A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

The reactivity of neonatal rabbits to the mammary pheromone as a probe for viability

Newborn rabbits depend on a daily nursing interaction with the mother to gain milk and to survive. During this interaction, they localise and seize the nipples displaying a typical behaviour triggered by maternal odour cues. The mammary pheromone constitutes such a signal in domestic rabbits: it elicits sucking-related movements in more than 90% of the pups. However, some newborns remain unresponsive to the presentation of the pheromone, even pups apparently healthy and highly motivated to suck. The main goal of the present study was therefore to explore the link between the unresponsiveness of rabbit pups to the mammary pheromone and their growth and survival in breeding conditions. To that end, 293 newborns from 30 litters were tested for their head searching-oral grasping responses to the mammary pheromone on days 1 and 3, and their milk intake and mortality were followed up from days 1 to 21. It was hypothesised that unresponsive newborns would have subsequent difficulties in finding nipples, sucking and surviving. Early weight and success in milk intake were further considered as mediating factors in growth and viability. The results showed that pups that were unresponsive to the mammary pheromone on day 1 were less successful in gaining milk and had a higher rate of mortality than the responsive pups. However, this impact was modulated by the weight of pups: it appeared only in the lightest newborns. Moreover, this impact vanished on day 3. On the other hand, the pup weight and sucking success on days 1 to 3 strongly influenced viability and growth during the period extending from days 1 to 21. Taken together, the results show that the day-1 responsiveness of rabbit pups to the mammary pheromone can be considered as an indicator of individual viability in pups having a small weight (<48 g on day 1). The predictive validity of the pups’ pheromonal reactivity seems however time-limited as it works only during the first, but crucial, postnatal days.     

Sugar‐feeding status alters biting midge photoattraction

The biting midge Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) transmits pathogens to both livestock and wildlife. Biting midge surveillance relies heavily on light traps for collection; however, little is known about the light spectra preferences of C. sonorensis midges. A light assay arena was constructed and light‐emitting diodes (LEDs) of various light spectra were used as light sources to evaluate midge photoattraction. A comparison of responses to light spectra indicated the highest proportions of C. sonorensis were attracted to ultraviolet (UV) light and that midges differentiated 10‐nm differences in wavelength. Stronger intensities of UV light resulted in greater attraction. Midges exhibited both sugar‐seeking and escape behaviours under different conditions of sugar supplementation before and during the experiment. These behaviours occurred with lights of 355 nm and 365 nm in wavelength. Based on the results of this study, the attraction of C. sonorensis to light traps can be improved through the use of bright LEDs at 355 nm or 365 nm.     

Effects of global environmental change on carbon partitioning in vegetative plants of Triticum aestivum and closely related Aegilops species

The use of fossil fuel is predicted to cause an increase of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, which will affect the global pattern of temperature and precipitation. It is therefore essential to incorporate effects of temperature and water supply on carbon partitioning of plants to predict effects of elevated [CO₂] on growth and yield of Triticum aestivum. Although earlier papers have emphasized that elevated [CO₂] favours investment of biomass in roots relative to that in leaves, it has now become clear that these are indirect effects, due to the more rapid depletion of nutrients in the root environment as a consequence of enhanced growth. Broadly generalized, the effect of temperature on biomass allocation in the vegetative stage is that the relative investment of biomass in roots is lowest at a certain optimum temperature and increases at both higher and lower temperatures. This is found not only when the temperature of the entire plant is varied, but also when only root temperature is changed whilst shoot temperature is kept constant. Effects of temperature on the allocation pattern can be explained largely by the effect of root temperature on the roots' capacity to transport water. Effects of a shortage in water supply on carbon partitioning are unambiguous: roots receive relatively more carbon. The pattern of biomass allocation in the vegetative stage and variation in water-use efficiency are prime factors determining a plant's potential for early growth and yield in different environments. In a comparison of a range of T. aestivum cultivars, a high water-use efficiency at the plant level correlates positively with a large investment in both leaf and root biomass, a low stomatal conductance and a large investment in photosynthetic capacity. We also present evidence that a lower investment of biomass in roots is not only associated with lower respiratory costs for root growth, but also with lower specific costs for ion uptake. We suggest the combination of a number of traits in future wheat cultivars, i.e. a high investment of biomass in leaves, which have a low stomatal conductance and a high photosynthetic capacity, and a low investment of biomass in roots, which have low respiratory costs. Such cultivars are considered highly appropriate in a future world, especially in the dryer regions. Although variation for the desired traits already exists among wheat cultivars, it is much larger among wild Aegilops species, which can readily be crossed with T. aestivum. Such wild relatives may be exploited to develop new wheat cultivars well-adapted to changed climatic conditions.     

Oxygen: a master regulator of pancreatic development?

