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161.
A unified parametric regression model for recapture studies with random removals in continuous time 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Conditional likelihood based on counting processes are combined with a Horvitz-Thompson estimator to yield a population size estimator that is more efficient than the existing ones. Random removals are allowed in the recapturing process. Simulation studies are shown to assess the performance of the proposed estimators. Examples on a bird banding and a small mammal recapturing study are given. 相似文献
162.
163.
In practical ecological sampling studies, a certain design (such as plot sampling or line-intercept sampling) is usually replicated more than once. For each replication, the Horvitz-Thompson estimation of the objective parameter is considered. Finally, an overall estimator is achieved by averaging the single Horvitz-Thompson estimators. Because the design replications are drawn independently and under the same conditions, the overall estimator is simply the sample mean of the Horvitz-Thompson estimators under simple random sampling. This procedure may be wisely improved by using ranked set sampling. Hence, we propose the replicated protocol under ranked set sampling, which gives rise to a more accurate estimation than the replicated protocol under simple random sampling. 相似文献
164.
TCS: a computer program to estimate gene genealogies 总被引:60,自引:1,他引:59
165.
Changes in maximum likelihood parameter estimates due to deletion of individual observations are useful statistics, both for regression diagnostics and for computing robust estimates of covariance. For many likelihoods, including those in the exponential family, these delete-one statistics can be approximated analytically from a one-step Newton-Raphson iteration on the full maximum likelihood solution. But for general conditional likelihoods and the related Cox partial likelihood, the one-step method does not reduce to an analytic solution. For these likelihoods, an alternative analytic approximation that relies on an appropriately augmented design matrix has been proposed. In this paper, we extend the augmentation approach to explicitly deal with discrete failure-time models. In these models, an individual subject may contribute information at several time points, thereby appearing in multiple risk sets before eventually experiencing a failure or being censored. Our extension also allows the covariates to be time dependent. The new augmentation requires no additional computational resources while improving results. 相似文献
166.
We apply a linear mixed-effects model to multivariate failure time data. Computation of the regression parameters involves the Buckley-James method in an iterated Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm, wherein the Monte Carlo E-step is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. From simulation studies, this approach compares favorably with the marginal independence approach, especially when there is a strong within-cluster correlation. 相似文献
167.
In this paper, we present new nonparametric estimators of the stage-occupation probabilities in the three-stage irreversible illness-death model. These estimators use a fractional risk set and a reweighting approach and are valid under stage-dependent censoring. Using a simulated data set, we compare the behavior of our estimators with previously proposed estimators. We also apply our estimators to data on time to Pneumocystis pneumonia and death obtained from an AIDS cohort study. 相似文献
168.
Patterns of intraspecific diversification in the Piriqueta caroliniana complex in southeastern North America and the Bahamas 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Abstract.— We use chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) variation and nested clade phylogeographic analyses to infer the historical processes that have contributed to the high level of morphological and ecological diversification present in a group of herbaceous perennials (the Piriqueta caroliniana complex) in North America and the Bahamas. The presence of morphologically distinct and intercompatible varieties (morphotypes) that can be distinguished based on suites of taxonomic characters (e.g., leaf shape, pubescence type, stature) and contrasting habitat affinities (from marshes to dry pinelands and sand scrub) makes this group particularly appropriate for studies of intraspecific diversification. To examine the distribution of haplotypes among populations, we sampled 467 individuals from 55 locations in Florida, Georgia, and the northern Bahamas (Grand Bahama and Abaco) and screened each individual for cpDNA variation using restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and heteroduplex analyses. We develop a one-step haplotype phylogeny for this group and use the geographic distributions of haplotypes and clades to test specific phylogeographic hypotheses using the methods developed by Templeton and his colleagues (Templeton 1998). In general, the distribution of haplotypes was strongly influenced by limited dispersal distances, with the more recently derived haplotypes having much lower levels of dispersion and lower frequencies in populations than the ancestral haplotypes. The patterns of clade and haplotype dispersion and displacement and the distribution of morphotypes imply at least three cases of long-distance dispersal and one case of historical fragmentation. The historical patterns inferred for populations of Piriqueta are consistent with known biogeographical events, historical vegetation change, and the concordant patterns of multiple Pleistocene refugia that have been observed for a number of other taxa in southeastern North America. 相似文献
169.
