical issues related to the fitting of DEBtox models on OECD-type reproduction data. In this case, particular attention had to be paid to parameter estimates and the interpretation of their confidence intervals.     

Testing the quality of nonadult Bayesian dental age assessment methods to juvenile skeletal remains: the Lisbon collection children and secular trend effects

Age estimation of nonadult skeletons from archaeological or forensic contexts has relied heavily on modern schedules of dental formation developed on samples of children of affluent populations. Although genetic factors have been considered to have had the greatest influence on population differences in dental development, increased interest has been placed on the role of environmental influences, such as differences in socioeconomic status and secular trends. This study evaluates the quality (i.e., accuracy and reliability) of two Bayesian dental age estimation methods to a sample of identified child skeletons from the Lisbon collection (20th century Portugal). The two Bayesian methods are developed on a reference sample of modern children from France, Ivory Coast, Iran, and Morocco. The test sample from Lisbon, compared to the reference sample, is separated by over 50 years of secular trends and comprises a lower socioeconomic segment. The two Bayesian methods show that the Lisbon children are consistently 1-year behind in dental age compared to the modern children of the reference sample. Environmental factors largely explain the differences between dental and chronological age in historic samples of nonadults.     

Basics in paleodemography: a comparison of age indicators applied to the early medieval skeletal sample of Lauchheim

Recent advances in the methods of skeletal age estimation have rekindled interest in their applicability to paleodemography. The current study contributes to the discussion by applying several long established as well as recently developed or refined aging methods to a subsample of 121 adult skeletons from the early medieval cemetery of Lauchheim. The skeletal remains were analyzed by 13 independent observers using a variety of aging techniques (complex method and other multimethod approaches, Transition Analysis, cranial suture closure, auricular surface method, osteon density method, tooth root translucency measurement, and tooth cementum annulation counting). The age ranges and mean age estimations were compared and results indicate that all methods showed smaller age ranges for the younger individuals, but broader age ranges for the older age groups.     

Analysis and interpretation of two-dimensional single-particle tracking microscopy measurements: effect of local surface roughness

Methodological advances in light microscopy have made it possible to record the motions of individual lipid and protein molecules resident in the membrane of living cells down to the nanometer level of precision in the x, y plane. Such measurement of a single molecule’s trajectory for a sufficiently long period of time or the measurement of multiple molecules’ trajectories for a shorter period of time can in principle provide the necessary information to derive the particle’s macroscopic two-dimensional-diffusion coefficient—a quantity of vital biological interest. However, one drawback of the light microscopy procedures used in such experiments is their relatively poor discriminatory capability for determining spatial differences along the z axis in comparison to those in the x, y plane. In this study we used computer simulation to examine the likely effect of local surface roughness over the nanometer to micrometer scale on the determination of diffusion constants in the membrane bilayer by the use of such optical-microscope-based single-particle tracking (SPT) procedures. We specifically examined motion of a single molecule along (i) a locally planar and (ii) a locally rough surface. Our results indicate a need for caution in applying overly simplistic analytical strategies to the analysis of data from SPT measurements and provide upper and lower bounds for the likely degree of error introduced on the basis of surface roughness effects alone. Additionally we present an empirical method based on an autocorrelation function approach that may prove useful in identifying the existence of surface roughness and give some idea of its extent.     

An efficient multivariate approach for estimating preference when individual observations are dependent

1. We discuss aspects of resource selection based on observing a given vector of resource variables for different individuals at discrete time steps. A new technique for estimating preference of habitat characteristics, applicable when there are multiple individual observations, is proposed. 2. We first show how to estimate preference on the population and individual level when only a single site- or resource component is observed. A variance component model based on normal scores in used to estimate mean preference for the population as well as the heterogeneity among individuals defined by the intra-class correlation. 3. Next, a general technique is proposed for time series of observations of a vector with several components, correcting for the effect of correlations between these. The preference of each single component is analyzed under the assumption of arbitrarily complex selection of the other components. This approach is based on the theory for conditional distributions in the multi-normal model. 4. The method is demonstrated using a data set of radio-tagged dispersing juvenile goshawks and their site characteristics, and can be used as a general tool in resource or habitat selection analysis.     

基于超高速摄影显微成像和超声散射的纳米包膜造影微泡包膜厚度估计

纳米包膜微泡和携带药物的生物微系统在超声成像和药物传递与释放等方面具有重要的应用价值。通过使用时间分辨率最小可达10ns的新型超高速显微成像装置,得到微泡在医用频率超声场中的半径振动曲线,对参数做灵敏度分析后,与理论预测结果做最小均方误差对比,经反向参数估计,获得包膜厚度估计值。结果表明,该技术在不破坏样品的务件下,能得到较为准确的包膜参数。     

防护措施下一类高传染性多潜伏期传染病的高维动态模型

传染病给人们的生命带来了极大的威胁,对于高传染性的疾病,政府总会采取一些防护措施．本文针对防护措施下的高传染性且具有潜伏期等特性的一类传染病,结合传染病模型,在一定假设条件下给出了这类疾病单日新收治的直接确诊病例及疑似病例的高维动态模型,并使用最小二乘法进行了参数辨识．最后以SARS为例,利用网上公布的SARS数据给出了5月22日-5月31日的预测结果并将预测结果和实际数据进行了比较,说明了模型的有效性．     

多重二元响应Probit模型的渐近有效估计

针对多重二元响应Probit模型提出了两步估计方法,第一步由边际似然得到参数√n相合的估计,第二步通过一步迭代得到渐近有效估计,由于只需一步迭代,因此在利用模拟方法计算信息阵时,可以增加模拟的次数,从而减少模拟所产生的扰动对估计的影响．