The continual reassessment method for multiple toxicity grades: a Bayesian quasi-likelihood approach

We consider the case of phase I trials for treatment of cancer or other severe diseases in which grade information is available about the severity of toxicity. Most dose allocation procedures dichotomize toxicity grades based on being dose limiting, which may not work well for severe and possibly irreversible toxicities such as renal, liver, and neurological toxicities, or toxicities with long duration. We propose a simple extension to the continual reassessment method (CRM), called the Quasi-CRM, to incorporate grade information. Toxicity grades are first converted to numeric scores that reflect their impacts on the dose allocation procedure, and then incorporated into the CRM using the quasi-Bernoulli likelihood. A simulation study demonstrates that the Quasi-CRM is superior to the standard CRM and comparable to a univariate version of the Bekele and Thall method (2004, Journal of the American Statistical Association 99, 26-35). We also present sensitivity analysis of the new method with respect to toxicity scores, and discuss practical issues such as extending the simple algorithmic up-and-down designs.     

安徽省外来入侵植物的分布格局及其等级划分

区域性外来入侵植物的研究及其入侵等级划分在地方入侵植物管理与防治对策的制定上具有重要的指导意义。本文基于文献报道、标本记录和必要的分类学考证,特别是通过2013-2015年对安徽省外来入侵植物的全面调查,统计分析了安徽省外来入侵植物的物种组成、生活型、原产地、区系组成和水平分布格局,并对其入侵危害进行等级划分。结果显示,安徽省有外来入侵植物37科86属132种,总体上呈现种类丰富、原产于美洲的种类多、泛热带起源的种类多、危害严重的种类多、区域分化明显、入侵途径集中等特征。提出在外来入侵植物的防控中应重点警惕起源于美洲的、泛热带分布属的植物和关注人类活动频繁的热点区域。还对中国外来入侵植物研究中存在的问题进行了探讨,澄清了几个长期以来被忽视的关于外来入侵物种认知的问题。     

The effect of pulping concentration treatment on the properties of microcrystalline cellulose powder obtained from waste paper

Microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) powder was isolated from three grades of waste paper: book, Groundwood/Newsprint and paperboard, through the processes of pulping and hydrolysis. Pulping treatment on these grades of waste paper was done using varying concentrations of caustic soda. Effects of the concentration of the pulping medium on the thermal and kinetic properties were investigated. Also determined were the effects of this on the physico-chemical properties. The chemical structure was characterized using an infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Results showed these properties to be affected by the concentration of the pulping medium.     

Social complexity and the fractal structure of group size in primate social evolution

Compared to most other mammals and birds, anthropoid primates have unusually complex societies characterised by bonded social groups. Among primates, this effect is encapsulated in the social brain hypothesis: the robust correlation between various indices of social complexity (social group size, grooming clique size, tactical behaviour, coalition formation) and brain size. Hitherto, this has always been interpreted as a simple, unitary relationship. Using data for five different indices of brain volume from four independent brain databases, we show that the distribution of group size plotted against brain size is best described as a set of four distinct, very narrowly defined grades which are unrelated to phylogeny. The allocation of genera to these grades is highly consistent across the different data sets and brain indices. We show that these grades correspond to the progressive evolution of bonded social groups. In addition, we show, for those species that live in multilevel social systems, that the typical sizes of the different grouping levels in each case coincide with different grades. This suggests that the grades correspond to demographic attractors that are especially stable. Using five different cognitive indices, we show that the grades correlate with increasing social cognitive skills, suggesting that the cognitive demands of managing group cohesion increase progressively across grades. We argue that the grades themselves represent glass ceilings on animals' capacity to maintain social and spatial coherence during foraging and that, in order to evolve more highly bonded groups, species have to be able to invest in costly forms of cognition.