coResearchers have long appreciated the significant relationship between body size and an animal's overall adaptive strategy and life history. However, much more emphasis has been placed on interpreting body size than on the actual calculation of it. One measure of size that is especially important for human evolutionary studies is stature. Despite a long history of investigation, stature estimation remains plagued by two methodological problems: (1) the choice of the statistical estimator, and (2) the choice of the reference population from which to derive the parameters.This work addresses both of these problems in estimating stature for fossil hominids, with special reference to A.L. 288-1 (Australopithecus afarensis) and WT 15000 (Homo erectus). Three reference samples of known stature with maximum humerus and femur lengths are used in this study: a large (n=2209) human sample from North America, a smaller sample of modern human pygmies (n=19) from Africa, and a sample of wild-collected African great apes (n=85). Five regression techniques are used to estimate stature in the fossil hominids using both univariate and multivariate parameters derived from the reference samples: classical calibration, inverse calibration, major axis, reduced major axis and the zero-intercept ratio model. We also explore a new diagnostic to test extrapolation and allometric differences with multivariate data, and we calculate 95% confidence intervals to examine the range of variation in estimates for A.L. 288-1, WT 15000 and the new Bouri hominid (contemporary with [corrected] Australopithecus garhi). Results frequently vary depending on whether the data are univariate or multivariate. Unique limb proportions and fragmented remains complicate the choice of estimator. We are usually left in the end with the classical calibrator as the best choice. It is the maximum likelihood estimator that performs best overall, especially in scenarios where extrapolation occurs away from the mean of the reference sample. The new diagnostic appears to be a quick and efficient way to determine at the outset whether extrapolation exists in size and/or shape of the long bones between the reference sample and the target specimen. 相似文献
170.
Dating the origin of the CCR5-Delta32 AIDS-resistance allele by the coalescence of haplotypes. 总被引:14,自引:2,他引:12 下载免费PDF全文
J C Stephens D E Reich D B Goldstein H D Shin M W Smith M Carrington C Winkler G A Huttley R Allikmets L Schriml B Gerrard M Malasky M D Ramos S Morlot M Tzetis C Oddoux F S di Giovine G Nasioulas D Chandler M Aseev M Hanson L Kalaydjieva D Glavac P Gasparini E Kanavakis M Claustres M Kambouris H Ostrer G Duff V Baranov H Sibul A Metspalu D Goldman N Martin D Duffy J Schmidtke X Estivill S J O'Brien M Dean 《American journal of human genetics》1998,62(6):1507-1515
The CCR5-Delta32 deletion obliterates the CCR5 chemokine and the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 coreceptor on lymphoid cells, leading to strong resistance against HIV-1 infection and AIDS. A genotype survey of 4,166 individuals revealed a cline of CCR5-Delta32 allele frequencies of 0%-14% across Eurasia, whereas the variant is absent among native African, American Indian, and East Asian ethnic groups. Haplotype analysis of 192 Caucasian chromosomes revealed strong linkage disequilibrium between CCR5 and two microsatellite loci. By use of coalescence theory to interpret modern haplotype genealogy, we estimate the origin of the CCR5-Delta32-containing ancestral haplotype to be approximately 700 years ago, with an estimated range of 275-1,875 years. The geographic cline of CCR5-Delta32 frequencies and its recent emergence are consistent with a historic strong selective event (e.g. , an epidemic of a pathogen that, like HIV-1, utilizes CCR5), driving its frequency upward in ancestral Caucasian populations. 相似文献