Using Bayesian networks to incorporate uncertainty in habitat suitability index models

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models rarely characterize the uncertainty associated with their estimates of habitat quality despite the fact that uncertainty can have important management implications. The purpose of this paper was to explore the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) for representing and propagating 3 types of uncertainty in HSI models—uncertainty in the suitability index relationships, the parameters of the HSI equation, and measurement of habitat variables (i.e., model inputs). I constructed a BBN–HSI model, based on an existing HSI model, using Netica™ software. I parameterized the BBN's conditional probability tables via Monte Carlo methods, and developed a discretization scheme that met specifications for numerical error. I applied the model to both real and dummy sites in order to demonstrate the utility of the BBN–HSI model for 1) determining whether sites with different habitat types had statistically significant differences in HSI, and 2) making decisions based on rules that reflect different attitudes toward risk—maximum expected value, maximin, and maximax. I also examined effects of uncertainty in the habitat variables on the model's output. Some sites with different habitat types had different values for E[HSI], the expected value of HSI, but habitat suitability was not significantly different based on the overlap of 90% confidence intervals for E[HSI]. The different decision rules resulted in different rankings of sites, and hence, different decisions based on risk. As measurement uncertainty in habitat variables increased, sites with significantly different (α = 0.1) E[HSI] became statistically more similar. Incorporating uncertainty in HSI models enables explicit consideration of risk and more robust habitat management decisions. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

资源型城市土地利用转型及其对生境质量的影响——以乌海市为例

资源型城市前期发展导致了生境丧失或退化,实现高质量转型需要深入理解城市转型与生态环境质量之间的关系,土地利用转型特征及其对生境质量的影响规律研究为此提供依据与支撑。以资源型城市--乌海市为研究区,通过地学信息图谱和InVEST模型探究2005-2018年乌海市土地利用转型特征、生境质量时空变化及土地利用转型对生境质量的影响。结果表明：（1）2005-2018年乌海市土地利用变化趋势发生改变,土地利用转型明显,土地利用变化图谱单元数量逐渐增加78.14%,分布范围逐渐广泛。主要表现为草地与建设用地、采矿用地之间的相互转化,第一阶段（2005-2015年）草地大面积减少,建设用地和采矿用地大面积增加,第二阶段（2015-2018年）趋势相反。（2）乌海市生境质量变化呈现先强退化后弱提升趋势。2005-2015年乌海市18.75%的区域生境质量退化,提升面积较小;2015-2018年生境质量提升面积略大于退化面积。（3）2005-2015年草地向采矿用地、建设用地转化是区域生境质量降低的主要原因,2015-2018年区域生境质量提升的主导因素是采矿用地和建设用地向草地转化。研究结果揭示了资源型城市土地利用转型过程中生境质量的响应规律,可为资源型城市土地利用转型决策提供参考。     

Grazing effects on plant diversity in the endemic Erica mackayana heathland community of north-west Spain

Background: Large areas of heathland landscapes in Galicia, north-west Spain, have traditionally been extensively grazed by free-ranging cattle and wild ponies. Recently, a large reduction in the number of these larger herbivores has been observed, with unknown consequences for the habitat.

Aims: To evaluate the effects of grazing and herbivore density on plant diversity, community composition and vegetation structure of the endemic wet heathlands dominated by Erica mackayana in Galicia.

Methods: Field sampling of vascular plants, generalised linear models (GLMs), non-metric multidimensional distance scaling (NMDS).

Results: Grazed sites had significantly higher total and rare species richness and diversity than ungrazed sites. Higher densities of cattle resulted in lower numbers of rare species, while wild pony density had no effect on rare species richness. In grazed sites, vegetation was lower with greater variation in height, resulting in greater heterogeneity of the habitat. Precipitation and summer temperatures were related to plant diversity, mainly beta diversity. Soil organic matter negatively correlated with rare species.

