Predicting the success of an invader: Niche shift versus niche conservatism

Invasive species can encounter environments different from their source populations, which may trigger rapid adaptive changes after introduction (niche shift hypothesis). To test this hypothesis, we investigated whether postintroduction evolution is correlated with contrasting environmental conditions between the European invasive and source ranges in the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus. The comparison of environmental niches occupied in European and source population ranges revealed more than 96% overlap between invasive and source niches, supporting niche conservatism. However, we found evidence for postintroduction genetic evolution by reanalyzing a published ddRADseq genomic dataset from 90 European invasive populations using genotype–environment association (GEA) methods and generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM). Three loci, among which a putative heat‐shock protein, exhibited significant allelic turnover along the gradient of winter precipitation that could be associated with ongoing range expansion. Wing morphometric traits weakly correlated with environmental gradients within Europe, but wing size differed between invasive and source populations located in different climatic areas. Niche similarities between source and invasive ranges might have facilitated the establishment of populations. Nonetheless, we found evidence for environmental‐induced adaptive changes after introduction. The ability to rapidly evolve observed in invasive populations (genetic shift) together with a large proportion of unfilled potential suitable areas (80%) pave the way to further spread of Ae. albopictus in Europe.     

Absolute fitness, relative fitness, and utility

It is well known that (1) natural selection typically favors an allele with both a large mean fitness and a small variance in fitness; and (2) investors typically prefer a portfolio with both a large mean return and a small variance in returns. In the case of investors, this mean-variance trade-off reflects risk aversion; in the case of evolution, the mathematics is straightforward but the result is harder to intuit. In particular, it is harder to understand where, in the mathematics of natural selection, risk aversion arises. Here I present a result that suggests a simple answer to this question. Although my answer is essentially identical to one offered previously, my path to it differs somewhat from previous approaches. Some may find this new approach easier to intuit.     

Ecological speciation in Gambusia fishes

Although theory indicates that natural selection can facilitate speciation as a by-product, demonstrating ongoing speciation via this by-product mechanism in nature has proven difficult. We examined morphological, molecular, and behavioral data to investigate ecology's role in incipient speciation for a post-Pleistocene radiation of Bahamas mosquitofish (Gambusia hubbsi) inhabiting blue holes. We show that adaptation to divergent predator regimes is driving ecological speciation as a by-product. Divergence in body shape, coupled with assortative mating for body shape, produces reproductive isolation that is twice as strong between populations inhabiting different predator regimes than between populations that evolved in similar ecological environments. Gathering analogous data on reproductive isolation at the interspecific level in the genus, we find that this mechanism of speciation may have been historically prevalent in Gambusia. These results suggest that speciation in nature can result as a by-product of divergence in ecologically important traits, producing interspecific patterns that persist long after speciation events have completed.     

Evolution of cranial shape in a continental‐scale evolutionary radiation of Australian lizards

A defining character of adaptive radiations is the evolution of a diversity of morphological forms that are associated with the use of different habitats, following the invasion of vacant niches. Island adaptive radiations have been thoroughly investigated but continental scale radiations are more poorly understood. Here, we use 52 species of Australian agamid lizards and their Asian relatives as a model group, and employ three‐dimensional geometric morphometrics to characterize cranial morphology and investigate whether variation in cranial shape reflects patterns expected from the ecological process of adaptive radiation. Phylogenetic affinity, evolutionary allometry, and ecological life habit all play major roles in the evolution of cranial shape in the sampled lizards. We find a significant association between cranial shapes and life habit. Our results are in line with the expectations of an adaptive radiation, and this is the first time detailed geometric morphometric analyses have been used to understand the selective forces that drove an adaptive radiation at a continental scale.     

Phenotypic integration between claw and toepad traits promotes microhabitat specialization in the Anolis adaptive radiation

The performance of an organism in its environment frequently depends more on its composite phenotype than on individual phenotypic traits. Thus, understanding environmental adaptation requires investigating patterns of covariation across functionally related traits. The replicated adaptive radiations of Greater Antillean Anolis lizards are characterized by ecological and morphological convergence, thus, providing an opportunity to examine the role of multiple phenotypes in microhabitat adaptation. Here, we examine integrated claw and toepad morphological evolution in relation to habitat partitioning across the adaptive radiations of Greater Antillean anoles. Based on analysis of 428 specimens from 57 species, we found that different aspects of claw morphology were associated with different perch dimensions, with claw height positively associated with perch diameter and claw curvature positively associated with perch height. Patterns of integration also varied across claw and toepad traits, likely driven by correlative selection for performance on smoother and rougher substrates. Finally, rates of evolution differed between claw and toepad traits, with claw length evolving faster than all other traits despite having no predicted functional importance. Our results highlight the multivariate nature of phenotypic adaptation and suggest that phenotypic integration across Greater Antillean anoles is driven by fine‐scale correlative selection based on structural habitat specialization.     

Population persistence under high mutation rate: From evolutionary rescue to lethal mutagenesis

Populations may genetically adapt to severe stress that would otherwise cause their extirpation. Recent theoretical work, combining stochastic demography with Fisher's geometric model of adaptation, has shown how evolutionary rescue becomes unlikely beyond some critical intensity of stress. Increasing mutation rates may however allow adaptation to more intense stress, raising concerns about the effectiveness of treatments against pathogens. This previous work assumes that populations are rescued by the rise of a single resistance mutation. However, even in asexual organisms, rescue can also stem from the accumulation of multiple mutations in a single genome. Here, we extend previous work to study the rescue process in an asexual population where the mutation rate is sufficiently high so that such events may be common. We predict both the ultimate extinction probability of the population and the distribution of extinction times. We compare the accuracy of different approximations covering a large range of mutation rates. Moderate increase in mutation rates favors evolutionary rescue. However, larger increase leads to extinction by the accumulation of a large mutation load, a process called lethal mutagenesis. We discuss how these results could help design “evolution‐proof” antipathogen treatments that even highly mutable strains could not overcome.     

Development of a novel MATLAB-based framework for implementing mechanical joint stability constraints within OpenSim musculoskeletal models

The Static Optimization (SO) solver in OpenSim estimates muscle activations and forces that only equilibrate applied moments. In this study, SO was enhanced through an open-access MATLAB interface, where calculated muscle activations can additionally satisfy crucial mechanical stability requirements. This Stability-Constrained SO (SCSO) is applicable to many OpenSim models and can potentially produce more biofidelic results than SO alone, especially when antagonistic muscle co-contraction is required to stabilize body joints. This hypothesis was tested using existing models and experimental data in the literature. Muscle activations were calculated by SO and SCSO for a spine model during two series of static trials (i.e. simulation 1 and 2), and also for a lower limb model (supplementary material 2). In simulation 1, symmetric and asymmetric flexion postures were compared, while in simulation 2, various external load heights were compared, where increases in load height did not change the external lumbar flexion moment, but necessitated higher EMG activations. During the tasks in simulation 1, the predicted muscle activations by SCSO demonstrated less average deviation from the EMG data (6.8% −7.5%) compared to those from SO (10.2%). In simulation 2, SO predicts constant muscle activations and forces, while SCSO predicts increases in the average activations of back and abdominal muscles that better match experimental data. Although the SCSO results are sensitive to some parameters (e.g. musculotendon stiffness), when considering the strategy of the central nervous system in distributing muscle forces and in activating antagonistic muscles, the assigned activations by SCSO are more biofidelic than SO.