Beyond its role as an electron acceptor in aerobic respiration, oxygen is also a key effector of many developmental events. The oxygen‐sensing machinery and the very fabric of cell identity and function have been shown to be deeply intertwined. Here we take a first look at how oxygen might lie at the crossroads of at least two of the major molecular pathways that shape pancreatic development. Based on recent evidence and a thorough review of the literature, we present a theoretical model whereby evolving oxygen tensions might choreograph to a large extent the sequence of molecular events resulting in the development of the organ. In particular, we propose that lower oxygenation prior to the expansion of the vasculature may favour HIF (hypoxia inducible factor)‐mediated activation of Notch and repression of Wnt/β‐catenin signalling, limiting endocrine cell differentiation. With the development of vasculature and improved oxygen delivery to the developing organ, HIF‐mediated support for Notch signalling may decline while the β‐catenin‐directed Wnt signalling is favoured, which would support endocrine cell differentiation and perhaps exocrine cell proliferation/differentiation.     

Marine incursions,cryptic species and ecological diversification in Amazonia: the biogeographic history of the croaker genus Plagioscion (Sciaenidae)

Aim We propose a phylogenetic hypothesis for the marine‐derived sciaenid genus Plagioscion in the context of geomorphology and adaptation to freshwaters of South America, and assess the extent to which contemporary freshwater hydrochemical gradients influence diversification within a widely distributed Plagioscion species, Plagioscion squamosissimus. Location Amazon Basin and South America. Methods Using nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequence data, phylogenetic analyses were conducted on the five nominal Plagioscion species, together with representatives from Pachyurus and Pachypops, using character and model‐based methods. Genealogical relationships and population genetic structure of 152 P. squamosissimus specimens sampled from the five major rivers and three hydrochemical settings/‘colours’ (i.e. white, black and clear water) of the Amazon Basin were assessed. Results Phylogenetic analyses support the monophyly of Plagioscion in South America and identify two putative cryptic species of Plagioscion. Divergence estimates suggest that the Plagioscion ancestor invaded South America via a northern route during the late Oligocene to early Miocene. Within P. squamosissimus a strong association of haplotype and water colour was observed, together with significant population structure detected between water colours. Main conclusions Our analyses of Plagioscion are consistent with a biogeographic scenario of early Miocene marine incursions into South America. Based on our phylogenetic results, the fossil record, geomorphological history and distributional data of extant Plagioscion species, we propose that marine incursions into western Venezuela between the late Oligocene and early Miocene were responsible for the adaptation to freshwaters in Plagioscion species. Following the termination of the marine incursions during the late Miocene and the establishment of the modern Amazon River, Plagioscion experienced a rapid diversification. Plagioscion squamosissimus arose during that time. The formation of the Amazon River probably facilitated population and range expansions for this species. Further, the large‐scale hydrochemical gradients within the Amazon Basin appear to be acting as ecological barriers maintaining population discontinuities in P. squamosissimus even in the face of gene flow. Our results highlight the importance of divergent natural selection through time in the generation and maintenance of sciaenid diversity in Amazonia.     

The application of strand invasion phenomenon,directed by peptide nucleic acid (PNA) and single‐stranded DNA binding protein (SSB) for the recognition of specific sequences of human endogenous retroviral HERV‐W family

The HERV‐W family of human endogenous retroviruses represents a group of numerous sequences that show close similarity in genetic composition. It has been documented that some members of HERV‐W–derived expression products are supposed to play significant role in humans' pathology, such as multiple sclerosis or schizophrenia. Other members of the family are necessary to orchestrate physiological processes (eg, ERVWE1 coding syncytin‐1 that is engaged in syncytiotrophoblast formation). Therefore, an assay that would allow the recognition of particular form of HERV‐W members is highly desirable. A peptide nucleic acid (PNA)–mediated technique for the discrimination between multiple sclerosis‐associated retrovirus and ERVWE1 sequence has been developed. The assay uses a PNA probe that, being fully complementary to the ERVWE1 but not to multiple sclerosis‐associated retrovirus (MSRV) template, shows high selective potential. Single‐stranded DNA binding protein facilitates the PNA‐mediated, sequence‐specific formation of strand invasion complex and, consequently, local DNA unwinding. The target DNA may be then excluded from further analysis in any downstream process such as single‐stranded DNA‐specific exonuclease action. Finally, the reaction conditions have been optimized, and several PNA probes that are targeted toward distinct loci along whole HERV‐W env sequences have been evaluated. We believe that PNA/single‐stranded DNA binding protein–based application has the potential to selectively discriminate particular HERV‐W molecules as they are at least suspected to play pathogenic role in a broad range of medical conditions, from psycho‐neurologic disorders (multiple sclerosis and schizophrenia) and cancers (breast cancer) to that of an auto‐immunologic background (psoriasis and lupus erythematosus).