Comparing vector–host and SIR models for dengue transmission

Various simple mathematical models have been used to investigate dengue transmission. Some of these models explicitly model the mosquito population, while others model the mosquitoes implicitly in the transmission term. We study the impact of modeling assumptions on the dynamics of dengue in Thailand by fitting dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) data to simple vector–host and SIR models using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The parameter estimates obtained for both models were consistent with previous studies. Most importantly, model selection found that the SIR model was substantially better than the vector–host model for the DHF data from Thailand. Therefore, explicitly incorporating the mosquito population may not be necessary in modeling dengue transmission for some populations.     

Geometric morphometrics as a tool for interpreting evolutionary transitions in the black fly wing (Diptera: Simuliidae)

A geometric morphometric analysis was conducted on wing‐vein landmarks on exemplar species of the family Simuliidae of the following genera: Parasimulium, Gymnopais, Twinnia, Helodon, Prosimulium, Greniera, Stegopterna, Tlalocomyia, Cnephia, Ectemnia, Metacnephia, Austrosimulium, and Simulium. Generalized least squares superimposition was performed on landmarks, followed by a principal component analysis on resulting Procrustes distances. Patterns of shape change along the principal component axes were visualized using the thin‐plate spline. The analysis revealed wing shape diversity through (1) the insertion points of the subcosta and R₁, resulting in the terminus of the costa exhibiting a trend towards a more apical position on the wing, and (2) the insertion point of the humeral cross vein, resulting in the anterior branch of the media exhibiting a trend toward a more basal position on the wing. Canonical variates analysis of Procrustes distances successfully assigned all exemplar species into their a priori taxonomic groupings. The diversity in wing shape reveals a trend towards decreased length of basal radial cell and increased costalization of anterior wing veins in the evolutionary transition from plesiomorphic prosimuliines to more derived simuliines. The functional significance of these evolutionary transitions is discussed. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London     

Roles of transient receptor potential canonical (TRPC) channels and reverse-mode Na/Ca exchanger on cell proliferation in human cardiac fibroblasts: Effects of transforming growth factor β1

Expression of transient receptor potential canonical channels (TRPC) and the effects of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) on Ca²⁺ signals and fibroblast proliferation were investigated in human cardiac fibroblasts. The conventional and quantitative real-time RT-PCR, western blot, immunocytochemical analysis, and intracellular Ca²⁺ concentration [Ca²⁺]_i measurement were applied. Cell proliferation and cell cycle progression were assessed using MTT assays and fluorescence activated cell sorting. Human cardiac fibroblasts have the expression of TRPC1,3,4,6 mRNA and proteins. 1-oleoyl-2-acetyl-sn-glycerol (OAG) and thapsigargin induced extracellular Ca²⁺-mediated [Ca²⁺]_i rise. siRNA for knock down of TRPC6 reduced OAG-induced Ca²⁺ entry. Hyperforin as well as angiotensin II (Ang II) induced Ca²⁺ entry. KB-R7943, a reverse-mode Na⁺/Ca²⁺ exchanger (NCX) inhibitor, and/or replacement of Na⁺ with NMDG⁺ inhibited thapsigargin-, OAG- and Ang II-induced Ca²⁺ entry. Treatment with TGF-β1 increased thapsigargin-, OAG- and Ang II-induced Ca²⁺ entry with an enhancement of TRPC1,6 protein expression, suppressed by KB-R7943. TGF-β1 and AngII promoted cell cycle progression from G0/G1 to S/G2/M and cell proliferation. A decrease of the extracellular Ca²⁺ and KB-R7943 suppressed it. Human cardiac fibroblasts contain several TRPC-mediated Ca²⁺ influx pathways, which activate the reverse-mode NCX. TGF-β1 enhances the Ca²⁺ influx pathways requiring Ca²⁺ signals for its effect on fibroblast proliferation.     

Microhabitat Variation Explains Local‐scale Distribution of Terrestrial Amazonian Lizards in Rondônia,Western Brazil

We investigate the role of ecology and phylogeny in the association between lizard abundance and microhabitat variables in an Amazon rain forest site. Using pitfall trap arrays, we collected data from 349 individuals belonging to 23 lizard species. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), we found that lizard captures were significantly associated with microhabitat variables, which accounted for 48 percent of the observed variation. Furthermore, a canonical phylogenetic ordination (CPO) indicated that microhabitat variables are more important in determining the distribution of lizard species than phylogenetic relationships among species. Termite nests, canopy openness, and tree circumference were strongly associated with the number of captures of certain lizard species. Our results confirm autecology studies of individual lizard species for which data are available. We suggest that maintaining heterogeneous forested microhabitats should be a central goal for sustaining a high lizard biodiversity in Amazon rain forests.     