Discussion: Grazing, mostly by wild ponies, was demonstrated to be positively related to plant diversity and vegetation structure. Lack of grazing or high cattle densities resulted in a negative effect on total and rare species richness and diversity. Future climate change may negatively affect heathland plant diversity. Galician wild ponies represent a unique case of sustainable management of a wild species and an invaluable cultural heritage. Moreover, they have a significant role in maintaining the endemic E. mackayana heathlands, what would justify specific conservation actions for these large herbivores.     

Landscape distribution of food and nesting sites affect larval diet and nest size,but not abundance of Osmia bicornis

Habitat fragmentation is a major threat for beneficial organisms and the ecosystem services they provide. Multiple‐habitat users such as wild bees depend on both nesting and foraging habitat. Thus, they may be affected by the fragmentation of at least two habitat types. We investigated the effects of landscape‐scale amount of and patch isolation from both nesting habitat (woody plants) and foraging habitat (specific pollen sources) on the abundance and diet of Osmia bicornis L. Trap‐nests of O. bicornis were studied in 30 agricultural landscapes of the Swiss Plateau. Nesting and foraging habitats were mapped in a radius of 500 m around the sites. Pollen composition of larval diet changed as isolation to the main pollen source, Ranunculus, increased, suggesting that O. bicornis adapted its foraging strategy in function of the nest proximity to main pollen sources. Abundance of O. bicornis was neither related to isolation or amount of nesting habitat nor to isolation or abundance of food plants. Surprisingly, nests of O. bicornis contained fewer larvae in sites at forest edge compared to isolated sites, possibly due to higher parasitism risk. This study indicates that O. bicornis can nest in a variety of situations by compensating scarcity of its main larval food by exploiting alternative food sources.     

Evidence for longitudinal migration by a “sedentary” Brazilian flycatcher,the Ash‐throated Casiornis

The digitalization of museum collections and concurrent increase in citizen‐science initiatives is ushering in an era of unprecedented availability of primary biodiversity data. These changes permit a reappraisal of phenological patterns of tropical species. I examined spatio‐temporal variation in the distribution patterns of an ostensibly sedentary endemic Brazilian flycatcher, the Ash‐throated Casiornis (Casiornis fuscus), using both specimen data from museums and sighting records and rich media data from citizen‐science initiatives. I found compelling evidence for partial intratropical longitudinal migration to Amazonia and the Cerrado biomes from the species’ core range in the semi‐desert Caatinga biome and adjacent ecotones. These records from outside of the Caatinga were distributed during the height of the dry season from April to October, although the Caatinga is not entirely vacated at this time. This pattern of partial migration leads to a doubling of the distributional range of Ash‐throated Casiornises and strongly suggests that the species is a breeding near‐endemic of the Caatinga biome. This pattern was potentially previously not apparent because of significant biases in specimen collection between biomes, giving a false sense of abundance in the Brazilian Amazon.     

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal wetlands worldwide, yet the fate of individual wetlands will vary based on local topography, wetland morphology, sediment dynamics, hydrologic processes, and plant‐mediated feedbacks. Local variability in these factors makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across wetlands or to develop a holistic regional perspective on SLR response for a diversity of wetland types. To improve regional predictions of SLR impacts to coastal wetlands, we developed a model that addresses the scale‐dependent factors controlling SLR response and accommodates different levels of data availability. The model quantifies SLR‐driven habitat conversion within wetlands across a region by predicting changes in individual wetland hypsometry. This standardized approach can be applied to all wetlands in a region regardless of data availability, making it ideal for modeling SLR response across a range of scales. Our model was applied to 105 wetlands in southern California that spanned a broad range of typology and data availability. Our findings suggest that if wetlands are confined to their current extents, the region will lose 12% of marsh habitats (vegetated marsh and unvegetated flats) with 0.6 m of SLR (projected for 2050) and 48% with 1.7 m of SLR (projected for 2100). Habitat conversion was more drastic in wetlands with larger proportions of marsh habitats relative to subtidal habitats and occurred more rapidly in small lagoons relative to larger sites. Our assessment can inform management of coastal wetland vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to individual wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. This approach augments regional SLR assessments by considering spatial variability in SLR response drivers, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity, which will provide greater insights into regional SLR response that are relevant to coastal management and restoration efforts.     

Short‐term harvesting of biomass from conservation grasslands maintains plant diversity

High yields are a priority in managing biomass for renewable energy, but the environmental impacts of various feedstocks and production systems should be equally considered. Mixed‐species, perennial grasslands enrolled in conservation programs are being considered as a source of biomass for renewable energy. Conservation grasslands are crucial in sustaining native biodiversity throughout the US Upper Midwest, and the effects of biomass harvest on biodiversity are largely unknown. We measured the effect of late‐season biomass harvest on plant community composition in conservation grasslands in three regions of Minnesota, USA from 2009 to 2012. Temporal trends in plant species composition within harvested grasslands were compared to unharvested grasslands using mixed effects models. A before‐after control‐impact approach using effect sizes was applied to focus on pre‐ and postharvest conditions. Production‐scale biomass harvest did not affect plant species richness, species or functional group diversity, nor change the relative abundance of the main plant functional groups. Differences in the relative abundances of plant functional groups were observed across locations; and at some locations, changed through time. The proportion of non‐native species remained constant, while the proportion of noxious weeds decreased through time in both harvested and unharvested grasslands at the central location. Ordination revealed patterns in species composition due to location, but not due to harvest treatment. Therefore, habitat and bioenergy characteristics related to grassland plant communities are not expected to change due to short‐term or intermittent late‐season biomass harvest.     

Pulling the threads together: habitat diversity

The dependence of fungi on host and habitat is emphasized and the reticulate pattern of the interactions explored. Habitat diversity, often defined by the vascular plant element, vertebrate and invertebrate associations, and non-phanerogamic mutualisms are considered. The role of man especially in changes in habitat availability is stressed. Infraspecific variability is mentioned. The diversity of habitats is as much a part of the Rio Convention as molecular, cellular and organismal variation.     

Landscape and weather determinants of prey availability: implications for the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni

Spatial and temporal variation in prey abundance have been shown to impact the time of breeding and breeding success of birds. Understanding the ecological requirements of preferred prey can help develop management measures to improve food supply for target species. For the colonial Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni, mole crickets Gryllotalpa spp. are one of the most important prey items during the mate‐feeding period. Lesser Kestrel colonies with higher mole cricket consumption had earlier egg‐laying dates, suggesting that differences between individuals in the time of breeding could be caused by differences in the diet. Moreover, the mean number of mole crickets in pellets was significantly correlated with clutch size (in one of the studied years) and egg volume. Thus, the impact of environmental variables and land use on mole crickets is likely to be relevant to Lesser Kestrel conservation. Weekly consumption of mole crickets was higher following an increase in either precipitation or minimum temperature values. Furthermore, mole cricket consumption was higher in colonies surrounded by higher quality soils and in wetter areas and years. Predicted probability of mole cricket occurrence in surveyed watercourse margins suggested a positive relationship between soil penetrability and mole cricket occurrence. Among variables that might be the target of management, the presence of riparian vegetation positively influenced the occurrence of mole crickets, whilst tillage and sowing of streambeds were revealed as the most important threats. We suggest that the maintenance of native vegetation in the margins of watercourses could improve soil resilience to erosion, increase water retention, soil penetrability and fertility, and provide a food supply and shelter for mole crickets. Overall, the implementation of such recommendations is likely to benefit other farmland species known to consume mole crickets, including several endangered species.     

Changes of a forest bird community in Hong Kong of China in 10 years

The changes in the bird community structure of the largest natural secondary forest of Hong Kong over 10 years were investigated. Densities of the 10 most abundant species in 1993–1995 and 2003–2005 were compared using t-test. All resident habitat generalists showed significant decline in densities. Two forest specialists showed significant increase in densities: one is native and the other is exotic species. The trend of changes in the forest bird community of Hong Kong is mainly related to the absence of nearby forests that could act as “source” of forest dependent species to colonize the local secondary forests, and the invasion of exotic species.