Biofilm model calibration and microbial diversity study using Monte Carlo simulations

Mathematical models are useful tools for studying and exploring biological conversion processes as well as microbial competition in biological treatment processes. A single‐species biofilm model was used to describe biofilm reactor operation at three different hydraulic retention times (HRT). The single‐species biofilm model was calibrated with sparse experimental data using the Monte Carlo filtering method. This calibrated single‐species biofilm model was then extended to a multi‐species model considering 10 different heterotrophic bacteria. The aim was to study microbial diversity in bulk phase biomass and biofilm, as well as the competition between suspended and attached biomass. At steady state and independently of the HRT, Monte Carlo simulations resulted only in one unique dominating bacterial species for suspended and attached biomass. The dominating bacterial species was determined by the highest specific substrate affinity (ratio of µ/K_S). At a short HRT of 20 min, the structure of the microbial community in the bulk liquid was determined by biomass detached from the biofilm. At a long HRT of 8 h, both biofilm detachment and microbial growth in the bulk liquid influenced the microbial community distribution. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2013; 110: 1323–1332. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Relating Phylogenetic Trees to Transmission Trees of Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.     

Membrane adsorption,folding, insertion and translocation of synthetic trans-membrane peptides

Spontaneous membrane adsorption, folding and insertion of the synthetic WALP16 and KALP16 peptides was studied by computer simulations starting from completely extended conformations. The peptides were simulated using an unmodified all-atom force field in combination with an efficient Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. The membrane is represented implicitly as a hydrophobic zone inside a continuum solvent modelled using the generalized Born theory of solvation. The method was previously parameterized to match insertion energies of hydrophobic side chain analogs into cyclohexane and no parameters were optimized for the present simulations. Both peptides rapidly precipitate out of bulk solution and adsorb to the membrane surface. Interfacial folding into a helical conformation is followed by membrane insertion. Both the peptide conformations and their location in the membrane are strongly temperature dependent. The temperature dependent behaviour can be summarized by fitting to a four-state model, separating the system into folded and unfolded conformers, which are either inserted into the membrane or located at the interfaces. As the temperature is lowered the dominant peptide conformation of the system changes from unfolded surface bound configurations to folded surface bound states. Folded trans-membrane conformers represent the dominant configuration at low temperatures. The analysis allows direct estimates of the free energies of peptide folding and membrane insertion. In the case of WALP the quality of the fit is excellent and the thermodynamic behaviour is in good agreement with expected theoretical consideration. For KALP the fit is more problematic due to the large solvation energies of the charged lysine residues.     

秦岭南坡油松-锐齿槲栎混交林群落不同层次多样性特征及环境解释

在秦岭山脉南坡陕西省境内设置11个样地进行实地调查,从植物物种组成、多样性指数差异以及多样性指数沿环境梯度排序等方面对该区域油松-锐齿槲栎天然混交林的群落总体以及乔木层、灌木层、草本层的各自4个α多样性指数（Patrick丰富度指数、Simpson优势度指数、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数、Pielou均匀度指数）特征进行分析,以揭示该群落多样性特征及其与环境因素的关系。结果显示：（1）11个样地共记录维管束植物112种,隶属于45科77属,分布较广的物种有蔷薇科、菊科、百合科、松科、禾本科和忍冬科。（2）研究区群落中建群种锐齿槲栎和油松的优势地位突出,乔木层伴生种稀少,平均仅为4.8种,多样性水平较低;灌木层物种组成丰富,平均11.4种;草本层次之,平均9种。（3）单因素方差分析表明,该群落不同层次的多样性指数之间均存在极显著差异（P<0.01）;LSD多重比较及多样性指数变化趋势分析表明,群落多样性水平表现为总体>灌木层>草本层>乔木层。（4）CCA法将群落不同层次多样性指数沿地形因子和土壤养分等12项环境指标梯度的分布划分为界线明显的3个区域,即Ⅰ区（中等浓度土壤磷素和有机质制约区）、Ⅱ区（非环境因子制约区）和Ⅲ区（高浓度土壤磷素制约区）;群落总体多样性主要受灌木层影响,同时也受乔木层均匀度影响,但环境因子对乔木层多样性基本无限制性作用。（5）土壤速效磷、全磷和有机质是造成研究区群落不同层次多样性差异的主要因素,海拔、坡向等地形因子对群落多样性影响不大,可能是由于土壤养分的直接影响削弱了地形因子的间接性生态作用。研究表明：保持中等水平的土壤速效磷（3.775±1.529 mg·kg^-1）和有机质含量［（4.079±1.001）%］,并通过合理补植松栎幼树和伐除枯死木等抚育手段提高乔木层均匀度是维持秦岭南坡油松-锐齿槲栎混交林群落生物多样性的有效措施。     

Brain structure and spatial sensitivity profile assessing by near‐infrared spectroscopy modeling based on 3D MRI data

The goal of this study is to prove that the light propagation in the head by used the 3‐D optical model from in vivo MRI data set can also provide significant characteristics on the spatial sensitivity of cerebral cortex folding geometry based on Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, we proposed a MRI based approach for 3‐D brain modeling of near‐infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). In the results, the spatial sensitivity profile of the cerebral cortex folding geometry and the arrangement of source‐detector separation have being necessarily considered for applications of functional NIRS. The optimal choice of source‐detector separation is suggested within 3–3.5 cm by the received intensity with different source‐detector separations and the ratio of received light from the gray and white matter layer is greater than 50%. Additionally, this study has demonstrated the capability of NIRS in not only assessing the functional but also detecting the structural change of the brain by taking advantage of the low scattering and absorption coefficients observed in CSF of sagittal view. (© 2013 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

Perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6‐year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn (Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk into three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit‐oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops have a higher potential to successfully compete with corn under marginal crop production conditions.